Home SK - Stocks, Property, Investment Chamas - Investment Groups BIZ - Small Business Soko - Market Wazua Life About Wazua
SIGN IN REGISTER
Wednesday, Apr 26, 2017
NellyData
FEATURE  

LATEST DISCUSSIONS
Kenya Airways...why ignore.. [7359]
Law Capping interest rates [1963]
Safaricom HY17 [99]
directional forecast [1139]
BRITAM FY2016 [17]
KCB buy buy buy [721]
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20 [2626]
The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum [1474]
Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough [1750]
Tatu City Latest [20]
Kenya Economy Watch [1421]
Mall Owners Rush to Get Out of the Mall Business [53]
Deacons FY16 disaster [16]
Centum [246]
Barclays NewGold ETF [3]
 
Forum Jump








Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

57 Pages123>»
directional forecast
karasinga
#1 Posted : Tuesday, March 01, 2016 4:35:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 795
Dear investors.

I have been following the market now for 1 year and want to acknowledge wazuan's for the in depth market information you post here. There is a lot i have learnt and still learning from this site.

Being new, has not been without its challenges and i thought joining & upcoming investors, like me, might be going through the "initial investor's experience" which is common to all of us. The experience aforementioned is different to each of us sometimes depending on prior exposure. It was not easy, initially, to follow through a good trade as many investors may attest. Sometimes buying at the top and getting locked in a position you can hardly liquidate, selling at a loss or at best sell at break even. This made me think of having this topic for us to share our thought on any nse counter for elders to coach the young investors on both technical analysis and fundamentals. Forgive me if i am wrong, i am not aware of a "stock market school" where investors graduate to join the market.

I seek your guidance on this topic:
1. If it has a place here at wazua
2. Whether it is feasible to have such a topic here
3. Whether the topic may have an impact in terms of knowledge sharing.

Regards
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#2 Posted : Wednesday, March 02, 2016 5:23:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 795
To start with. let us look at one counter = kenokobil.
Technical analysis alone no news

Keno was on a downtrend before august 2015 as evident below.


It made a small rally to a high of 9.35, dropped to a low of 7.85. Since then it has been on the rise exceeding the high in the last 52 weeks which was 10.5.
Question 1. Should I be long now? Yes
Question 2. Until which price level? Between 12 and 11.5 or at the most ambitious target of 14
Question 3. Why those levels? Coz we might have a complex or just a simple retracement following profit taking or some kind of news
Question 4. Will the rally be over? No comments for now.
Question 5. Should I sell now? No
This is keno as on 2nd march 2016



STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#3 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 12:15:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 795
Why to buy/hold kcb
Kcb started its 1st Elliott wave on 20th jan 2016 after completing 5 impulse wave downtrend. The expectations after wave 5 are either:
1. ABC correction
2. Start of the 5 impulse wave in uptrend.
Kcb had wave( i) on 25th jan 2016, retraced to wave (ii) on 28th feb 2016 concurring with 61.8% Fibonacci level which is generally accepted as wave two level. The correction to wave (ii) was a zigzag pattern or what is generally referred as bullish gartley pattern by harmonic traders.

Targets projected from wave iv of 5 were, 1st target 40.5 and 2nd target 41.4 and 3rd 44.3
Wave (iii) started on 28th jan 2016 to 9th feb 2016 making its five impulse waves as shown on the chart below and ended at a high of 41.25 missing our projected target by 0.15 cents
Targets projected from the zigzag pattern on wave (ii) were 1st 39.4, 2nd 39.94, 3rd 41.4. Both 1st and 2nd target were exceeded. But missed the 3rdtarget with only 0.15 cents.
The altenative wave count is as shown on the chart below

Retracement started from a high of 41.25 to a low of 39 forming a complex and overlapping pattern (? Triangle). The low was 50% of wave 5 and 1 forming wave (2 or B) or 61.8% of wave (ii) and (iii) ruling out wave (iv) as shown below.

Rulling out wave (iv)


So now we are left with two options. We are expecting either wave 3 or wave c

Where are we on kcb wave?


Wave (i) of 3 or (i) of C ended at high of 42. Wave (ii) of 3 or (ii) of C is in the making. The end is expected at either 50% retracement (40.5) or 61.8% of (2 or B) TO ((i) of 3 or (i) of C) = (40.1).
Projected sell Targets will depend on the low that might be made on Monday 14th March 2016. If a low of 40.1 will be hit, then
1st target = 42.5
2nd = 43.2
3rd =45
4th = 48


STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
murchr
#4 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 6:34:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 10,711
Cool!
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
karasinga
#5 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 9:05:50 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 795
let me update keno. i hope i am not late

these were my remarks on 2nd march 2016."It made a small rally to a high of 9.35, dropped to a low of 7.85. Since then it has been on the rise exceeding the high in the last 52 weeks which was 10.5.
Question 1. Should I be long now? Yes
Question 2. Until which price level? Between 12 and 11.5 or at the most ambitious target of 14
Question 3. Why those levels? Coz we might have a complex or just a simple retracement following profit taking or some kind of news
Question 4. Will the rally be over? No comments for now.
Question 5. Should I sell now? No"

below is the updated chart label which shows we might have hit wave 5 of c or wave 5 of 3 or b of wave 4.

if we have hit the first two probable wave count(5 of c or wave 5 of 3), it is time to sell.
if we have wave c of 4 in the making, its is going to be messy down and you might not like the ride.
regards


STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 3:56:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 13,061
Location: Nairobi
@karasingha - In English, please.

You said: "if we have hit the first two probable wave count(5 of c or wave 5 of 3), it is time to sell.
if we have wave c of 4 in the making, its is going to be messy down and you might not like the ride."

1) Have we hit "5 of c or wave 5 of 3"? ... There's no point in telling me there is a pothole AFTER I have hit it.
2) So would you sell as of Friday at 10.60? Yes or No. [Not the "sell if it rains on Monday between 2pm-3pm in Langata but it doesn't count if you don't get wet because you had an umbrella" predictions.
3) After we have definite answers, let's chat on Friday [18th] after the results are released.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#7 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 8:03:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 4,981
@VVS. This Is just entertainment for me after the ups and downs I've faced with Kenol. We all know the future direction of the stock way way up. So any downward movement now it a chance to add more on the cheap. We've said this so many time at risk of being broken records
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
karasinga
#8 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 8:19:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 795
@vituvingisana.
my analysis MIGHT be wrong especially wave count or the comment i made. but b4 we wait for 18th, let us do a deeper postmortem of the data we have currently and have all the possibilities b4 hand. let me explain.

when i said ""if we have hit the first two probable wave count(5 of c or wave 5 of 3), it is time to sell." this is what was in my mind. if the rally keno has been on since july 28th 2015(kindly refer to my first post i made concerning keno), then we have two options in offing.
1. corrective wave up. ie ABC
2. 1st 5 impulse up

having said that, so far we have completed either ( 3 of 3 or 3 of c). that means we have the following waves remaining
1. correction of wave 4 of 3 or 4 of c THEN
2. wave 5 of 3 or 5 of c THEN
3. wave 4 then
4. wave 5
in wave 4 correction,this should be in mind. If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. so do we have wave 4 of 3 or 4 of c in place already? could be yes could be no.this is because we still have another possibility, wave A OF 4. This said and done, the high of 11 made on 2nd march 2016 exceeded the 1st target of 10.96 by 0.04 making a bearish RSI(14) divergence(when RSI peaks that diverge within a short spread apart is a strong signal) as below.


a closer look on the chart


a closer look on the RSI


what are possible wave count that ended @ 11?
1. wave 5 of 3 or
2. wave 5 of c or
3. wave b of 4

if we hit the wave 5 of 3 then we are making wave 4 of 3. when i said it might be messy is because wave 4 tend to form complex wave(triangle or single or double zigzag) and may take time b4 it is done. the decision to sell will depend on the type of trader you are. if a long term trader, you can wait until we hit wave 5 of 5 or 5 of c. if a short term/swing trader, you can sell and buy at a lower price and ride on a rally that would end wave 3. still there would be wave 4 and 5 to complete the 5 impulse wave that started on july 28th 2015(5 IMPULSE WAVE).NOTE: wave 3 is always associated with good news.

if we hit wave 5 of c, then that might be the end of keno rally(corrective wave ABC) and so a 5 impulse wave will start downward.and "its is going to be messy down and you might not like the ride"

if we hit wave b of 4, then we have the last wave of wave 4 of 3 that would follow a rally that would would end the end of wave 3. still there would be wave 4 and 5 to complete the 5 impulse wave that started on july 28th 2015(5 IMPULSE WAVE).

hope i explained my analysis better now. I still welcome anyone's opinion and inputs on my analysis. Apologies for late analysis


STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
enyands
#9 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 8:49:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,226
Location: kenya
karasinga wrote:
@vituvingisana.
my analysis MIGHT be wrong especially wave count or the comment i made. but b4 we wait for 18th, let us do a deeper postmortem of the data we have currently and have all the possibilities b4 hand. let me explain.

when i said ""if we have hit the first two probable wave count(5 of c or wave 5 of 3), it is time to sell." this is what was in my mind. if the rally keno has been on since july 28th 2015(kindly refer to my first post i made concerning keno), then we have two options in offing.
1. corrective wave up. ie ABC
2. 1st 5 impulse up

having said that, so far we have completed either ( 3 of 3 or 3 of c). that means we have the following waves remaining
1. correction of wave 4 of 3 or 4 of c THEN
2. wave 5 of 3 or 5 of c THEN
3. wave 4 then
4. wave 5
in wave 4 correction,this should be in mind. If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. so do we have wave 4 of 3 or 4 of c in place already? could be yes could be no.this is because we still have another possibility, wave A OF 4. This said and done, the high of 11 made on 2nd march 2016 exceeded the 1st target of 10.96 by 0.04 making a bearish RSI(14) divergence as below.


a closer look on the chart


a closer look on the RSI


what are possible wave count that ended @ 11?
1. wave 5 of 3 or
2. wave 5 of c or
3. wave b of 4

if we hit the wave 5 of 3 then we are making wave 4 of 3. when i said it might be messy is because wave 4 tend to form complex wave(triangle or single or double zigzag) and may take time b4 it is done. the decision to sell will depend on the type of trader you are. if a long term trader, you can wait until we hit wave 5 of 5 or 5 of c. if a short term/swing trader, you can sell and buy at a lower price and ride on a rally that would end wave 3. still there would be wave 4 and 5 to complete the 5 impulse wave that started on july 28th 2015(5 IMPULSE WAVE).NOTE: wave 3 is always associated with good news.

if we hit wave 5 of c, then that might be the end of keno rally(corrective wave ABC) and so a 5 impulse wave will start downward.and "its is going to be messy down and you might not like the ride"

if we hit wave b of 4, then we have the last wave of wave 4 of 3 that would follow a rally that would would end the end of wave 3. still there would be wave 4 and 5 to complete the 5 impulse wave that started on july 28th 2015(5 IMPULSE WAVE).

hope i explained my analysis better now. I still welcome anyone's opinion and inputs on my analysis. Apologies for late analysis


STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis



Dude you good ,technical and open minded . I'm not a pro with this kinda analysis but I love your open minded take on criticism .Kudos to you !!! We wish you can do the same to other stocks too
murchr
#10 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 10:02:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 10,711
So @karasinga just to check if am getting you right,....the expected high is 14?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
karasinga
#11 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 10:42:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 795
@murchr
with the data at our disposal, i can only project targets already on my chart. the best projection of the targets will be made when we have a defined wave 4 of 3 or 4 of c. currently there are around three options available to us which might not offer a good base for projecting. but don't be surprised if keno hit the aforementioned target. 14 was to keep us focused higher and prevent us from entirely alighting this ride prematurely. let me try to keep us updated on the progress of this counter. otherwise i am grateful for your concern.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
murchr
#12 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 11:16:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 10,711
karasinga wrote:
@murchr
with the data at our disposal, i can only project targets already on my chart. the best projection of the targets will be made when we have a defined wave 4 of 3 or 4 of c. currently there are around three options available to us which might not offer a good base for projecting. but don't be surprised if keno hit the aforementioned target. 14 was to keep us focused higher and prevent us from entirely alighting this ride prematurely. let me try to keep us updated on the progress of this counter. otherwise i am grateful for your concern.


I am planning to play trader with KK sell and buy periodically so this kind of analysis will help. Thanks a bunch.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 11:27:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 13,061
Location: Nairobi
@karasingha - This is too complex for my little brain. I am going to stick to fundamental analysis but I will keep on popping in to see what's happening. Cheers!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
karasinga
#14 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 11:45:36 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 795
@ murchr
that kind of trading is what they call swing trading. i dont known what wazuan's recommendation are regarding swing trading vs buy and hold. i will try to post up to date charts to see where we are going.

@ vituvingisana
my apologies if this information in any way was too complex for you. stick around may be the technical analysis may start solving some of the dilemmas you might have had, if any,in the past.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#15 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2016 5:51:27 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 795
@enyands
i too am not a pro. just giving what i have on my charts and also what i saw lacking on this site. could be the time has come for us to start combining both fundamentals and technicals.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
shiznit
#16 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2016 10:40:25 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/21/2013
Posts: 39
Location: KENYA
karasinga wrote:
@enyands
i too am not a pro. just giving what i have on my charts and also what i saw lacking on this site. could be the time has come for us to start combining both fundamentals and technicals.


I agree, maybe some of the more experienced with charts and all should start a knowledge sharing thread, not even necessarily for forecasting those on the NSE but to help guys get a gist of it all.

Or does someone have any pointers?
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
kasibitta
#17 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2016 11:37:11 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/7/2014
Posts: 155
@karasinga...quite commendable.If only i understood even half of the kind of analysis ability you got...

I will be here cheering you on and learning.Keep posting.
murchr
#18 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2016 4:58:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 10,711
karasinga wrote:
@ murchr
that kind of trading is what they call swing trading. i dont known what wazuan's recommendation are regarding swing trading vs buy and hold. i will try to post up to date charts to see where we are going.

@ vituvingisana
my apologies if this information in any way was too complex for you. stick around may be the technical analysis may start solving some of the dilemmas you might have had, if any,in the past.


@karasinga...the so many wazua are traders, but they are currently chasing money in other markets. The market setting right now doesn't allow very active trading anyway (T+3 Settlement). So I will be timing the markets as the price swings. In other news KK hit Kes 11.xy today.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
karasinga
#19 Posted : Tuesday, March 15, 2016 9:45:10 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 795
Let us have a look at btak

With the data i have, btak has been on a down trend since sept 23rd 2014 @ a high of 40. The elliot wave count below shows 4 complete waves and wave 5 in the making.

If you look more closely, after wave 4 retracement(which ended @ a high of 21 on 11th august 2015) we had the 1st wave down to a low of 15(making wave 1 of 5) as on 27th august 2015 then retraced to a high of 18 = a 50% fib level(making wave 2 of 5. Btak later dropped further to a low of 14.2 on 15th oct 2015. A retracement followed to a high of 17 = 61.8% fib level. This rules out possibility of this high being wave 4 of 5 and makes us think of an alternative wave count which retraces to such levels. This can only be wave (ii) of 3 and thus the low of 14.2 was wave (i) of 3. This tells us we will have an extended wave 3 of 5. That has been evident as shown below.
Wave (iii) of 3 followed at a low 10.7 on 22nd jan 2016 then retraced to a high of 12.8( making wave (iv) of 3) as on 5th feb 2016.



Where are we.

Wave (v) of 3 is on the making which will complete the extended wave 3 of 5.
Will we hit have the bottom when complete wave 3 of 5? No

Expectation.
If our wave count are right and we have end of wave 3 of 5 in place, then we will have a rally that will terminate @ either 38.2%(13.5) or 23.6%(12.5) of wave 2 of 5 and 3 of 5. Wave 5 of 5 might be lower than the current price and might be the best buy levels to either;
1st target 10 to 10.5
2nd target 9.6 to 9.4

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Spikes
#20 Posted : Tuesday, March 15, 2016 10:08:36 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 1,744
karasinga wrote:
Let us have a look at btak

With the data i have, btak has been on a down trend since sept 23rd 2014 @ a high of 40. The elliot wave count below shows 4 complete waves and wave 5 in the making.

If you look more closely, after wave 4 retracement(which ended @ a high of 21 on 11th august 2015) we had the 1st wave down to a low of 15(making wave 1 of 5) as on 27th august 2015 then retraced to a high of 18 = a 50% fib level(making wave 2 of 5. Btak later dropped further to a low of 14.2 on 15th oct 2015. A retracement followed to a high of 17 = 61.8% fib level. This rules out possibility of this high being wave 4 of 5 and makes us think of an alternative wave count which retraces to such levels. This can only be wave (ii) of 3 and thus the low of 14.2 was wave (i) of 3. This tells us we will have an extended wave 3 of 5. That has been evident as shown below.
Wave (iii) of 3 followed at a low 10.7 on 22nd jan 2016 then retraced to a high of 12.8( making wave (iv) of 3) as on 5th feb 2016.



Where are we.

Wave (v) of 3 is on the making which will complete the extended wave 3 of 5.
Will we hit have the bottom when complete wave 3 of 5? No

Expectation.
If our wave count are right and we have end of wave 3 of 5 in place, then we will have a rally that will terminate @ either 38.2%(13.5) or 23.6%(12.5) of wave 2 of 5 and 3 of 5. Wave 5 of 5 might be lower than the current price and might be the best buy levels to either;
1st target 10 to 10.5
2nd target 9.6 to 9.4

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis





http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...625&p=22#post717715

I was absolutely correct with my prophecy.


Unless you dismantle systems of men, you will never succeed!
Users browsing this topic
Guest (10)
57 Pages123>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Home | . .. Investor | .. . Groups | .. . SME | . . . Market | .. . Club SK | . ..... About Wazua | . .. Search | . ..Sitemap | . ..Support | . ..Disclaimer | . ..Privacy Policy | . ..Terms of Use | . .. Contact Us
Copyright © 2017 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.