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4 Pages<1234>
NBK- a junk stock?
obiero
#41 Posted : Friday, January 19, 2018 10:41:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
deadpoet wrote:
what happened to the merger talks with consolidated bank? or KCB's proposed buyout?

merger of state banks still on track
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
Ebenyo
#42 Posted : Friday, January 19, 2018 1:46:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,459
Location: Kitale
deadpoet wrote:
what happened to the merger talks with consolidated bank? or KCB's proposed buyout?



It has to be factored in the FY 17 results.After results announcement,it will be clear on the way forward.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Wororo
#43 Posted : Friday, January 19, 2018 5:07:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/30/2011
Posts: 201
obiero
#44 Posted : Friday, January 19, 2018 5:41:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
Wororo wrote:

It has wiped out the little profit left on the table, not to mention consumer confidence
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
Ericsson
#45 Posted : Saturday, January 20, 2018 9:50:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,968
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
deadpoet wrote:
what happened to the merger talks with consolidated bank? or KCB's proposed buyout?

merger of state banks still on track

Wazi captain
KCB has the necessary cash to acquire the good book of NBK.
If they request a rights issue debe tutajaza
obiero
#46 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2018 6:31:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
deadpoet wrote:
what happened to the merger talks with consolidated bank? or KCB's proposed buyout?

merger of state banks still on track

Wazi captain
KCB has the necessary cash to acquire the good book of NBK.
If they request a rights issue debe tutajaza

Junk kabisa.. Hope @maka has 100% provisions such as @vvs
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
obiero
#47 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2018 6:34:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
People... NBK is doing OK... the question is NOT whether NBK is a junk stock (IMHO, it is not)... the question is of PRICE...

Is NBK worth the 48/-??? Or more? Or less?

Paka (as I argued in another forum is not worthless... just not worth 4/-)...

Sidestepping wazua folks since 2010.. Wewe mzee nakucheki
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
VituVingiSana
#48 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2018 9:50:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,101
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
People... NBK is doing OK... the question is NOT whether NBK is a junk stock (IMHO, it is not)... the question is of PRICE...

Is NBK worth the 48/-??? Or more? Or less?

Paka (as I argued in another forum is not worthless... just not worth 4/-)...

Sidestepping wazua folks since 2010.. Wewe mzee nakucheki

Times change. Use context.

IBM was the powerhouse once. It isn't today.
Microsoft was king once. It isn't today.
BBK was by far the largest (most profitable) bank once. No more.
Heck, KQ was a prince once. Flying high. It's broke today. Bankrupt. Again.

NBK was worth something back then. It was a question of price/value.
Same with Paka, just not worth 4/- then or now.

Safaricom was a laggard one day. It's the king today.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
whiteowl
#49 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2018 10:04:32 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,300
Location: Bohemian Grove
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
People... NBK is doing OK... the question is NOT whether NBK is a junk stock (IMHO, it is not)... the question is of PRICE...

Is NBK worth the 48/-??? Or more? Or less?

Paka (as I argued in another forum is not worthless... just not worth 4/-)...

Sidestepping wazua folks since 2010.. Wewe mzee nakucheki

Times change. Use context.

IBM was the powerhouse once. It isn't today.
Microsoft was king once. It isn't today.
BBK was by far the largest (most profitable) bank once. No more.
Heck, KQ was a prince once. Flying high. It's broke today. Bankrupt. Again.

NBK was worth something back then. It was a question of price/value.
Same with Paka, just not worth 4/- then or now.

Safaricom was a laggard one day. It's the king today.


I remember making over 50% gains on this monkey in a span of a few months back in 2013.Munir was blowing lots of hot air and winning awards for transforming the bank via rebranding and cooking books.Times do change.
maka
#50 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2018 11:37:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 10,841
Location: Nairobi
whiteowl wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
People... NBK is doing OK... the question is NOT whether NBK is a junk stock (IMHO, it is not)... the question is of PRICE...

Is NBK worth the 48/-??? Or more? Or less?

Paka (as I argued in another forum is not worthless... just not worth 4/-)...

Sidestepping wazua folks since 2010.. Wewe mzee nakucheki

Times change. Use context.

IBM was the powerhouse once. It isn't today.
Microsoft was king once. It isn't today.
BBK was by far the largest (most profitable) bank once. No more.
Heck, KQ was a prince once. Flying high. It's broke today. Bankrupt. Again.

NBK was worth something back then. It was a question of price/value.
Same with Paka, just not worth 4/- then or now.

Safaricom was a laggard one day. It's the king today.


I remember making over 50% gains on this monkey in a span of a few months back in 2013.Munir was blowing lots of hot air and winning awards for transforming the bank via rebranding and cooking books.Times do change.


Ukora tu... They kulad the bank proper...
possunt quia posse videntur
obiero
#51 Posted : Wednesday, October 31, 2018 6:17:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
maka wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
People... NBK is doing OK... the question is NOT whether NBK is a junk stock (IMHO, it is not)... the question is of PRICE...

Is NBK worth the 48/-??? Or more? Or less?

Paka (as I argued in another forum is not worthless... just not worth 4/-)...

Sidestepping wazua folks since 2010.. Wewe mzee nakucheki

Times change. Use context.

IBM was the powerhouse once. It isn't today.
Microsoft was king once. It isn't today.
BBK was by far the largest (most profitable) bank once. No more.
Heck, KQ was a prince once. Flying high. It's broke today. Bankrupt. Again.

NBK was worth something back then. It was a question of price/value.
Same with Paka, just not worth 4/- then or now.

Safaricom was a laggard one day. It's the king today.


I remember making over 50% gains on this monkey in a span of a few months back in 2013.Munir was blowing lots of hot air and winning awards for transforming the bank via rebranding and cooking books.Times do change.


Ukora tu... They kulad the bank proper...

NBK KES 4.40 and HF KES 5.60 in a race to the bottom.. NSE is turning more and more people into ‘paupers’
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
whiteowl
#52 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 12:31:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,300
Location: Bohemian Grove
All charges against Munir dropped,they are even considering making him a state witness.Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
obiero
#53 Posted : Monday, November 26, 2018 9:27:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
Worse than junk. It's a decaying stock
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
MaichBlack
#54 Posted : Monday, November 26, 2018 9:39:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,192
MaichBlack wrote:
Kaffir wrote:
This stock is going to kill people. Volumes are higher than average, at a price higher than the fundamentals can support.


@Kaffir - I can't agree with you more. Traders might make money from this stock but any investor buying into it at the current prices either has inside information or is a serious gambler!!

The current price has factored in the best case scenario of the shares conversion/privatization tussle. And things could go terribly wrong! This is a classical case of high risk - low return. Even a sane gambler wouldn't like to find himself in such a situation.

No matter how things turn out, this is one stock I would rather observe from outside! There are better options out there.

Back in 2010....
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#55 Posted : Monday, November 26, 2018 9:42:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,192
MaichBlack wrote:
Let me try some mathematics to put things in perspective.

Price before announcement/bonus shares: 40/=

Multiply that by 5 (no. [ratio] of share b4 split)
5 * 40 = 200/=

Current price (after bonus): 44/=

Multiply that by 7 (no. [ratio] of share after split)
7 * 44 = 308/=

Difference: 308 - 200 = 108

Now divide that by the original 5 shares:
108 / 5 = 21.6/=

Anyone buying the shares today at 44/= is actually paying a whooping kshs. 21.60/= more (50% more) on the 'original' shares.

Does NBKs performance justify this? Not really. Just compare their EPS (sub 6/=?) to the value above. Does forescast on future performance justify it? Nope! Unless there is some inside info I'm not privy to, I don't see this going very well for guys getting in now.

But then again, I could be wrong. Anyway, when I'm in doubt, I keep off. Better loose a 50% chance of making money (not much the way I see it) than get into a deal where you have a (very realistic) 50% chance of loosing it!!!

Still in 2010....
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
obiero
#56 Posted : Monday, November 26, 2018 12:29:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Let me try some mathematics to put things in perspective.

Price before announcement/bonus shares: 40/=

Multiply that by 5 (no. [ratio] of share b4 split)
5 * 40 = 200/=

Current price (after bonus): 44/=

Multiply that by 7 (no. [ratio] of share after split)
7 * 44 = 308/=

Difference: 308 - 200 = 108

Now divide that by the original 5 shares:
108 / 5 = 21.6/=

Anyone buying the shares today at 44/= is actually paying a whooping kshs. 21.60/= more (50% more) on the 'original' shares.

Does NBKs performance justify this? Not really. Just compare their EPS (sub 6/=?) to the value above. Does forescast on future performance justify it? Nope! Unless there is some inside info I'm not privy to, I don't see this going very well for guys getting in now.

But then again, I could be wrong. Anyway, when I'm in doubt, I keep off. Better loose a 50% chance of making money (not much the way I see it) than get into a deal where you have a (very realistic) 50% chance of loosing it!!!

Still in 2010....

Si hii ni krimino!
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
Ericsson
#57 Posted : Monday, November 26, 2018 1:30:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,968
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Let me try some mathematics to put things in perspective.

Price before announcement/bonus shares: 40/=

Multiply that by 5 (no. [ratio] of share b4 split)
5 * 40 = 200/=

Current price (after bonus): 44/=

Multiply that by 7 (no. [ratio] of share after split)
7 * 44 = 308/=

Difference: 308 - 200 = 108

Now divide that by the original 5 shares:
108 / 5 = 21.6/=

Anyone buying the shares today at 44/= is actually paying a whooping kshs. 21.60/= more (50% more) on the 'original' shares.

Does NBKs performance justify this? Not really. Just compare their EPS (sub 6/=?) to the value above. Does forescast on future performance justify it? Nope! Unless there is some inside info I'm not privy to, I don't see this going very well for guys getting in now.

But then again, I could be wrong. Anyway, when I'm in doubt, I keep off. Better loose a 50% chance of making money (not much the way I see it) than get into a deal where you have a (very realistic) 50% chance of loosing it!!!

Still in 2010....

Si hii ni krimino!


Na bado the worst is yet to be seen
Ericsson
#58 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2018 3:03:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,968
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Let me try some mathematics to put things in perspective.

Price before announcement/bonus shares: 40/=

Multiply that by 5 (no. [ratio] of share b4 split)
5 * 40 = 200/=

Current price (after bonus): 44/=

Multiply that by 7 (no. [ratio] of share after split)
7 * 44 = 308/=

Difference: 308 - 200 = 108

Now divide that by the original 5 shares:
108 / 5 = 21.6/=

Anyone buying the shares today at 44/= is actually paying a whooping kshs. 21.60/= more (50% more) on the 'original' shares.

Does NBKs performance justify this? Not really. Just compare their EPS (sub 6/=?) to the value above. Does forescast on future performance justify it? Nope! Unless there is some inside info I'm not privy to, I don't see this going very well for guys getting in now.

But then again, I could be wrong. Anyway, when I'm in doubt, I keep off. Better loose a 50% chance of making money (not much the way I see it) than get into a deal where you have a (very realistic) 50% chance of loosing it!!!

Still in 2010....

Si hii ni krimino!


Should be split up,sold,delisted and deregistered
drogon
#59 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2018 5:43:36 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/28/2018
Posts: 13
Location: Nairobi
Q3 results PDF


https://nationalbank.co.ke/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/National-Bank-Financials.pdf

National Bank of Kenya's NBK after-tax earnings in the first nine months of trading ended September 2018 dropped by 84 per cent to Sh21.97 million owing to reduced lending.

The decline, from the previous year’s Sh138 million, was mainly driven by reduced interest and non-interest income. While interest income shrunk by 10.5 per cent to Sh6.32 billion, non-interest income dropped by 16.3 per cent to Sh1.51 billion.

Loans and advances to customers dropped by Sh9.9 billion or 17 per cent to Sh48 billion when compared to last year’s nine month position of Sh57.88 billion. This knocked down its interest income from loans and advances by 18 per cent to Sh3.09 billion.
Angelica _ann
#60 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2018 7:28:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 9,838
drogon wrote:
Q3 results PDF


https://nationalbank.co.ke/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/National-Bank-Financials.pdf

National Bank of Kenya's NBK after-tax earnings in the first nine months of trading ended September 2018 dropped by 84 per cent to Sh21.97 million owing to reduced lending.

The decline, from the previous year’s Sh138 million, was mainly driven by reduced interest and non-interest income. While interest income shrunk by 10.5 per cent to Sh6.32 billion, non-interest income dropped by 16.3 per cent to Sh1.51 billion.

Loans and advances to customers dropped by Sh9.9 billion or 17 per cent to Sh48 billion when compared to last year’s nine month position of Sh57.88 billion. This knocked down its interest income from loans and advances by 18 per cent to Sh3.09 billion.


With all those resources, they could only manage 21m, yaani 21 million. Bure kabisa.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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