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Kenya Economy Watch
mwekez@ji
#1 Posted : Friday, May 24, 2013 10:50:40 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
The economic survey detailing 2012 performance has been released. During the year, real GDP grew 4.6%, up from 4.4% in the previous year and below Sub-Saharan Africa growth of 4.8%. Average inflation fell from a peak of 14% in 2011 to 9.4% in 2012 and this decline is expected to be sustained further into 2013. Real average earnings however declined 4.8% due to inflation. The labour market grew 5.5% to 659,400 jobs. Jobs created in the formal sector reduced 8.4% while the informal sector grew 7.4%. Informal sector jobs accounted for 89.7% of new jobs while the remainder was formal. On governance, pending cases in court reduced 3.5% to 627,370 while prison population reduced 20.3% to 196,911. Kenya’s trade balance worsened 8.7% to KES 856.8bn as imports grew 5.7% on stable exports. Even though the capital account improved 31.7% to KES 438bn, the current account degenerated 5.6% to KES 359.5bn. The overall balance of payments improved on the previous year as a result of a buildup of reserves by the Central Bank of Kenya.

Financial, retail intermediation and construction were the leading growth sectors in Kenya for 2012 with a growth of 6.5%, 6.4% and 4.8% respectively. Financial intermediation growth slowed from 7.8%, wholesale and retail trade slowed from a growth of 7.3%. Construction rose from 4.3% to 4.8%, boosted by both government spending on infrastructure and private sector. Transport and telecommunications grew 4% (vs 4.7%) while agriculture grew 3.8% (vs 1.5% in 2011), manufacturing 3.1% (vs 3.4% in 2011). As agriculture has the largest weight in GDP contribution, despite the reduction in growth for the other sectors, the economy posted a modest growth. Key crops which contributed to the growth during the year were coffee, maize and wheat with production rising 35%, 16.3% and 53.6%.

Tourist arrivals fell 6.1% to 1.7m with performance being weighed down by reduced traffic from the Euro zone, and on travel advisories brought about by security concerns. During 2012, demand for petroleum products declined 5.7% as a result of reduced thermal generation. Pipeline throughput of white petroleum however rose 14.2% as a result of increased demand both in Kenya and in the region. Electricity energy consumption however grew 2.2% 6,414m KWh. Earnings from railway transport rose 22.4% as a result of higher tariff and restructuring of Rift Valley Railways. Total throughput at the port of Mombasa rose 9.9% to 22m tones. Mobile subscriber base increased 25.3% to 29.7m while internet subscriptions rose 37.1% to 8.5m.

(KNBS, SIB)
mwekez@ji
#2 Posted : Friday, May 24, 2013 12:54:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
Main Sectors Driving the Economy
All the sectors of the economy recorded positive growths of varying magnitudes

Sector | 2011 | 2012
Agriculture & Forestry | 1.5% | 3.8%
Wholesale & Retail Trade | 7.3% | 6.4%
Transport & Communication | 4.7% | 4.0%
Manufacturing | 3.4% | 3.1%
Financial Intermediation | 7.8% | 6.5%
Construction | 4.3% | 4.8%
mwekez@ji
#3 Posted : Friday, May 24, 2013 12:56:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
GDP Growth Rate:

2005; 5.9%
2007; 7.0%
2009; 2.7%
2010; 5.8%
2011; 4.4%
2012; 4.6%
2013; 6.0% (projected)
10% coming soon
mwekez@ji
#4 Posted : Friday, May 24, 2013 12:58:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
KNBS Economic Survey 2013 Highlights >>> http://www.knbs.or.ke/Economic%...omic_Survey_May_2013.pdf
mwekez@ji
#5 Posted : Friday, May 24, 2013 2:00:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
#Bullish >>> The 6% GDP growth forecast for 2013 is the fastest growth rate in 6 years
Kausha
#6 Posted : Friday, May 24, 2013 3:39:08 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 787
Unattainable unless it's nominal. Look 5% is the best case scenario.
ZZE123
#7 Posted : Friday, May 24, 2013 7:01:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/21/2008
Posts: 2,332
The growth in the manufacturing sector is deplorable
The man who marries a beautiful woman, and the farmer who grows corn by the roadside have the same problem
hisah
#8 Posted : Saturday, May 25, 2013 6:04:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,945
Quote:
A decline in real wages in an economy that
expanded by nearly five percentage points means
the growth did not translate into positive earnings
for workers.
The disconnect is seen as having been the main
cause of the wave of labour unrest that began in
2011 and persisted for much of last year. Real
wages dropped by an even larger margin of 8.6 per
cent in 2011.


Labour wars will be the headache for this super GDP expansion wished by the uhuruto administration. Real income is 21% down in 5 years! GDP expansion aiming 10% cannot come forth with such real income declines. Time for the econ thinktank to think outside the box. SMEs must be boosted and nurtured to create more jobs. And that public wage bill must be slashed pronto. Public wages ahead of private wages means enterpreneurship is in the dustbin. Very warped this wage bill scenario.

http://www.businessdaily.../-/ddnuc1z/-/index.html

As well as spending half of your income on basic needs - http://www.businessdaily...8/-/60qfj3z/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
youcan'tstopusnow
#9 Posted : Saturday, May 25, 2013 2:01:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Earnings from the mining
sector grew by 30 per cent last year aided by increased inflows from export of gold, adding lustre to the new ministry in charge of
minerals.
Official data indicate
earnings from minerals stood at Sh27.5 billion last year up from Sh18.3 billion in 2011.
This was driven by the more than doubling of gold proceeds to Sh13.9 billion from Sh5.6 billion, changing tide against non-metal minerals such as soda ash and fluorspar that have dominated the sector.
http://www.businessdaily...62/-/frofl/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mwekez@ji
#10 Posted : Sunday, May 26, 2013 12:50:03 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
mwekez@ji wrote:
#Bullish >>> The 6% GDP growth forecast for 2013 is the fastest growth rate in 6 years


Kausha wrote:
Unattainable unless it's nominal. Look 5% is the best case scenario.


@Kausha, last year was challenging. This year, the platform is well set to attain 6% real GDP growth
mwekez@ji
#11 Posted : Sunday, May 26, 2013 12:52:44 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
ZZE123 wrote:
The growth in the manufacturing sector is deplorable


Watch 2013! And especially Q3 & Q4!!
mwekez@ji
#12 Posted : Sunday, May 26, 2013 1:36:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
hisah wrote:
Quote:
A decline in real wages in an economy that
expanded by nearly five percentage points means
the growth did not translate into positive earnings
for workers.
The disconnect is seen as having been the main
cause of the wave of labour unrest that began in
2011 and persisted for much of last year. Real
wages dropped by an even larger margin of 8.6 per
cent in 2011.


Labour wars will be the headache for this super GDP expansion wished by the uhuruto administration. Real income is 21% down in 5 years! GDP expansion aiming 10% cannot come forth with such real income declines. Time for the econ thinktank to think outside the box. SMEs must be boosted and nurtured to create more jobs. And that public wage bill must be slashed pronto. Public wages ahead of private wages means enterpreneurship is in the dustbin. Very warped this wage bill scenario.

http://www.businessdailyafrica....4/-/ddnuc1z/-/index.html

As well as spending half of your income on basic needs - http://www.businessdailyafrica....8/-/60qfj3z/-/index.html


This labour wars are a headache. May econ fight the good fight
mwekez@ji
#13 Posted : Sunday, May 26, 2013 1:44:03 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Earnings from the mining
sector grew by 30 per cent last year aided by increased inflows from export of gold, adding lustre to the new ministry in charge of
minerals.
Official data indicate
earnings from minerals stood at Sh27.5 billion last year up from Sh18.3 billion in 2011.
This was driven by the more than doubling of gold proceeds to Sh13.9 billion from Sh5.6 billion, changing tide against non-metal minerals such as soda ash and fluorspar that have dominated the sector.
http://www.businessdailyafrica....162/-/frofl/-/index.html

smile I also like the fact we now have a mining ministry and its on the able hands of cabinet secretary najib balala. the chap is an achiever
youcan'tstopusnow
#14 Posted : Sunday, May 26, 2013 6:40:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
mwekez@ji wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Earnings from the mining
sector grew by 30 per cent last year aided by increased inflows from export of gold, adding lustre to the new ministry in charge of
minerals.
Official data indicate
earnings from minerals stood at Sh27.5 billion last year up from Sh18.3 billion in 2011.
This was driven by the more than doubling of gold proceeds to Sh13.9 billion from Sh5.6 billion, changing tide against non-metal minerals such as soda ash and fluorspar that have dominated the sector.
http://www.businessdailyafrica....162/-/frofl/-/index.html

smile I also like the fact we now have a mining ministry and its on the able hands of cabinet secretary najib balala. the chap is an achiever

Those gold earnings are amazing. With the sector garnering more interest, I think Western Kenya especially, has huge potential #BarelyScratchedTheSurface
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mwekez@ji
#15 Posted : Monday, May 27, 2013 12:39:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
KRA collection for April rises to Sh77.2 billion

Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) collected Sh77.2 billion in April, exceeding average monthly tax realised in the first 10 months of the year by Sh22.2 billion.

Tax experts attributed the increase to final instalment tax payments by companies.

“April is a key month because all companies which close their books have to make final their final payments; that will include all banks and insurance companies,” said Nikhil Hira, a tax partner at Deloitte and Touche.

Mr Hira said tax performance in the month of May was not expected to be as impressive but it could pick in June when most companies are expected to pay the second instalment of their estimated tax liability.
mwekez@ji
#16 Posted : Monday, May 27, 2013 1:18:05 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
Kausha
#17 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 11:05:22 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 787
@mwekezaji, which platform are we talking about here? for students of economics we all know policy measures carry a 6-12 month lag when dealing with impact. Not so sure whether the high rates of Oct 2011 - June -2012 have dissipated. Also the only way the economy has appeared to grow over the past 5yrs was via loose non targeted monetary policy! We all know what happened when that came to a heady end. Now perhaps the Monetary authority has the benefit of education and will put on their thinking caps and avoid monetary poligymnastics.
mwekez@ji
#18 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 12:11:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
Kausha wrote:
@mwekezaji, which platform are we talking about here? for students of economics we all know policy measures carry a 6-12 month lag when dealing with impact. Not so sure whether the high rates of Oct 2011 - June -2012 have dissipated. Also the only way the economy has appeared to grow over the past 5yrs was via loose non targeted monetary policy! We all know what happened when that came to a heady end. Now perhaps the Monetary authority has the benefit of education and will put on their thinking caps and avoid monetary poligymnastics.


The platform am talking about comprises of both monetary & fiscal policies. Monetary easing began a while back and expansionary fiscal policy is also on course. This 2 are creating an environment for all the sectors in the economy to prosper. I expect the highest impact of these policies to be felt in Q3 and Q4 where the economy shall grow by more than 6%. … In the meantime, derisking of Kenya post the March 2013 election is doing good to the private and public sector alike. I see money flowing in to grow the private sector and money flowing in to government for econ development
mwekez@ji
#19 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 12:24:47 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
@Kausha, Listen to wholesale and retail sector speak and notice the same sentiments are expressed across all econ sectors

Quote:
Speaking in Nairobi, Nakumatt Holdings Managing Director Atul Shah has said that all indicators show the retail sector will perform even better this year. Among other efforts, he said, property developers are making retail-related investments that will significantly support the sector’s growth.

“At our corporate level, we shall be investing close to Sh1.4 billion in retail network development, particularly at the county level, to support economic devolution and to spur development and job creation.”

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/...emerges-as-key-to-growth
mwekez@ji
#20 Posted : Friday, May 31, 2013 10:42:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,013
Kenya, Rwanda race for middle-income status



Kenya and Rwanda are the only East African countries expected to reach middle-income status by 2025, financial consulting firm Ernst & Young has predicted.

The E&Y projection is based on Kenya’s high foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, infrastructure development and a diversified economy which has set a basis for rapid growth.
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