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159 Pages«<152153154155156>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Ericsson
#3061 Posted : Thursday, February 07, 2019 11:11:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,231
Location: NAIROBI
https://kenyanwallstreet...ours-to-boost-activity/

The Dar es Salaam Stock exchange has extended its trading time by an hour. It usually operated from 10am to 3pm but will now run from 10am to 4pm starting 11 February. The move was necessitated by the need for more time by bond dealers. Additionally, the extension will favor foreign investors who operate on a different time zone.

Trading hours extended from 5hrs to 6hrs
Kenya's NSE trading hours is 5.5hrs
Yliett
#3062 Posted : Sunday, February 10, 2019 1:56:23 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/23/2018
Posts: 38
Location: germany
What happened in NSSF sounds like big miss-management of data migration. Control systems were not established prior to migration. This should not ever happen, especially with pension money. If they messed up with data migration, how can they be sure in their ability to make adequate corrections?
rwitre
#3063 Posted : Monday, February 11, 2019 3:11:46 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 368
Location: Nairobi
VyaBureSiachi wrote:
rwitre wrote:
mufasa wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
rwitre wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
bartum wrote:
Is the market looking up, chartists what do you say


Taking positions in anticipation of full year results and dividends in the financial sector and for companies whose FY ended 31 December



SCOM, EQTY, KCB, ICDC taking off.

BRIT, JUB, KEGN on queue

NMG yet to be cleared

Come rally, come!

Applause Applause

Market has been consolidating for the last three months or so. This is after erasing the whole 2017 rally and puncturing the Feb 2017 low of 2789. Generally, I don't expect 2019 to be good for EM/FMs but there are always some exceptions.


The resistance at these 2700 levels has held for a while now. To the point we can start feeling a new social mood kicking in.

Post Dusit attack, Kenyans are beginning to feel more resilient and foreigners are gaining more confidence with our economy. We've overtaken Ethiopia, GDP wise again. The likelihood of them catching up again is not soon.

Handshake is bearing fruit.

Grand corruption cases have gone down... We're now just dealing with thieves of yester-years.

So, yes. A small upward spike is expected.


NMG is that one sheep that keeps going back to the pen when the rest of its pals are being herded out to graze in the morning.

How does it fall to an all-time low of 60 just when the bull is picking up. d'oh! d'oh!

Anyway...we welcome the discount.

I think NMG is overvalued in my book. Steady declining earnings over the years, depletion of their reserves, PB of 1.43, PE of 8.7, savage cut in dividend.
I think the only plays here are the dividend rally then you jump out or strap up for the long haul and wait for a buyout(risking massive capital erosion)



NMG closes at 71. It's taken a while longer than the rest of its peers in the NSE 20, but it's slowly coming around to lift-off. smile
mnandii
#3064 Posted : Wednesday, March 06, 2019 11:11:23 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,843


Safaricom appears to be developing an expanded flat ABC where wave A completed at about Kes 21.77. Now I expect the developing wave B to rise to about Kes 36.49 - 38.70. After completion of wave B I will expect Safcom to fall in wave C to significantly below Kes 21.77 (the wave A low).

The above scenario is negated if Safcom continues down to below Kes 21.77 immediately.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3065 Posted : Friday, April 12, 2019 6:34:18 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,843
I did warn about bank and insurance companies collapsing when the bear in the NSE 20 Share Index took a strong hold. Then I was being told how Kenyan banks have strong capital ratios, ati sijui we have a smart CBK governor? Now I hear there is a bank and an insurance company that are facing difficult times Sad ?
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
sparkly
#3066 Posted : Friday, April 12, 2019 6:50:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 7,213
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mnandii wrote:
I did warn about bank and insurance companies collapsing when the bear in the NSE 20 Share Index took a strong hold. Then I was being told how Kenyan banks have strong capital ratios, ati sijui we have a smart CBK governor? Now I hear there is a bank and an insurance company that are facing difficult times Sad ?


@Mnabii tell us what will happen to KQ, Mumias, HAFR, ARM, Deacons, NIC-CBA
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#3067 Posted : Friday, April 12, 2019 6:57:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,289
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
I did warn about bank and insurance companies collapsing when the bear in the NSE 20 Share Index took a strong hold. Then I was being told how Kenyan banks have strong capital ratios, ati sijui we have a smart CBK governor? Now I hear there is a bank and an insurance company that are facing difficult times Sad ?

I doubt you were told all banks were the same. Even back then, NBK had poor fundamentals. Overall the KE banking sector looks OK. There will always be a few stragglers.
Spire, NBK, etc were weak back in 2016 and remain so today.

Even among insurance firms, you have the likes of Jubilee, which may face challenges in some years, and some shady/weak ones that remain on the edge forever.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#3068 Posted : Friday, April 12, 2019 7:49:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,181
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
mnandii wrote:
I did warn about bank and insurance companies collapsing when the bear in the NSE 20 Share Index took a strong hold. Then I was being told how Kenyan banks have strong capital ratios, ati sijui we have a smart CBK governor? Now I hear there is a bank and an insurance company that are facing difficult times Sad ?


@Mnabii tell us what will happen to KQ, Mumias, HAFR, ARM, Deacons, NIC-CBA

KQ is unchartable since August 2017 to date.. Let no one persuade you otherwise
COOP 5,500; KCB 7,500; KNRE 100,000; KQ 221,100
Aguytrying
#3069 Posted : Monday, April 15, 2019 9:33:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,023
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
I did warn about bank and insurance companies collapsing when the bear in the NSE 20 Share Index took a strong hold. Then I was being told how Kenyan banks have strong capital ratios, ati sijui we have a smart CBK governor? Now I hear there is a bank and an insurance company that are facing difficult times Sad ?

I doubt you were told all banks were the same. Even back then, NBK had poor fundamentals. Overall the KE banking sector looks OK. There will always be a few stragglers.
Spire, NBK, etc were weak back in 2016 and remain so today.

Even among insurance firms, you have the likes of Jubilee, which may face challenges in some years, and some shady/weak ones that remain on the edge forever.


Chief VVS. Where have you cast your net following KK payout? Or where are you looking at. I have to admit the amount of quality stocks has diminished compared to a few years ago, but I always believe there are some gems to be found.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
xtina
#3070 Posted : Monday, April 15, 2019 10:00:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 259
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
I did warn about bank and insurance companies collapsing when the bear in the NSE 20 Share Index took a strong hold. Then I was being told how Kenyan banks have strong capital ratios, ati sijui we have a smart CBK governor? Now I hear there is a bank and an insurance company that are facing difficult times Sad ?

I doubt you were told all banks were the same. Even back then, NBK had poor fundamentals. Overall the KE banking sector looks OK. There will always be a few stragglers.
Spire, NBK, etc were weak back in 2016 and remain so today.

Even among insurance firms, you have the likes of Jubilee, which may face challenges in some years, and some shady/weak ones that remain on the edge forever.


Chief VVS. Where have you cast your net following KK payout? Or where are you looking at. I have to admit the amount of quality stocks has diminished compared to a few years ago, but I always believe there are some gems to be found.



VituVingiSana #1685 Posted : Sunday, March 17, 2019 2:29:31 PM
Quote
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,387
Location: Nairobi
As we head into 2Q 2019, what next?

I am out of KK. Cash ni ndani but it needs to be deployed starting Monday.

I am willing to hold/wait for 5 years for a pay-off.

Banks look good. Should I add more to what I have?
Equity
I&M [Core]
NIC
Stanbic

Manufacturing is suffering but is it a chance to get in?
BOC? [I don't have any]
FTG [small holding]
ARM [dead and suspended]
Unga [Core. Will Seaboard be back? When? Higher price?]
Cables? [Zero]

Insurance?
Britam [none]
KenRe [Core. Politics?]

Services/Commerce
TPS? [I have some. Nairobi Serena will look and feel very different once it is complete]
C&G [I have some]
Longhorn [Taken off lately. Education is huge business]
Centum
Safaricom? [Expensive but what a performer]

Agrics
Williamson/Kapchorua [Some but the land issue is worrying]
Kakuzi [None but the land issue is worrying]

What I have no interest in owning given the drama, politics, prospects or lack of faith in their financials:
KQ [Negative NAV? Little prospect for a profit for 5 years without JKIA]
NBV
Kurwitu [No idea what it does]
Orchards
Sameer
Eveready
HAFR [Real estate is hurting]
Eagaads [Politics + Drama]
Mumias [Run into the ground]
Olympia [Run by a thief]
Uchumi [Dying]
Transcentury [Dying?]

*There are other firms that might be interesting but given the politics and Kenya's debt situation, I want to be cautious.
Firms need to handle their debt carefully. Don't expand too fast using debt.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Back to top Report Abusive | Report SPAM | Edit by user: Sunday, March 17, 2019 2:51 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#3071 Posted : Monday, April 15, 2019 6:19:32 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,289
Location: Nairobi
@xtina - Thanks for helping me out. Appreciated.
@AGuy - I have not narrowed down on my choices BUT they are covered in the list above.

LONG POST ALERT

I am going to keep some "dry gunpowder" as well.
By the time the KK cash came in, some bargains disappeared eg banks.

I have decided to stick with a max of 5 "Tier 1" for 70-80% of my portfolio. LONG-TERM.
Unga, KenyaRe and I&M remain Core. Unga and KenyaRe remain at lows so I added some.
KenyaRe at 11 [Please note I have my reservations about GoK-controlled firms but 11 was very attractive]
Unga at 33 [2019 is going to be very TOUGH but there's a chance Seaboard will return]
I&M is relatively conservative. Attractive PER and P/B even at 113.

CENTUM may make its way to Tier 1 but I am only buying on dips. No rush.
Property sales are Sad
Sidian is Sad
TRLC (Two Rivers Mall) seems rather empty during the weekdays
Amu is Sad
Akira has no successes yet.
GM may see additional sales with the push for local assembly.
YET, I see there may be a decent future if Centum can ride it out over the next few years.

I am monitoring firms with high LTVs.
Centum has debt but it also has some good investments e.g. Nairobi Bottlers and Almasi.
The Management has recognized the debt situation and said they plan to reduce debt (how?) at the parent level and push some debt down onto the project level. Can they sell some mature businesses?

Unga has taken on debt for the new Eldoret wheat plant and Soya Meal Plant but I believe it is manageable given the cashflows.

Smaller holdings (less than 20%) include:
TPSEA which has also taken on substantial debt to expand Nairobi Serena. What I have seen so far makes me happy but I want to see the new rooms. It was beginning to look dated but the new/expanded/updated facilities should attract more MICE business.
I think Serena needs to expand into Westlands/Diani/Kisumu/Runda even if they just manage (not buy) a property. Also it needs a secondary (3-star) brand that can benefit from Serena's expertise.

Equity - The DRC business is doing well but I want to add more at sub-40.

NIC and Stanbic - They will be OK in 2019. NIC+CBA. Stanbic finally seems to have a handle on their NPLs.

Kapchorua, Williamson - Affected by land issues as we get to 2022. Low tea prices. Labor problems. I am keeping what I have BUT not buying more at the moment.

C&G - Imports are problematic with the slow clearing processes and additional costs. Lack of motorcycle plates. Equipment sales are slow with slow payments from GoK. A large vacant property. Provision for bad debts. 1H 2019 doesn't seem promising. One needs a strong stomach. Not selling yet.

Longhorn - A Centum subsidiary. I started buying at 4.50 but the price has jumped quite a bit. The 1H was encouraging. It is pricey on a PER and P/B basis. The "P/BV" is not an appropriate measure given it is about IP. Eventually, I think Centum will sell it and I hope to ride the wave. It is NOT cheap at 6.50 so I am not buying at the moment. The reliance on payments from GoK is worrying. With massive tenderpreneurship in the industry, how can Longhorn keep itself relevant with those who order the books?

Flame Tree - I wanted to add to my position at the lows (2.30-ish) but the price jumped. I will keep what I have and add as needed. I see a very tough 2019. Construction is subdued. Bad debtors abound. Mozambique has lots of issues.

I am a VALUE and LONG-TERM investor so I try to buy when the prices are low but the fundamentals of the firm remain strong. A single bad period for a firm isn't a deterrent but an opportunity.

What worries me is the ECONOMY at large and the FISCAL IMPROPRIETIES since those affect even well-run businesses. The economy has slowed as GoK took on loans for White Elephants. The slow-down in payments by the National Government and thuggery by various counties is hurting the country and legit firms.

Reading the various Annual Reports shows:
Unga has not been paid for the maize subsidy. Huge amounts.
C&G is suffering from lack of motorcycle registration plates since prisons doesn't have sheet metal and paint! Also the interest rate cap has reduced sales of equipment given banks aren't lending as much. Non-payment by GoK to local contractors hurts heavy equipment sales.
NPLs are on the rise for I&M, Stanbic and NIC. It will take time to work through them.
Centum is seeing slow land sales due to various factors including issues at the Lands Office, interest rate cap, economic malaise, etc
Flame Tree has suffered defaults and slowing private sector construction.
KenyaRe suffers from low private sector business activity.

All the above coupled with high T-Bond rates. Why invest in expanding the business when T-Bonds pay much better?
KenyaRe has 14bn in GoK paper!

I am also open to suggestion with well-researched analysis. I am not interested in weak firms hinged on bailouts. I was burnt on ARM after CDC bailed out on it.
That excludes EAPCC, KQ, NBK, HF, etc even though some may do well after the bailouts BUT I want to sleep well.
I also avoid GoK-controlled firms and Merali firms. Wacha nilale! [Yes, I have KenyaRe but I like Mwarania]

It will be a tough 2019 BUT "Get Greedy when others are Fearful"
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#3072 Posted : Tuesday, April 16, 2019 9:22:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,023
VituVingiSana wrote:
@xtina - Thanks for helping me out. Appreciated.
@AGuy - I have not narrowed down on my choices BUT they are covered in the list above.

LONG POST ALERT

I am going to keep some "dry gunpowder" as well.
By the time the KK cash came in, some bargains disappeared eg banks.

I have decided to stick with a max of 5 "Tier 1" for 70-80% of my portfolio. LONG-TERM.
Unga, KenyaRe and I&M remain Core. Unga and KenyaRe remain at lows so I added some.
KenyaRe at 11 [Please note I have my reservations about GoK-controlled firms but 11 was very attractive]
Unga at 33 [2019 is going to be very TOUGH but there's a chance Seaboard will return]
I&M is relatively conservative. Attractive PER and P/B even at 113.

CENTUM may make its way to Tier 1 but I am only buying on dips. No rush.
Property sales are Sad
Sidian is Sad
TRLC (Two Rivers Mall) seems rather empty during the weekdays
Amu is Sad
Akira has no successes yet.
GM may see additional sales with the push for local assembly.
YET, I see there may be a decent future if Centum can ride it out over the next few years.

I am monitoring firms with high LTVs.
Centum has debt but it also has some good investments e.g. Nairobi Bottlers and Almasi.
The Management has recognized the debt situation and said they plan to reduce debt (how?) at the parent level and push some debt down onto the project level. Can they sell some mature businesses?

Unga has taken on debt for the new Eldoret wheat plant and Soya Meal Plant but I believe it is manageable given the cashflows.

Smaller holdings (less than 20%) include:
TPSEA which has also taken on substantial debt to expand Nairobi Serena. What I have seen so far makes me happy but I want to see the new rooms. It was beginning to look dated but the new/expanded/updated facilities should attract more MICE business.
I think Serena needs to expand into Westlands/Diani/Kisumu/Runda even if they just manage (not buy) a property. Also it needs a secondary (3-star) brand that can benefit from Serena's expertise.

Equity - The DRC business is doing well but I want to add more at sub-40.

NIC and Stanbic - They will be OK in 2019. NIC+CBA. Stanbic finally seems to have a handle on their NPLs.

Kapchorua, Williamson - Affected by land issues as we get to 2022. Low tea prices. Labor problems. I am keeping what I have BUT not buying more at the moment.

C&G - Imports are problematic with the slow clearing processes and additional costs. Lack of motorcycle plates. Equipment sales are slow with slow payments from GoK. A large vacant property. Provision for bad debts. 1H 2019 doesn't seem promising. One needs a strong stomach. Not selling yet.

Longhorn - A Centum subsidiary. I started buying at 4.50 but the price has jumped quite a bit. The 1H was encouraging. It is pricey on a PER and P/B basis. The "P/BV" is not an appropriate measure given it is about IP. Eventually, I think Centum will sell it and I hope to ride the wave. It is NOT cheap at 6.50 so I am not buying at the moment. The reliance on payments from GoK is worrying. With massive tenderpreneurship in the industry, how can Longhorn keep itself relevant with those who order the books?

Flame Tree - I wanted to add to my position at the lows (2.30-ish) but the price jumped. I will keep what I have and add as needed. I see a very tough 2019. Construction is subdued. Bad debtors abound. Mozambique has lots of issues.

I am a VALUE and LONG-TERM investor so I try to buy when the prices are low but the fundamentals of the firm remain strong. A single bad period for a firm isn't a deterrent but an opportunity.

What worries me is the ECONOMY at large and the FISCAL IMPROPRIETIES since those affect even well-run businesses. The economy has slowed as GoK took on loans for White Elephants. The slow-down in payments by the National Government and thuggery by various counties is hurting the country and legit firms.

Reading the various Annual Reports shows:
Unga has not been paid for the maize subsidy. Huge amounts.
C&G is suffering from lack of motorcycle registration plates since prisons doesn't have sheet metal and paint! Also the interest rate cap has reduced sales of equipment given banks aren't lending as much. Non-payment by GoK to local contractors hurts heavy equipment sales.
NPLs are on the rise for I&M, Stanbic and NIC. It will take time to work through them.
Centum is seeing slow land sales due to various factors including issues at the Lands Office, interest rate cap, economic malaise, etc
Flame Tree has suffered defaults and slowing private sector construction.
KenyaRe suffers from low private sector business activity.

All the above coupled with high T-Bond rates. Why invest in expanding the business when T-Bonds pay much better?
KenyaRe has 14bn in GoK paper!

I am also open to suggestion with well-researched analysis. I am not interested in weak firms hinged on bailouts. I was burnt on ARM after CDC bailed out on it.
That excludes EAPCC, KQ, NBK, HF, etc even though some may do well after the bailouts BUT I want to sleep well.
I also avoid GoK-controlled firms and Merali firms. Wacha nilale! [Yes, I have KenyaRe but I like Mwarania]

It will be a tough 2019 BUT "Get Greedy when others are Fearful"


Thanks @xtina- hadn't seen that monumental post

@chief VVS. I like most of your picks except Kenre and centum.

For Ken re- the GOk thing really puts me off, no price is too low for GOk firms as has been proven time and time again. The only one's spared of the scourge being KCB and safcom. In these however Gok doesn't own majority of the the shares. Your call though.

On centum, creative accounting,ideas, exuberant employee compensation were the red flag for me. And on the background of the lack of dividend despite the good performance. (I know Berkshire also doesn't,but different kettle of fish) Maybe I'm just being paranoid but that's what my gut tells me.

Your other picks are class. Almost in the mould of KK that we loved so much, but Rubis loved her more.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Ericsson
#3073 Posted : Tuesday, April 16, 2019 9:24:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,231
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
@xtina - Thanks for helping me out. Appreciated.
@AGuy - I have not narrowed down on my choices BUT they are covered in the list above.

LONG POST ALERT

I am going to keep some "dry gunpowder" as well.
By the time the KK cash came in, some bargains disappeared eg banks.

I have decided to stick with a max of 5 "Tier 1" for 70-80% of my portfolio. LONG-TERM.
Unga, KenyaRe and I&M remain Core. Unga and KenyaRe remain at lows so I added some.
KenyaRe at 11 [Please note I have my reservations about GoK-controlled firms but 11 was very attractive]
Unga at 33 [2019 is going to be very TOUGH but there's a chance Seaboard will return]
I&M is relatively conservative. Attractive PER and P/B even at 113.

CENTUM may make its way to Tier 1 but I am only buying on dips. No rush.
Property sales are Sad
Sidian is Sad
TRLC (Two Rivers Mall) seems rather empty during the weekdays
Amu is Sad
Akira has no successes yet.
GM may see additional sales with the push for local assembly.
YET, I see there may be a decent future if Centum can ride it out over the next few years.

I am monitoring firms with high LTVs.
Centum has debt but it also has some good investments e.g. Nairobi Bottlers and Almasi.
The Management has recognized the debt situation and said they plan to reduce debt (how?) at the parent level and push some debt down onto the project level. Can they sell some mature businesses?

Unga has taken on debt for the new Eldoret wheat plant and Soya Meal Plant but I believe it is manageable given the cashflows.

Smaller holdings (less than 20%) include:
TPSEA which has also taken on substantial debt to expand Nairobi Serena. What I have seen so far makes me happy but I want to see the new rooms. It was beginning to look dated but the new/expanded/updated facilities should attract more MICE business.
I think Serena needs to expand into Westlands/Diani/Kisumu/Runda even if they just manage (not buy) a property. Also it needs a secondary (3-star) brand that can benefit from Serena's expertise.

Equity - The DRC business is doing well but I want to add more at sub-40.

NIC and Stanbic - They will be OK in 2019. NIC+CBA. Stanbic finally seems to have a handle on their NPLs.

Kapchorua, Williamson - Affected by land issues as we get to 2022. Low tea prices. Labor problems. I am keeping what I have BUT not buying more at the moment.

C&G - Imports are problematic with the slow clearing processes and additional costs. Lack of motorcycle plates. Equipment sales are slow with slow payments from GoK. A large vacant property. Provision for bad debts. 1H 2019 doesn't seem promising. One needs a strong stomach. Not selling yet.

Longhorn - A Centum subsidiary. I started buying at 4.50 but the price has jumped quite a bit. The 1H was encouraging. It is pricey on a PER and P/B basis. The "P/BV" is not an appropriate measure given it is about IP. Eventually, I think Centum will sell it and I hope to ride the wave. It is NOT cheap at 6.50 so I am not buying at the moment. The reliance on payments from GoK is worrying. With massive tenderpreneurship in the industry, how can Longhorn keep itself relevant with those who order the books?

Flame Tree - I wanted to add to my position at the lows (2.30-ish) but the price jumped. I will keep what I have and add as needed. I see a very tough 2019. Construction is subdued. Bad debtors abound. Mozambique has lots of issues.

I am a VALUE and LONG-TERM investor so I try to buy when the prices are low but the fundamentals of the firm remain strong. A single bad period for a firm isn't a deterrent but an opportunity.

What worries me is the ECONOMY at large and the FISCAL IMPROPRIETIES since those affect even well-run businesses. The economy has slowed as GoK took on loans for White Elephants. The slow-down in payments by the National Government and thuggery by various counties is hurting the country and legit firms.

Reading the various Annual Reports shows:
Unga has not been paid for the maize subsidy. Huge amounts.
C&G is suffering from lack of motorcycle registration plates since prisons doesn't have sheet metal and paint! Also the interest rate cap has reduced sales of equipment given banks aren't lending as much. Non-payment by GoK to local contractors hurts heavy equipment sales.
NPLs are on the rise for I&M, Stanbic and NIC. It will take time to work through them.
Centum is seeing slow land sales due to various factors including issues at the Lands Office, interest rate cap, economic malaise, etc
Flame Tree has suffered defaults and slowing private sector construction.
KenyaRe suffers from low private sector business activity.

All the above coupled with high T-Bond rates. Why invest in expanding the business when T-Bonds pay much better?
KenyaRe has 14bn in GoK paper!

I am also open to suggestion with well-researched analysis. I am not interested in weak firms hinged on bailouts. I was burnt on ARM after CDC bailed out on it.
That excludes EAPCC, KQ, NBK, HF, etc even though some may do well after the bailouts BUT I want to sleep well.
I also avoid GoK-controlled firms and Merali firms. Wacha nilale! [Yes, I have KenyaRe but I like Mwarania]

It will be a tough 2019 BUT "Get Greedy when others are Fearful"


Well thought and written analysis from mzee
Aguytrying
#3074 Posted : Tuesday, April 16, 2019 5:46:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,023
VituVingiSana wrote:
@xtina - Thanks for helping me out. Appreciated.
@AGuy - I have not narrowed down on my choices BUT they are covered in the list above.

LONG POST ALERT

I am going to keep some "dry gunpowder" as well.
By the time the KK cash came in, some bargains disappeared eg banks.

I have decided to stick with a max of 5 "Tier 1" for 70-80% of my portfolio. LONG-TERM.
Unga, KenyaRe and I&M remain Core. Unga and KenyaRe remain at lows so I added some.
KenyaRe at 11 [Please note I have my reservations about GoK-controlled firms but 11 was very attractive]
Unga at 33 [2019 is going to be very TOUGH but there's a chance Seaboard will return]
I&M is relatively conservative. Attractive PER and P/B even at 113.

CENTUM may make its way to Tier 1 but I am only buying on dips. No rush.
Property sales are Sad
Sidian is Sad
TRLC (Two Rivers Mall) seems rather empty during the weekdays
Amu is Sad
Akira has no successes yet.
GM may see additional sales with the push for local assembly.
YET, I see there may be a decent future if Centum can ride it out over the next few years.

I am monitoring firms with high LTVs.
Centum has debt but it also has some good investments e.g. Nairobi Bottlers and Almasi.
The Management has recognized the debt situation and said they plan to reduce debt (how?) at the parent level and push some debt down onto the project level. Can they sell some mature businesses?

Unga has taken on debt for the new Eldoret wheat plant and Soya Meal Plant but I believe it is manageable given the cashflows.

Smaller holdings (less than 20%) include:
TPSEA which has also taken on substantial debt to expand Nairobi Serena. What I have seen so far makes me happy but I want to see the new rooms. It was beginning to look dated but the new/expanded/updated facilities should attract more MICE business.
I think Serena needs to expand into Westlands/Diani/Kisumu/Runda even if they just manage (not buy) a property. Also it needs a secondary (3-star) brand that can benefit from Serena's expertise.

Equity - The DRC business is doing well but I want to add more at sub-40.

NIC and Stanbic - They will be OK in 2019. NIC+CBA. Stanbic finally seems to have a handle on their NPLs.

Kapchorua, Williamson - Affected by land issues as we get to 2022. Low tea prices. Labor problems. I am keeping what I have BUT not buying more at the moment.

C&G - Imports are problematic with the slow clearing processes and additional costs. Lack of motorcycle plates. Equipment sales are slow with slow payments from GoK. A large vacant property. Provision for bad debts. 1H 2019 doesn't seem promising. One needs a strong stomach. Not selling yet.

Longhorn - A Centum subsidiary. I started buying at 4.50 but the price has jumped quite a bit. The 1H was encouraging. It is pricey on a PER and P/B basis. The "P/BV" is not an appropriate measure given it is about IP. Eventually, I think Centum will sell it and I hope to ride the wave. It is NOT cheap at 6.50 so I am not buying at the moment. The reliance on payments from GoK is worrying. With massive tenderpreneurship in the industry, how can Longhorn keep itself relevant with those who order the books?

Flame Tree - I wanted to add to my position at the lows (2.30-ish) but the price jumped. I will keep what I have and add as needed. I see a very tough 2019. Construction is subdued. Bad debtors abound. Mozambique has lots of issues.

I am a VALUE and LONG-TERM investor so I try to buy when the prices are low but the fundamentals of the firm remain strong. A single bad period for a firm isn't a deterrent but an opportunity.

What worries me is the ECONOMY at large and the FISCAL IMPROPRIETIES since those affect even well-run businesses. The economy has slowed as GoK took on loans for White Elephants. The slow-down in payments by the National Government and thuggery by various counties is hurting the country and legit firms.

Reading the various Annual Reports shows:
Unga has not been paid for the maize subsidy. Huge amounts.
C&G is suffering from lack of motorcycle registration plates since prisons doesn't have sheet metal and paint! Also the interest rate cap has reduced sales of equipment given banks aren't lending as much. Non-payment by GoK to local contractors hurts heavy equipment sales.
NPLs are on the rise for I&M, Stanbic and NIC. It will take time to work through them.
Centum is seeing slow land sales due to various factors including issues at the Lands Office, interest rate cap, economic malaise, etc
Flame Tree has suffered defaults and slowing private sector construction.
KenyaRe suffers from low private sector business activity.

All the above coupled with high T-Bond rates. Why invest in expanding the business when T-Bonds pay much better?
KenyaRe has 14bn in GoK paper!

I am also open to suggestion with well-researched analysis. I am not interested in weak firms hinged on bailouts. I was burnt on ARM after CDC bailed out on it.
That excludes EAPCC, KQ, NBK, HF, etc even though some may do well after the bailouts BUT I want to sleep well.
I also avoid GoK-controlled firms and Merali firms. Wacha nilale! [Yes, I have KenyaRe but I like Mwarania]

It will be a tough 2019 BUT "Get Greedy when others are Fearful"


What of BAT? growth despite the difficult environment, good dividend payout. Don't know about management but they seem to be to have a good track record.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Angelica _ann
#3075 Posted : Tuesday, April 16, 2019 6:20:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 10,794
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@xtina - Thanks for helping me out. Appreciated.
@AGuy - I have not narrowed down on my choices BUT they are covered in the list above.

LONG POST ALERT

I am going to keep some "dry gunpowder" as well.
By the time the KK cash came in, some bargains disappeared eg banks.

I have decided to stick with a max of 5 "Tier 1" for 70-80% of my portfolio. LONG-TERM.
Unga, KenyaRe and I&M remain Core. Unga and KenyaRe remain at lows so I added some.
KenyaRe at 11 [Please note I have my reservations about GoK-controlled firms but 11 was very attractive]
Unga at 33 [2019 is going to be very TOUGH but there's a chance Seaboard will return]
I&M is relatively conservative. Attractive PER and P/B even at 113.

CENTUM may make its way to Tier 1 but I am only buying on dips. No rush.
Property sales are Sad
Sidian is Sad
TRLC (Two Rivers Mall) seems rather empty during the weekdays
Amu is Sad
Akira has no successes yet.
GM may see additional sales with the push for local assembly.
YET, I see there may be a decent future if Centum can ride it out over the next few years.

I am monitoring firms with high LTVs.
Centum has debt but it also has some good investments e.g. Nairobi Bottlers and Almasi.
The Management has recognized the debt situation and said they plan to reduce debt (how?) at the parent level and push some debt down onto the project level. Can they sell some mature businesses?

Unga has taken on debt for the new Eldoret wheat plant and Soya Meal Plant but I believe it is manageable given the cashflows.

Smaller holdings (less than 20%) include:
TPSEA which has also taken on substantial debt to expand Nairobi Serena. What I have seen so far makes me happy but I want to see the new rooms. It was beginning to look dated but the new/expanded/updated facilities should attract more MICE business.
I think Serena needs to expand into Westlands/Diani/Kisumu/Runda even if they just manage (not buy) a property. Also it needs a secondary (3-star) brand that can benefit from Serena's expertise.

Equity - The DRC business is doing well but I want to add more at sub-40.

NIC and Stanbic - They will be OK in 2019. NIC+CBA. Stanbic finally seems to have a handle on their NPLs.

Kapchorua, Williamson - Affected by land issues as we get to 2022. Low tea prices. Labor problems. I am keeping what I have BUT not buying more at the moment.

C&G - Imports are problematic with the slow clearing processes and additional costs. Lack of motorcycle plates. Equipment sales are slow with slow payments from GoK. A large vacant property. Provision for bad debts. 1H 2019 doesn't seem promising. One needs a strong stomach. Not selling yet.

Longhorn - A Centum subsidiary. I started buying at 4.50 but the price has jumped quite a bit. The 1H was encouraging. It is pricey on a PER and P/B basis. The "P/BV" is not an appropriate measure given it is about IP. Eventually, I think Centum will sell it and I hope to ride the wave. It is NOT cheap at 6.50 so I am not buying at the moment. The reliance on payments from GoK is worrying. With massive tenderpreneurship in the industry, how can Longhorn keep itself relevant with those who order the books?

Flame Tree - I wanted to add to my position at the lows (2.30-ish) but the price jumped. I will keep what I have and add as needed. I see a very tough 2019. Construction is subdued. Bad debtors abound. Mozambique has lots of issues.

I am a VALUE and LONG-TERM investor so I try to buy when the prices are low but the fundamentals of the firm remain strong. A single bad period for a firm isn't a deterrent but an opportunity.

What worries me is the ECONOMY at large and the FISCAL IMPROPRIETIES since those affect even well-run businesses. The economy has slowed as GoK took on loans for White Elephants. The slow-down in payments by the National Government and thuggery by various counties is hurting the country and legit firms.

Reading the various Annual Reports shows:
Unga has not been paid for the maize subsidy. Huge amounts.
C&G is suffering from lack of motorcycle registration plates since prisons doesn't have sheet metal and paint! Also the interest rate cap has reduced sales of equipment given banks aren't lending as much. Non-payment by GoK to local contractors hurts heavy equipment sales.
NPLs are on the rise for I&M, Stanbic and NIC. It will take time to work through them.
Centum is seeing slow land sales due to various factors including issues at the Lands Office, interest rate cap, economic malaise, etc
Flame Tree has suffered defaults and slowing private sector construction.
KenyaRe suffers from low private sector business activity.

All the above coupled with high T-Bond rates. Why invest in expanding the business when T-Bonds pay much better?
KenyaRe has 14bn in GoK paper!

I am also open to suggestion with well-researched analysis. I am not interested in weak firms hinged on bailouts. I was burnt on ARM after CDC bailed out on it.
That excludes EAPCC, KQ, NBK, HF, etc even though some may do well after the bailouts BUT I want to sleep well.
I also avoid GoK-controlled firms and Merali firms. Wacha nilale! [Yes, I have KenyaRe but I like Mwarania]

It will be a tough 2019 BUT "Get Greedy when others are Fearful"


What of BAT? growth despite the difficult environment, good dividend payout. Don't know about management but they seem to be to have a good track record.


Welcome to BAT, been buying small lots (expensive stock) over the last 1 year (so far a defensive stock and long term capital preservation & appreciation - no crazy capital gains) at prices below 550 bob. At a point i was lucky and got a chunk at 509 bob.

Management of BAT is topnotch and watched from UK, no worries. They are never aggressive in their approach to business, but somehow hacks it year in year out though with small profit dips once in awhile.

Nowadays i don't like crazy speculative stocks, you need to sleep sound and well.

Otherwise you can wait to scoop Safaricom at anything below 25bob. This fuliza thing, plus data expansions/penetration will bring in some good revenue.

Ni hayo tu nduguzanguni.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Aguytrying
#3076 Posted : Tuesday, April 16, 2019 8:05:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,023
Angelica _ann wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@xtina - Thanks for helping me out. Appreciated.
@AGuy - I have not narrowed down on my choices BUT they are covered in the list above.

LONG POST ALERT

I am going to keep some "dry gunpowder" as well.
By the time the KK cash came in, some bargains disappeared eg banks.

I have decided to stick with a max of 5 "Tier 1" for 70-80% of my portfolio. LONG-TERM.
Unga, KenyaRe and I&M remain Core. Unga and KenyaRe remain at lows so I added some.
KenyaRe at 11 [Please note I have my reservations about GoK-controlled firms but 11 was very attractive]
Unga at 33 [2019 is going to be very TOUGH but there's a chance Seaboard will return]
I&M is relatively conservative. Attractive PER and P/B even at 113.

CENTUM may make its way to Tier 1 but I am only buying on dips. No rush.
Property sales are Sad
Sidian is Sad
TRLC (Two Rivers Mall) seems rather empty during the weekdays
Amu is Sad
Akira has no successes yet.
GM may see additional sales with the push for local assembly.
YET, I see there may be a decent future if Centum can ride it out over the next few years.

I am monitoring firms with high LTVs.
Centum has debt but it also has some good investments e.g. Nairobi Bottlers and Almasi.
The Management has recognized the debt situation and said they plan to reduce debt (how?) at the parent level and push some debt down onto the project level. Can they sell some mature businesses?

Unga has taken on debt for the new Eldoret wheat plant and Soya Meal Plant but I believe it is manageable given the cashflows.

Smaller holdings (less than 20%) include:
TPSEA which has also taken on substantial debt to expand Nairobi Serena. What I have seen so far makes me happy but I want to see the new rooms. It was beginning to look dated but the new/expanded/updated facilities should attract more MICE business.
I think Serena needs to expand into Westlands/Diani/Kisumu/Runda even if they just manage (not buy) a property. Also it needs a secondary (3-star) brand that can benefit from Serena's expertise.

Equity - The DRC business is doing well but I want to add more at sub-40.

NIC and Stanbic - They will be OK in 2019. NIC+CBA. Stanbic finally seems to have a handle on their NPLs.

Kapchorua, Williamson - Affected by land issues as we get to 2022. Low tea prices. Labor problems. I am keeping what I have BUT not buying more at the moment.

C&G - Imports are problematic with the slow clearing processes and additional costs. Lack of motorcycle plates. Equipment sales are slow with slow payments from GoK. A large vacant property. Provision for bad debts. 1H 2019 doesn't seem promising. One needs a strong stomach. Not selling yet.

Longhorn - A Centum subsidiary. I started buying at 4.50 but the price has jumped quite a bit. The 1H was encouraging. It is pricey on a PER and P/B basis. The "P/BV" is not an appropriate measure given it is about IP. Eventually, I think Centum will sell it and I hope to ride the wave. It is NOT cheap at 6.50 so I am not buying at the moment. The reliance on payments from GoK is worrying. With massive tenderpreneurship in the industry, how can Longhorn keep itself relevant with those who order the books?

Flame Tree - I wanted to add to my position at the lows (2.30-ish) but the price jumped. I will keep what I have and add as needed. I see a very tough 2019. Construction is subdued. Bad debtors abound. Mozambique has lots of issues.

I am a VALUE and LONG-TERM investor so I try to buy when the prices are low but the fundamentals of the firm remain strong. A single bad period for a firm isn't a deterrent but an opportunity.

What worries me is the ECONOMY at large and the FISCAL IMPROPRIETIES since those affect even well-run businesses. The economy has slowed as GoK took on loans for White Elephants. The slow-down in payments by the National Government and thuggery by various counties is hurting the country and legit firms.

Reading the various Annual Reports shows:
Unga has not been paid for the maize subsidy. Huge amounts.
C&G is suffering from lack of motorcycle registration plates since prisons doesn't have sheet metal and paint! Also the interest rate cap has reduced sales of equipment given banks aren't lending as much. Non-payment by GoK to local contractors hurts heavy equipment sales.
NPLs are on the rise for I&M, Stanbic and NIC. It will take time to work through them.
Centum is seeing slow land sales due to various factors including issues at the Lands Office, interest rate cap, economic malaise, etc
Flame Tree has suffered defaults and slowing private sector construction.
KenyaRe suffers from low private sector business activity.

All the above coupled with high T-Bond rates. Why invest in expanding the business when T-Bonds pay much better?
KenyaRe has 14bn in GoK paper!

I am also open to suggestion with well-researched analysis. I am not interested in weak firms hinged on bailouts. I was burnt on ARM after CDC bailed out on it.
That excludes EAPCC, KQ, NBK, HF, etc even though some may do well after the bailouts BUT I want to sleep well.
I also avoid GoK-controlled firms and Merali firms. Wacha nilale! [Yes, I have KenyaRe but I like Mwarania]

It will be a tough 2019 BUT "Get Greedy when others are Fearful"


What of BAT? growth despite the difficult environment, good dividend payout. Don't know about management but they seem to be to have a good track record.


Welcome to BAT, been buying small lots (expensive stock) over the last 1 year (so far a defensive stock and long term capital preservation & appreciation - no crazy capital gains) at prices below 550 bob. At a point i was lucky and got a chunk at 509 bob.

Management of BAT is topnotch and watched from UK, no worries. They are never aggressive in their approach to business, but somehow hacks it year in year out though with small profit dips once in awhile.

Nowadays i don't like crazy speculative stocks, you need to sleep sound and well.

Otherwise you can wait to scoop Safaricom at anything below 25bob. This fuliza thing, plus data expansions/penetration will bring in some good revenue.

Ni hayo tu nduguzanguni.


Asante sana @ann. This is my view as well. It's one of those stocks, defensive, capital preservation like jubilee.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
wukan
#3077 Posted : Saturday, May 11, 2019 12:15:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,186
wukan wrote:
Liv wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Just had a quick look at the finance bill (now law), the implications of the taxes will be devastating:

1. Money velocity is about to go to the dogs. Deflation in earnest really and it won't be kind to any asset class including the NSE.

2. Looks like KE won't be dodging a debt/fiscal crisis.

3. KES devaluation is now almost a certainty, the only question is when.

4. Political and civil upheaval is expected coz the only language treasury understands is increasing taxes. The other half of the 8% VAT will be imposed at the very latest in the 2019/20 budget.

5. Capital gains tax especially on real estate will be increased substantially.






I agree with your conclusion point 1 above based on the new law.

A). How do you come to the other 4 points in your conclusion based on the new law?

B) How does KES devaluation become a certainty in an environment of deflation?

C) conclusion point 4 is just wishful thinking in my view.... It will not happen in Kenya as we are so divided by tribe and we follow our tribal leaders.


A. Based on the level of desperation shown by Treasury to pass the new law...you get that nakumatt feeling. The market is pretty good at smelling desperation. The sharks will start gathering same way they did in Turkey and Argentina. We told IMF to f*** off with their insurance cover.

B. @lochaz-index has previously posted that the interest rate cap operates like a currency peg. It's deflationary at at time when KE has piled up debt. It's also helping our current account by slowing down consumption of imports. It's almost like we are artificially propping KES. When the peg can't be defended because of reduced forex reserves then Pray Pray Pray for KES. You might see KES beyond 120.

C. In 2002 it was "yote yawezekana" so let's just watch the unfolding events.



Let's watch the unfolding eventsSad

Quote:
With all this talk about “revolution” making the rounds in social media and other platforms, I became curious to know what exactly it entails in our context, and why both our ruling and middle classes ought to be afraid — very afraid.
https://www.nation.co.ke...440808-5109886-12mh9r2/


Quote:
Kenya is doomed unless urgent measures are taken to usher in reforms.
The bishops pronounced themselves on a wide range of issues ranging from corruption to suicides, wanton murder and runaway gambling.

“Dear Kenyans, we note with concern the despair setting in our country because of our inability to find lasting solutions to our political, social and economic challenges,” warned the statement read by KCCB chair, Archbishop Philip Anyolo and his deputy Bishop John Oballa.
https://www.standardmedi...-is-doomed-bishops-warn


Quote:
The Central Bank of Kenya has been accused of managing the shilling and overvaluing it by up to 30 percent.

A report titled ‘Kenya’s Economic Puzzle-Putting the pieces together’ insinuates that the CBK has not been operating a free float currency.

“…the value Ksh.100 could buy in January 2009 can only buy 50percent of that now,” said the statement from Amana Capital, the firm behind the report.
https://citizentv.co.ke/...c-report-claims-244514/
littledove
#3078 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 12:06:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 722
Location: sky
the carnage continues
safaricom 26.50
equity 36.50
kcb 38.60
nic 29

There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
wukan
#3079 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 12:31:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,186
littledove wrote:
the carnage continues
safaricom 26.50
equity 36.50
kcb 38.60
nic 29



pigs get slaughtered and Bitcoin goes above 8K
mnandii
#3080 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 1:45:21 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,843
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

My target for the bottom of this index remains in between the two green lines i.e between 1700 - 1370s. That should complete wave [c] of Y. Our immediate target for now is the March 2009 low at 2332.

A detailed look at wave [c] is coming up.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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