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2018 Best Stock To Own......What's Your Prediction?
sparkly
#201 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 7:46:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 6,428
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@VVS I know you dont trust Meralli but what do you think of Sasini Fundamentals? They are diversifying into high value macademia and avocados.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Horton
#202 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 8:33:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,266
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
HY2 2018 not good for stocks.

I have re-invested my HY1 capital gains and dividends in NMG, NIC and HAFR. Now waiting for 2019.

My portfolio is as follows:

Stock - ABP - % Portfolio

1. Kengen - KES 6.64 - 24%.

2. Stanbic - KES 96.5 - 15%. Tier 2

3. TPS - KES 28.6 - 15%. Tier 2

4. Kenya Re - KES 18.8 - 14%.
Core
5. NMG - KES 92.2 - 14%.

6. NIC - KES 29.6 - 11%. Tier 2

7. HAFR - KES 1.09 - 7%.

Ready for 2019.

Apart from those listed, we have little in common! The Tier 2 are less than 5% each of my portfolio and bought a few years back.


@VVS what are your core holdings apart from Kenya Re? ... KK, I&M, WTK

Unga - Profitable and pays a dividend
KK - Profitable and pays a dividend
I&M [Banks in general including Equity, NIC, Stanbic] Profitable and pays a dividend

WTK/KAPC is Tier 2 (was Tier 1) at the moment. I became queasy when the "land grabs" started with demands for not renewing leases. Most of their farms are in Nandi/RV where we have seen political violence erupt often.
I like the business even though it is cyclical BUT the farms can disappear in 2023.
Think Zimbabwe and now SA.

I will have to find replacements for Unga and KK if they get taken out but let's not run ahead of ourselves. I am waiting for Rubis to complete their takeover. Unga is tougher but I can wait.


You don't have any of the big caps in your Portfolio.


And u wrote off arm ? What happened to OLYMPIA? U cash out of that?
Yes and Yes. Years ago, I did a "purge" and got rid of most of the shares in "bandia" firms.
KQ, OCHL, Uchumi (at a profit), ADSS, etc.
Like many investors, I used to buy everything... BAD MISTAKE.
I went to Buffettian principles, and cleaned house, and reduced my holdings to a max of 15 but only 5 constituted 75%-90%.

WTK was one of the 5 but I cashed out. I returned to KAPC/WTK in a small way recently. I also sold Equity at a profit.

I may end up selling my KK and Unga in 2019 which will leave me with KenRe and I&M.

Replacements: Centum [been buying slowly], Equity, KAPC/WTK, Safaricom [sub-25]
Note that all are currently profitable and pay a dividend though WTK/KAPC profits (& dividends) are cyclical.


Centum-they seem to value employees more than shareholders.Employees are paid billions in bonuses while shareholders are paid some millions in dividends.
Yes and No. Look at Safcom where the dividend/share may seem low but the aggregate dividend is huge. BTW, Mworia is a top 10 shareholder in Centum.



Seems like you haven’t learnt your lesson regarding NAV. Remember NAV can be fudged as we saw recently. Not sure about the valuations centum have and how much of it is bias. Tread carefully here, I had invested here until I saw the light. I pulled the plug at a small profit but it was purely luck. This stock as Ericsson has pointed out severally has more than meets the eye.
I own shares in KCB,CYTONN, BRK.B and a few other unlisted companies
VituVingiSana
#203 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 9:49:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,908
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
@VVS I know you dont trust Meralli but what do you think of Sasini Fundamentals? They are diversifying into high value macademia and avocados.
I do not know.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#204 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 10:00:17 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,908
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
HY2 2018 not good for stocks.

I have re-invested my HY1 capital gains and dividends in NMG, NIC and HAFR. Now waiting for 2019.

My portfolio is as follows:

Stock - ABP - % Portfolio

1. Kengen - KES 6.64 - 24%.

2. Stanbic - KES 96.5 - 15%. Tier 2

3. TPS - KES 28.6 - 15%. Tier 2

4. Kenya Re - KES 18.8 - 14%.
Core
5. NMG - KES 92.2 - 14%.

6. NIC - KES 29.6 - 11%. Tier 2

7. HAFR - KES 1.09 - 7%.

Ready for 2019.

Apart from those listed, we have little in common! The Tier 2 are less than 5% each of my portfolio and bought a few years back.


@VVS what are your core holdings apart from Kenya Re? ... KK, I&M, WTK

Unga - Profitable and pays a dividend
KK - Profitable and pays a dividend
I&M [Banks in general including Equity, NIC, Stanbic] Profitable and pays a dividend

WTK/KAPC is Tier 2 (was Tier 1) at the moment. I became queasy when the "land grabs" started with demands for not renewing leases. Most of their farms are in Nandi/RV where we have seen political violence erupt often.
I like the business even though it is cyclical BUT the farms can disappear in 2023.
Think Zimbabwe and now SA.

I will have to find replacements for Unga and KK if they get taken out but let's not run ahead of ourselves. I am waiting for Rubis to complete their takeover. Unga is tougher but I can wait.


You don't have any of the big caps in your Portfolio.


And u wrote off arm ? What happened to OLYMPIA? U cash out of that?
Yes and Yes. Years ago, I did a "purge" and got rid of most of the shares in "bandia" firms.
KQ, OCHL, Uchumi (at a profit), ADSS, etc.
Like many investors, I used to buy everything... BAD MISTAKE.
I went to Buffettian principles, and cleaned house, and reduced my holdings to a max of 15 but only 5 constituted 75%-90%.

WTK was one of the 5 but I cashed out. I returned to KAPC/WTK in a small way recently. I also sold Equity at a profit.

I may end up selling my KK and Unga in 2019 which will leave me with KenRe and I&M.

Replacements: Centum [been buying slowly], Equity, KAPC/WTK, Safaricom [sub-25]
Note that all are currently profitable and pay a dividend though WTK/KAPC profits (& dividends) are cyclical.


Centum-they seem to value employees more than shareholders.Employees are paid billions in bonuses while shareholders are paid some millions in dividends.
Yes and No. Look at Safcom where the dividend/share may seem low but the aggregate dividend is huge. BTW, Mworia is a top 10 shareholder in Centum.



Seems like you haven’t learnt your lesson regarding NAV. Remember NAV can be fudged as we saw recently. Not sure about the valuations centum have and how much of it is bias. Tread carefully here, I had invested here until I saw the light. I pulled the plug at a small profit but it was purely luck. This stock as Ericsson has pointed out severally has more than meets the eye.
I'll will keep my ear to the ground BUT I am not in a (cash) position to switch at the moment. The stated NAV is 73/- and current price is 30/-.

Cash and cashflow are very important and currently Centum has sufficient cashflow to manage its OPEX.

Fudging: NAV, EPS, etc can all be fudged. Many years ago, KCB used to announce huge EPS (low PER) but it was all fake.

I do trust Mworia but I am also open to changing my mind.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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