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Coop Bank - Stocksmaster's 1st Play 2013
stocksmaster
#1 Posted : Wednesday, March 27, 2013 10:55:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 376
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
With the market seeming to have divorced politics from its activities, it is high time i jumped back to this market.

My predictions about KCB hitting Ksh 40 before April 2013 (predicted about 7 months ago:(> 10 % Dividend Yield........my new yard stick in NSE stock picking) seem to have been spot on. I had however exited earlier, based on my cautionary approach regarding the elections. No regrets...... sometimes you have to forgo potential gains in order to preserve capital.

My 1st play for this year is Coop Bank. I have been accumulating it since the beginning of the week at about Ksh 15.

Coop Bank at todays price (Ksh 16.30) is trading at a P/E 8.86 (Compared to Equity - 10.2; KCB - 9.92).

It is also trading at a P/B of about 2.3 which is also lower than the two banks above. It is trading at cum dividend (Dividend of Ksh 0.50 for year ending Dec 2012 which was a 25% rise as compared to dividend for 2011)

Its ROE of about 26% is higher than the sector average of about 23%.

Its Profit after tax (PAT) for year ending Dec 2012 versus Dec 2011 was a rise of 43.7% (compared to Equity PAT 17%; KCB PAT 11%).

It has set a target of doubling its agency network in 2013 from 5,000 to 10,000 agents in Kenya.It is also set to start its South Sudan operations in April 2013 via a joint partnership with the Government of South Sudan. This is a very interesting partnership that should give coop bank a serious competitive advantage in that market.

My price target is a minimum of Ksh 20 once this elections are dusted (a 22% upside potential); and a 12 months target price of Ksh 27.50 based on an estimated EPS of Ksh 2.30 for year ending December 2013.

Happy Hunting.

Twitter:stocksmaster@stocksmaster79
Mukiri
#2 Posted : Wednesday, March 27, 2013 11:03:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 4,554
smile He's back!
Mgaagaa na upwa hali wali mkavu!
Cde Monomotapa
#3 Posted : Wednesday, March 27, 2013 11:06:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,928
@Stocksmaster - A man of honor. Kept* to his brief. Welcome back. smile
mwekez@ji
#4 Posted : Wednesday, March 27, 2013 11:25:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
Welcome back to market @stocksmaster. you missed alot while away but fine pick for your 1st play on your comeback #curtains raised .... coop chips are indeed selling at a discount. may the play yield
muganda
#5 Posted : Thursday, March 28, 2013 6:19:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,713
stocksmaster wrote:
My predictions about KCB hitting Ksh 40 before April 2013 (predicted about 7 months ago:(> 10 % Dividend Yield........my new yard stick in NSE stock picking) seem to have been spot on. I had however exited earlier, based on my cautionary approach regarding the elections. No regrets...... sometimes you have to forgo potential gains in order to preserve capital.

That for me is a real show of mastery. At the moment I'm still ruing all missed opportunities in my short life.


You don't have to move at every opportunity


"The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything -- you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you're a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, 'Swing, you bum!'"
hisah
#6 Posted : Thursday, March 28, 2013 8:34:49 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,958
Welcome back smile

I saw your tweet about insurance firms. Yes, they're risky, but with a smooth election period and some having insured political risk e.g. JHL as well as a re-insurer like Kenya RE, these 2 will spin money. My assumption is if the political covers (1 yr max) won't be triggered.

Btw we should indicate the bank we root for.

@hisah - divorced kcb for member after KCB results disappointed. Also on side seeing CFC @40 from last year. @deal don't blow my cover smile

@deal - member and cfc

@stocksmaster - coop bank

@cde - NBK (balls of steel needed here). Still on kcb?

@guru - still on kcb?

@vvs - city trust = I&M soon to list.

If I made mistakes pls correct. Wengine mko kwa benki gani? @aguy @youcant et al...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
youcan'tstopusnow
#7 Posted : Thursday, March 28, 2013 8:58:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
hisah, Equity, from the lows of Jan 2012.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#8 Posted : Thursday, March 28, 2013 8:59:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,010
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
@Stocksmaster,karibu tena wazua.
My current bank plays are member & coop(see post 123 & 127 on the thread 'Madness at the NSE'

Like @Hisah,i too parted ways with simba. No regrets so farsmile

#makingmoney2013
Markets
Aguytrying
#9 Posted : Thursday, March 28, 2013 10:47:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 4,999
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
hisah, Equity, from the lows of Jan 2012.


@Hisah. Im the conductor at HFCK boarded at Q3 2012 (diamond thread). Im also looking to speculate with some NBK(crocodile eater)
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
guru267
#10 Posted : Thursday, March 28, 2013 10:50:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,585
Location: Nairobi
Quote:
@guru - still on kcb?


Nope!

I divorced KCB and recently boarded Co op @14bob and HFCK @21.50bob! These should outperform in the short, medium and long term!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Cde Monomotapa
#11 Posted : Thursday, March 28, 2013 10:59:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,928
Aguytrying wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
hisah, Equity, from the lows of Jan 2012.


@Hisah. Im the conductor at HFCK boarded at Q3 2012 (diamond thread). Im also looking to speculate with some NBK(crocodile eater)

KCBs of the troughs of similar periods with the Cdes here 11/12 & NBKs of the troughs of Q4 '12.
the deal
#12 Posted : Thursday, March 28, 2013 11:08:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,276
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Some of my plays:

1. Still in the KenGen bus since boarding at 7.50...CFC boarded at 34-40 mark...that one is going to 120...a return of +200% within 1 and 1/2 yeats then I retire smile....I also have Liberty...Umeme.. HF...

2. Still hoping KK will return to profit making ways and the share recovers.

3. Planning to buy more of Liberty and Kenol....since the foreign limit on CFC is up ...I dont know what CMA can do.
stocksmaster
#13 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2013 7:04:38 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 376
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
stocksmaster wrote:
With the market seeming to have divorced politics from its activities, it is high time i jumped back to this market.

My predictions about KCB hitting Ksh 40 before April 2013 (predicted about 7 months ago:(> 10 % Dividend Yield........my new yard stick in NSE stock picking) seem to have been spot on. I had however exited earlier, based on my cautionary approach regarding the elections. No regrets...... sometimes you have to forgo potential gains in order to preserve capital.

My 1st play for this year is Coop Bank. I have been accumulating it since the beginning of the week at about Ksh 15.

Coop Bank at todays price (Ksh 16.30) is trading at a P/E 8.86 (Compared to Equity - 10.2; KCB - 9.92).

It is also trading at a P/B of about 2.3 which is also lower than the two banks above. It is trading at cum dividend (Dividend of Ksh 0.50 for year ending Dec 2012 which was a 25% rise as compared to dividend for 2011)

Its ROE of about 26% is higher than the sector average of about 23%.

Its Profit after tax (PAT) for year ending Dec 2012 versus Dec 2011 was a rise of 43.7% (compared to Equity PAT 17%; KCB PAT 11%).

It has set a target of doubling its agency network in 2013 from 5,000 to 10,000 agents in Kenya.It is also set to start its South Sudan operations in April 2013 via a joint partnership with the Government of South Sudan. This is a very interesting partnership that should give coop bank a serious competitive advantage in that market.

My price target is a minimum of Ksh 20 once this elections are dusted (a 22% upside potential); and a 12 months target price of Ksh 27.50 based on an estimated EPS of Ksh 2.30 for year ending December 2013.

Happy Hunting.

Twitter:stocksmaster@stocksmaster79


The peace dividend should push the coop bank share to trade at a p/e of 11-12 (a share price of Ksh 20-22) in the short term.

Happy hunting.
sparkly
#14 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2013 8:05:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 5,549
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
hisah wrote:


If I made mistakes pls correct. Wengine mko kwa benki gani? @aguy @youcant et al...


I still have many banks on my portfolio. How could avoid these money make makers? I am more of a long termer and these is how my holdings in banks are:

HF - my newest holding, purchased between 13.20 -17.15. This i will ride to 30.

NIC - This has always been in my portfolio for last 5 years. Lightened at 48 in 2010 then took up rights and added between 28-32. Wish i had more cash. Will lighten ex-div. This a counter where encash my returns through capital gains by selling then buying low in next cycle.

KCB - The lion was almost 30% of my portfolio in mid 2012. Been reducing at the major resistance points as we go up. Now halved already. Will divorce completely this year if we hit PE of 10.

BBK - This was my darling in 2008-2010. Bought @ 35-40 enjoyed good div yields lightened at 67 pre-split. Most of the rest has gone @16.50-17.00. Less than 5% of portfolio remaining.

The blue chips look to have topped or almost topped while the smaller caps still have millleage in them. I am selling BBK and KCB and holding HF and NIC.

Cash from BBK and KCB will be used to hunt for bargains in NMG and EABL.

Life is short. Live passionately.
cnn
#15 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2013 8:18:22 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,543
Too much politics ,i had not seen this thread ,let us see how @stockmaster 's strategy works .
I am in HFCK @17.70.....must have got to a top 10 holding on this one .
Pan afric @ 46 and Britak @6.7(although i sold half of it at 9.30).... 8% cash position which i hope i can deploy on Tue .
sparkly
#16 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2013 8:45:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 5,549
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@Stocksmaster how did the USD play go? Do you think we should still buy dollars, as the ICC/ skype presidency still looms?

The NASI is already 20% YTD and many busses have zoomed except for laggards like KQ, KK, Total. In my opinion, if someone missed the rally so far, its best to put the money in fixed income and money market securities and wait for the next round of discounts.

It so hard to find good stocks selling reasonably, unless you now want to go very long term.
What says you?
Life is short. Live passionately.
stocksmaster
#17 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2013 9:12:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 376
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
sparkly wrote:
@Stocksmaster how did the USD play go? Do you think we should still buy dollars, as the ICC/ skype presidency still looms?

The NASI is already 20% YTD and many busses have zoomed except for laggards like KQ, KK, Total. In my opinion, if someone missed the rally so far, its best to put the money in fixed income and money market securities and wait for the next round of discounts.

It so hard to find good stocks selling reasonably, unless you now want to go very long term.
What says you?


@Sparkly: We still hav 2 months before trials......With the foreign powers softening, the USD play may not yield much unless they abscond appearances. The risk for the nse shares market will come from the GoK hunger for cash.

The jubilee govt inheriting of a broke treasury and a KRA unable to hit its targets versus huge devolution costs and a need to implement an ambitious manifesto will surely bring the fixed income and money markets into play especially in the 2nd half of the year.

But in the nxt few weeks, the peace dividend will be paid to the wise investor.

Happy hunting.
mwenza
#18 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2013 9:25:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2009
Posts: 2,863
When the master speaks, people ought to listen.....this particular share will make some people good money in the short term.
IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
guru267
#19 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2013 10:12:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,585
Location: Nairobi
One can hedge 33.33% of their total NSE portfolio in USD to completely protect themselves from euphoria!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
obiero
#20 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2013 10:50:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 6,923
Location: nairobi
mwenza wrote:
When the master speaks, people ought to listen.....this particular share will make some people good money in the short term.

@mwenza the master may have inadvertently misled alot of people with his 1st quarter strategy, usiamini kila kitu unasoma hapa wazua; tumia akili pia. anywho, that said, co-op is not a bad bet
www.winda.co.ke
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