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Kenya Power FY 2017/2018
KaunganaDoDo
#101 Posted : Monday, November 05, 2018 1:18:58 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/6/2018
Posts: 86
Ericsson wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001301346/turkana-project-to-earn-firm-billions
Lake Turkana Wind Power project (LTWP) will now sell electricity to Kenya Power at a 50 per cent discounted rate, it has emerged. The arrangement, however, comes with a rider that the power distributor’s purchases from the firm’s Marsabit wind farm will have to cross a certain threshold.
This could undercut other power producers as a 50 per cent discount would reduce the per unit cost of electricity to about Sh4.4 from Sh8.8 (7.53 Euro cents).
t is also comparable to the cost of hydroelectricity, currently the cheapest, at about Sh3 and geothermal at Sh7 per unit. Kenya Power will, however, have to purchase close to 1.5 billion units of electricity before it can start to enjoy the 50 per cent discount on the current tariff. According to LTWP, at the current rate of power generation by the plant and purchase trends by Kenya Power, the electricity distributor can cross the threshold in 10 months. “Whenever power purchase reaches 1.46 terawatt hours at any point during the year (about 1.46 billion kilowatt-hours), we will sell electricity to Kenya Power at half the price for the remainder of the year,” said Rizwan Fazal director at LTWP.
“In the interest of that, KPLC should try and reach this threshold as quickly as possible.” At a rate of Sh8.8 per unit, it would mean the wind plant will have earned more than Sh11.2 billion per year before it can start selling power at the discounted tariff. It is not clear whether Kenya Power would pass the benefits to power consumers considering the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with LTWP sets the tariff at Sh8.8 per KWh. There are, however, clauses on the discount once the 1.46 billion KWh threshold is achieved.


The PPA was 'take or pay'so not sure why there is a target for KPLC to reach the 1.46 billion Kwh threshold..they are bound to buy all the power LTWP generates (unless there has been a renegotiation of PPA)


Due to fluctuating wind power i.e one moment is generating 200Mw when windspeed is high and next moment is generating 50Mw when wind speed low KPLC has to maintain a 'spinning reserve i.e contract a diesel generator' to be running their diesel engines to be able to cover the shortfall in a moments notice so as not to destabilize the grid.... now this spinning reserve has a cost!


The take or pay (Deemed level of generation) is at 55% load factor, which translates to 1.445 billion units per year. Above these units, KPLC is not obligated to buy from LTWP...The current wind speed is higher than originally thought, so LTWP has shown that they are able to do around 66% load factor...thus any units above 1.445 billion threshold is not take or pay


Thanks KaunganaDoDo for the detailed analysis.So here LTWP has seen a way of making more money from the additional wind speed.


Exactly...They are shrewd guys LTWP...The wind speed is immense , they could have underestimated the speed to their advantage...if the load factor was set at 66%, the tariff would be much lower
kawi254
#102 Posted : Monday, November 05, 2018 2:22:39 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2015
Posts: 247
Location: Nairobi
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001301346/turkana-project-to-earn-firm-billions
Lake Turkana Wind Power project (LTWP) will now sell electricity to Kenya Power at a 50 per cent discounted rate, it has emerged. The arrangement, however, comes with a rider that the power distributor’s purchases from the firm’s Marsabit wind farm will have to cross a certain threshold.
This could undercut other power producers as a 50 per cent discount would reduce the per unit cost of electricity to about Sh4.4 from Sh8.8 (7.53 Euro cents).
t is also comparable to the cost of hydroelectricity, currently the cheapest, at about Sh3 and geothermal at Sh7 per unit. Kenya Power will, however, have to purchase close to 1.5 billion units of electricity before it can start to enjoy the 50 per cent discount on the current tariff. According to LTWP, at the current rate of power generation by the plant and purchase trends by Kenya Power, the electricity distributor can cross the threshold in 10 months. “Whenever power purchase reaches 1.46 terawatt hours at any point during the year (about 1.46 billion kilowatt-hours), we will sell electricity to Kenya Power at half the price for the remainder of the year,” said Rizwan Fazal director at LTWP.
“In the interest of that, KPLC should try and reach this threshold as quickly as possible.” At a rate of Sh8.8 per unit, it would mean the wind plant will have earned more than Sh11.2 billion per year before it can start selling power at the discounted tariff. It is not clear whether Kenya Power would pass the benefits to power consumers considering the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with LTWP sets the tariff at Sh8.8 per KWh. There are, however, clauses on the discount once the 1.46 billion KWh threshold is achieved.


The PPA was 'take or pay'so not sure why there is a target for KPLC to reach the 1.46 billion Kwh threshold..they are bound to buy all the power LTWP generates (unless there has been a renegotiation of PPA)


Due to fluctuating wind power i.e one moment is generating 200Mw when windspeed is high and next moment is generating 50Mw when wind speed low KPLC has to maintain a 'spinning reserve i.e contract a diesel generator' to be running their diesel engines to be able to cover the shortfall in a moments notice so as not to destabilize the grid.... now this spinning reserve has a cost!


The take or pay (Deemed level of generation) is at 55% load factor, which translates to 1.445 billion units per year. Above these units, KPLC is not obligated to buy from LTWP...The current wind speed is higher than originally thought, so LTWP has shown that they are able to do around 66% load factor...thus any units above 1.445 billion threshold is not take or pay


Thanks KaunganaDoDo for the detailed analysis.So here LTWP has seen a way of making more money from the additional wind speed.


Exactly...They are shrewd guys LTWP...The wind speed is immense , they could have underestimated the speed to their advantage...if the load factor was set at 66%, the tariff would be much lower


@KaunganaDoDo : your level of indepth knowledge is amazing. Thanks for the information.
tandich
#103 Posted : Monday, November 05, 2018 2:38:45 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 108
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001301346/turkana-project-to-earn-firm-billions
Lake Turkana Wind Power project (LTWP) will now sell electricity to Kenya Power at a 50 per cent discounted rate, it has emerged. The arrangement, however, comes with a rider that the power distributor’s purchases from the firm’s Marsabit wind farm will have to cross a certain threshold.
This could undercut other power producers as a 50 per cent discount would reduce the per unit cost of electricity to about Sh4.4 from Sh8.8 (7.53 Euro cents).
t is also comparable to the cost of hydroelectricity, currently the cheapest, at about Sh3 and geothermal at Sh7 per unit. Kenya Power will, however, have to purchase close to 1.5 billion units of electricity before it can start to enjoy the 50 per cent discount on the current tariff. According to LTWP, at the current rate of power generation by the plant and purchase trends by Kenya Power, the electricity distributor can cross the threshold in 10 months. “Whenever power purchase reaches 1.46 terawatt hours at any point during the year (about 1.46 billion kilowatt-hours), we will sell electricity to Kenya Power at half the price for the remainder of the year,” said Rizwan Fazal director at LTWP.
“In the interest of that, KPLC should try and reach this threshold as quickly as possible.” At a rate of Sh8.8 per unit, it would mean the wind plant will have earned more than Sh11.2 billion per year before it can start selling power at the discounted tariff. It is not clear whether Kenya Power would pass the benefits to power consumers considering the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with LTWP sets the tariff at Sh8.8 per KWh. There are, however, clauses on the discount once the 1.46 billion KWh threshold is achieved.


The PPA was 'take or pay'so not sure why there is a target for KPLC to reach the 1.46 billion Kwh threshold..they are bound to buy all the power LTWP generates (unless there has been a renegotiation of PPA)


Due to fluctuating wind power i.e one moment is generating 200Mw when windspeed is high and next moment is generating 50Mw when wind speed low KPLC has to maintain a 'spinning reserve i.e contract a diesel generator' to be running their diesel engines to be able to cover the shortfall in a moments notice so as not to destabilize the grid.... now this spinning reserve has a cost!


The take or pay (Deemed level of generation) is at 55% load factor, which translates to 1.445 billion units per year. Above these units, KPLC is not obligated to buy from LTWP...The current wind speed is higher than originally thought, so LTWP has shown that they are able to do around 66% load factor...thus any units above 1.445 billion threshold is not take or pay


Any idea why they have priced the additional units at half-price?
KaunganaDoDo
#104 Posted : Monday, November 05, 2018 2:44:18 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/6/2018
Posts: 86
tandich wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001301346/turkana-project-to-earn-firm-billions
Lake Turkana Wind Power project (LTWP) will now sell electricity to Kenya Power at a 50 per cent discounted rate, it has emerged. The arrangement, however, comes with a rider that the power distributor’s purchases from the firm’s Marsabit wind farm will have to cross a certain threshold.
This could undercut other power producers as a 50 per cent discount would reduce the per unit cost of electricity to about Sh4.4 from Sh8.8 (7.53 Euro cents).
t is also comparable to the cost of hydroelectricity, currently the cheapest, at about Sh3 and geothermal at Sh7 per unit. Kenya Power will, however, have to purchase close to 1.5 billion units of electricity before it can start to enjoy the 50 per cent discount on the current tariff. According to LTWP, at the current rate of power generation by the plant and purchase trends by Kenya Power, the electricity distributor can cross the threshold in 10 months. “Whenever power purchase reaches 1.46 terawatt hours at any point during the year (about 1.46 billion kilowatt-hours), we will sell electricity to Kenya Power at half the price for the remainder of the year,” said Rizwan Fazal director at LTWP.
“In the interest of that, KPLC should try and reach this threshold as quickly as possible.” At a rate of Sh8.8 per unit, it would mean the wind plant will have earned more than Sh11.2 billion per year before it can start selling power at the discounted tariff. It is not clear whether Kenya Power would pass the benefits to power consumers considering the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with LTWP sets the tariff at Sh8.8 per KWh. There are, however, clauses on the discount once the 1.46 billion KWh threshold is achieved.


The PPA was 'take or pay'so not sure why there is a target for KPLC to reach the 1.46 billion Kwh threshold..they are bound to buy all the power LTWP generates (unless there has been a renegotiation of PPA)


Due to fluctuating wind power i.e one moment is generating 200Mw when windspeed is high and next moment is generating 50Mw when wind speed low KPLC has to maintain a 'spinning reserve i.e contract a diesel generator' to be running their diesel engines to be able to cover the shortfall in a moments notice so as not to destabilize the grid.... now this spinning reserve has a cost!


The take or pay (Deemed level of generation) is at 55% load factor, which translates to 1.445 billion units per year. Above these units, KPLC is not obligated to buy from LTWP...The current wind speed is higher than originally thought, so LTWP has shown that they are able to do around 66% load factor...thus any units above 1.445 billion threshold is not take or pay


Any idea why they have priced the additional units at half-price?


Its either half price or you flash it down as waste
Superprime1
#105 Posted : Monday, November 05, 2018 3:30:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/2/2018
Posts: 103
Location: Kinungi
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?
KaunganaDoDo
#106 Posted : Monday, November 05, 2018 5:32:55 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/6/2018
Posts: 86
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must
Ebenyo
#107 Posted : Monday, November 05, 2018 6:28:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,368
Location: Kitale
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must


and then we load more at sub four.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ericsson
#108 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 11:49:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,669
Location: NAIROBI
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must

Results will be released saa ngapi
KaunganaDoDo
#109 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 12:21:10 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/6/2018
Posts: 86
Ericsson wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must

Results will be released saa ngapi


Before 15th I should think so
Ebenyo
#110 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 2:57:55 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,368
Location: Kitale
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must

Results will be released saa ngapi


Before 15th I should think so


Dividend.....0.50 per share....


Towards the goal of financial freedom
KaunganaDoDo
#111 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 3:12:30 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/6/2018
Posts: 86
Ebenyo wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must

Results will be released saa ngapi


Before 15th I should think so


Dividend.....0.50 per share....




Hahahahaha...Dividend hadi 2023...The company is both profit and cash constrained. Plus they will need to pay 6B in December for the Stan Chart 50B syndicated loan they took in 2016. Maturity has come.
Ericsson
#112 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 4:13:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,669
Location: NAIROBI
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must

Results will be released saa ngapi


Before 15th I should think so


Dividend.....0.50 per share....




Hahahahaha...Dividend hadi 2023...The company is both profit and cash constrained. Plus they will need to pay 6B in December for the Stan Chart 50B syndicated loan they took in 2016. Maturity has come.

Thanks for the information.
Continue the good work
VituVingiSana
#113 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 6:18:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,908
Location: Nairobi
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must

Results will be released saa ngapi


Before 15th I should think so


Dividend.....0.50 per share....



Hahahahaha...Dividend hadi 2023...The company is both profit and cash constrained. Plus they will need to pay 6B in December for the Stan Chart 50B syndicated loan they took in 2016. Maturity has come.
These sort of loans are often renewed and their Baba Bailout is always there to help out. All said and done, it remains tough for KPLC.

The new management should go for a Big Bath accounting move to clean up the books and give themselves a cushion to make themselves look good in the future.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ebenyo
#114 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2018 1:23:18 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,368
Location: Kitale
VituVingiSana wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must

Results will be released saa ngapi


Before 15th I should think so


Dividend.....0.50 per share....



Hahahahaha...Dividend hadi 2023...The company is both profit and cash constrained. Plus they will need to pay 6B in December for the Stan Chart 50B syndicated loan they took in 2016. Maturity has come.
These sort of loans are often renewed and their Baba Bailout is always there to help out. All said and done, it remains tough for KPLC.

The new management should go for a Big Bath accounting move to clean up the books and give themselves a cushion to make themselves look good in the future.


That will be possible if MD Jared Otieno will ignore phone calls from arap mashamba and cs keter.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ericsson
#115 Posted : Thursday, November 08, 2018 12:51:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,669
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must

Results will be released saa ngapi


Before 15th I should think so


Dividend.....0.50 per share....



Hahahahaha...Dividend hadi 2023...The company is both profit and cash constrained. Plus they will need to pay 6B in December for the Stan Chart 50B syndicated loan they took in 2016. Maturity has come.
These sort of loans are often renewed and their Baba Bailout is always there to help out. All said and done, it remains tough for KPLC.

The new management should go for a Big Bath accounting move to clean up the books and give themselves a cushion to make themselves look good in the future.


Baba Bailout is also looking for a bailout for himself
SGR loan messed him
VituVingiSana
#116 Posted : Thursday, November 08, 2018 1:25:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,908
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must

Results will be released saa ngapi


Before 15th I should think so


Dividend.....0.50 per share....



Hahahahaha...Dividend hadi 2023...The company is both profit and cash constrained. Plus they will need to pay 6B in December for the Stan Chart 50B syndicated loan they took in 2016. Maturity has come.
These sort of loans are often renewed and their Baba Bailout is always there to help out. All said and done, it remains tough for KPLC.

The new management should go for a Big Bath accounting move to clean up the books and give themselves a cushion to make themselves look good in the future.


Baba Bailout is also looking for a bailout for himself
SGR loan messed him
Baba Bailout will get the money he seeks but the Watoto (& their kids) shall pay the price in the future.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
KaunganaDoDo
#117 Posted : Sunday, November 11, 2018 6:34:17 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/6/2018
Posts: 86
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must

Results will be released saa ngapi


Before 15th I should think so


Dividend.....0.50 per share....



Hahahahaha...Dividend hadi 2023...The company is both profit and cash constrained. Plus they will need to pay 6B in December for the Stan Chart 50B syndicated loan they took in 2016. Maturity has come.
These sort of loans are often renewed and their Baba Bailout is always there to help out. All said and done, it remains tough for KPLC.

The new management should go for a Big Bath accounting move to clean up the books and give themselves a cushion to make themselves look good in the future.


Baba Bailout is also looking for a bailout for himself
SGR loan messed him
Baba Bailout will get the money he seeks but the Watoto (& their kids) shall pay the price in the future.



"The harvest is finished, and the summer is gone," the people cry, "yet we are not saved!"

This should be the week, hopefully to be saved. Time is over.
VituVingiSana
#118 Posted : Sunday, November 11, 2018 8:29:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,908
Location: Nairobi
I support KPLC shareholders every second of every day! [My old phone is constantly being charged]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#119 Posted : Sunday, November 11, 2018 9:07:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,640
Location: nairobi
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
KaunganaDoDo wrote:
Superprime1 wrote:
@KaunganaDoDo and @kawi254, do you see this counter testing 3bob?


It will, for sure as the sun will shine tomorrow, it will. The full year will be tooo baaaaaad. Sub four is a must

Results will be released saa ngapi


Before 15th I should think so


Dividend.....0.50 per share....



Hahahahaha...Dividend hadi 2023...The company is both profit and cash constrained. Plus they will need to pay 6B in December for the Stan Chart 50B syndicated loan they took in 2016. Maturity has come.
These sort of loans are often renewed and their Baba Bailout is always there to help out. All said and done, it remains tough for KPLC.

The new management should go for a Big Bath accounting move to clean up the books and give themselves a cushion to make themselves look good in the future.


Baba Bailout is also looking for a bailout for himself
SGR loan messed him
Baba Bailout will get the money he seeks but the Watoto (& their kids) shall pay the price in the future.



"The harvest is finished, and the summer is gone," the people cry, "yet we are not saved!"

This should be the week, hopefully to be saved. Time is over.

A terrible irony of increasing number of population connection to the national grid and decreasing profitability.. An oxymoron. Daylight robbery
COOP 5,500; KCB 2,500; KQ 95,000
Ericsson
#120 Posted : Sunday, November 11, 2018 10:10:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,669
Location: NAIROBI
Let the results be released,no need to postpone further the eventuality
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