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2018 Best Stock To Own......What's Your Prediction?
sparkly
#201 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 7:46:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 6,846
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@VVS I know you dont trust Meralli but what do you think of Sasini Fundamentals? They are diversifying into high value macademia and avocados.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Horton
#202 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 8:33:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,396
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
HY2 2018 not good for stocks.

I have re-invested my HY1 capital gains and dividends in NMG, NIC and HAFR. Now waiting for 2019.

My portfolio is as follows:

Stock - ABP - % Portfolio

1. Kengen - KES 6.64 - 24%.

2. Stanbic - KES 96.5 - 15%. Tier 2

3. TPS - KES 28.6 - 15%. Tier 2

4. Kenya Re - KES 18.8 - 14%.
Core
5. NMG - KES 92.2 - 14%.

6. NIC - KES 29.6 - 11%. Tier 2

7. HAFR - KES 1.09 - 7%.

Ready for 2019.

Apart from those listed, we have little in common! The Tier 2 are less than 5% each of my portfolio and bought a few years back.


@VVS what are your core holdings apart from Kenya Re? ... KK, I&M, WTK

Unga - Profitable and pays a dividend
KK - Profitable and pays a dividend
I&M [Banks in general including Equity, NIC, Stanbic] Profitable and pays a dividend

WTK/KAPC is Tier 2 (was Tier 1) at the moment. I became queasy when the "land grabs" started with demands for not renewing leases. Most of their farms are in Nandi/RV where we have seen political violence erupt often.
I like the business even though it is cyclical BUT the farms can disappear in 2023.
Think Zimbabwe and now SA.

I will have to find replacements for Unga and KK if they get taken out but let's not run ahead of ourselves. I am waiting for Rubis to complete their takeover. Unga is tougher but I can wait.


You don't have any of the big caps in your Portfolio.


And u wrote off arm ? What happened to OLYMPIA? U cash out of that?
Yes and Yes. Years ago, I did a "purge" and got rid of most of the shares in "bandia" firms.
KQ, OCHL, Uchumi (at a profit), ADSS, etc.
Like many investors, I used to buy everything... BAD MISTAKE.
I went to Buffettian principles, and cleaned house, and reduced my holdings to a max of 15 but only 5 constituted 75%-90%.

WTK was one of the 5 but I cashed out. I returned to KAPC/WTK in a small way recently. I also sold Equity at a profit.

I may end up selling my KK and Unga in 2019 which will leave me with KenRe and I&M.

Replacements: Centum [been buying slowly], Equity, KAPC/WTK, Safaricom [sub-25]
Note that all are currently profitable and pay a dividend though WTK/KAPC profits (& dividends) are cyclical.


Centum-they seem to value employees more than shareholders.Employees are paid billions in bonuses while shareholders are paid some millions in dividends.
Yes and No. Look at Safcom where the dividend/share may seem low but the aggregate dividend is huge. BTW, Mworia is a top 10 shareholder in Centum.



Seems like you haven’t learnt your lesson regarding NAV. Remember NAV can be fudged as we saw recently. Not sure about the valuations centum have and how much of it is bias. Tread carefully here, I had invested here until I saw the light. I pulled the plug at a small profit but it was purely luck. This stock as Ericsson has pointed out severally has more than meets the eye.
I own shares in EQTY @39/-, CYTONN, BRK.B, Almasi Beverages and a few other private small businesses

VituVingiSana
#203 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 9:49:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,679
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
@VVS I know you dont trust Meralli but what do you think of Sasini Fundamentals? They are diversifying into high value macademia and avocados.
I do not know.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#204 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2018 10:00:17 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,679
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
HY2 2018 not good for stocks.

I have re-invested my HY1 capital gains and dividends in NMG, NIC and HAFR. Now waiting for 2019.

My portfolio is as follows:

Stock - ABP - % Portfolio

1. Kengen - KES 6.64 - 24%.

2. Stanbic - KES 96.5 - 15%. Tier 2

3. TPS - KES 28.6 - 15%. Tier 2

4. Kenya Re - KES 18.8 - 14%.
Core
5. NMG - KES 92.2 - 14%.

6. NIC - KES 29.6 - 11%. Tier 2

7. HAFR - KES 1.09 - 7%.

Ready for 2019.

Apart from those listed, we have little in common! The Tier 2 are less than 5% each of my portfolio and bought a few years back.


@VVS what are your core holdings apart from Kenya Re? ... KK, I&M, WTK

Unga - Profitable and pays a dividend
KK - Profitable and pays a dividend
I&M [Banks in general including Equity, NIC, Stanbic] Profitable and pays a dividend

WTK/KAPC is Tier 2 (was Tier 1) at the moment. I became queasy when the "land grabs" started with demands for not renewing leases. Most of their farms are in Nandi/RV where we have seen political violence erupt often.
I like the business even though it is cyclical BUT the farms can disappear in 2023.
Think Zimbabwe and now SA.

I will have to find replacements for Unga and KK if they get taken out but let's not run ahead of ourselves. I am waiting for Rubis to complete their takeover. Unga is tougher but I can wait.


You don't have any of the big caps in your Portfolio.


And u wrote off arm ? What happened to OLYMPIA? U cash out of that?
Yes and Yes. Years ago, I did a "purge" and got rid of most of the shares in "bandia" firms.
KQ, OCHL, Uchumi (at a profit), ADSS, etc.
Like many investors, I used to buy everything... BAD MISTAKE.
I went to Buffettian principles, and cleaned house, and reduced my holdings to a max of 15 but only 5 constituted 75%-90%.

WTK was one of the 5 but I cashed out. I returned to KAPC/WTK in a small way recently. I also sold Equity at a profit.

I may end up selling my KK and Unga in 2019 which will leave me with KenRe and I&M.

Replacements: Centum [been buying slowly], Equity, KAPC/WTK, Safaricom [sub-25]
Note that all are currently profitable and pay a dividend though WTK/KAPC profits (& dividends) are cyclical.


Centum-they seem to value employees more than shareholders.Employees are paid billions in bonuses while shareholders are paid some millions in dividends.
Yes and No. Look at Safcom where the dividend/share may seem low but the aggregate dividend is huge. BTW, Mworia is a top 10 shareholder in Centum.



Seems like you haven’t learnt your lesson regarding NAV. Remember NAV can be fudged as we saw recently. Not sure about the valuations centum have and how much of it is bias. Tread carefully here, I had invested here until I saw the light. I pulled the plug at a small profit but it was purely luck. This stock as Ericsson has pointed out severally has more than meets the eye.
I'll will keep my ear to the ground BUT I am not in a (cash) position to switch at the moment. The stated NAV is 73/- and current price is 30/-.

Cash and cashflow are very important and currently Centum has sufficient cashflow to manage its OPEX.

Fudging: NAV, EPS, etc can all be fudged. Many years ago, KCB used to announce huge EPS (low PER) but it was all fake.

I do trust Mworia but I am also open to changing my mind.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#205 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2019 7:25:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 6,846
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
@sparkly we are ahead of schedule in the race to KES 14. It appears that we wont even get to 28.10.2018 before you change your status in my honor


The inaugural USA direct flight of 28/10/2018 has not excited the price of KQ. Bet fails both ways

Agreed.. But remember there was an active strike threat which bore it's ugly head this week. Technically, KQ would have traded at KES 14 by today d'oh!


Would have, could have, should have but didn't happen.


KQ now below 7 bob, at 6.86. Prediction didn't happen by 28.10.2018 but did only 4 months later.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#206 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2019 12:06:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,679
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
@sparkly we are ahead of schedule in the race to KES 14. It appears that we wont even get to 28.10.2018 before you change your status in my honor


The inaugural USA direct flight of 28/10/2018 has not excited the price of KQ. Bet fails both ways

Agreed.. But remember there was an active strike threat which bore it's ugly head this week. Technically, KQ would have traded at KES 14 by today d'oh!


Would have, could have, should have but didn't happen.


KQ now below 7 bob, at 6.86. Prediction didn't happen by 28.10.2018 but did only 4 months later.
Reminds of KenGen vs KK d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#207 Posted : Wednesday, March 06, 2019 7:34:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 6,846
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I hope KQLC is selling this piece of junk!
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Year offering traders massive discounts.. KQ at KES 7.95 is witchcraft

7.00 was the VWAP on 21st Sep 2018

Dear @Obiero, please rally your relatives to buy KQLC's stake.

Say no more.. watch and learn


You better exit quickly if you can. If you look at the chart closely, you will see that the price is falling over the cliff on a large volume.


Traders milking the cash making opportunity while Buffetists hallucinate over cliffs


How much cash have you milked from KQ Sad

In wazua we share opportunities for making money, it's not about me



True captain

In just 7 trading sessions between Sept 24th to 02nd October.. We have seen a heavy spike of KES 7.10 to KES 11 representing 57% gains on the KQ share. Next stop KES 14.. Thank me later

Let me leave this here

@sparkly it's not too late to call off the bet

The rally of a lifetime being witnessed by outsiders. Only one wazuan has opened up to the opportunity

On an uptrend.. Imaginary cliffs dispelled. Resistance levels at KES 21.5




Now below 6 bob. The cliff if very real!
Life is short. Live passionately.
Mucher
#208 Posted : Tuesday, March 12, 2019 3:42:18 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/15/2019
Posts: 20
Like each year at this time I am also asking myself the same question – who is going to be the winner of the market for this year? I was considering tech industry as potential winner as they underperformed during last year. Eventually AMZN took first place in 2018
VituVingiSana
#209 Posted : Tuesday, March 12, 2019 8:03:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,679
Location: Nairobi
@sprakly this gem by @obiero
"Traders milking the cash making opportunity while Buffetists hallucinate over cliffs"
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#210 Posted : Tuesday, March 12, 2019 9:04:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 11,445
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@sprakly this gem by @obiero
"Traders milking the cash making opportunity while Buffetists hallucinate over cliffs"

Very well written by @obiero
COOP 5,500; KCB 3,700; KQ 221,100
sparkly
#211 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2019 8:33:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 6,846
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I hope KQLC is selling this piece of junk!
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Year offering traders massive discounts.. KQ at KES 7.95 is witchcraft

7.00 was the VWAP on 21st Sep 2018

Dear @Obiero, please rally your relatives to buy KQLC's stake.

Say no more.. watch and learn


You better exit quickly if you can. If you look at the chart closely, you will see that the price is falling over the cliff on a large volume.


Traders milking the cash making opportunity while Buffetists hallucinate over cliffs


How much cash have you milked from KQ Sad

In wazua we share opportunities for making money, it's not about me



True captain

In just 7 trading sessions between Sept 24th to 02nd October.. We have seen a heavy spike of KES 7.10 to KES 11 representing 57% gains on the KQ share. Next stop KES 14.. Thank me later

Let me leave this here

@sparkly it's not too late to call off the bet

The rally of a lifetime being witnessed by outsiders. Only one wazuan has opened up to the opportunity

On an uptrend.. Imaginary cliffs dispelled. Resistance levels at KES 21.5




Now below 6 bob. The cliff if very real!


Price at End of Day on 29 March 2019 KShs 4.90. I say no more.
Life is short. Live passionately.
xxxxx
#212 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2019 9:17:01 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2008
Posts: 434




Now below 6 bob. The cliff if very real!
[/quote]

Price at End of Day on 29 March 2019 KShs 4.90. I say no more.[/quote]

@obiero's conviction when holding onto a clear and known loser is astonishing. Wazuans would be trillionaires if each of us could have such conviction to hold onto just one winner.
obiero
#213 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2019 9:30:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 11,445
Location: nairobi
xxxxx wrote:




Now below 6 bob. The cliff if very real!


Price at End of Day on 29 March 2019 KShs 4.90. I say no more
[/quote]

@obiero's conviction when holding onto a clear and known loser is astonishing. Wazuans would be trillionaires if each of us could have such conviction to hold onto just one winner.
[/quote]
The Kenya Airways share is one that I have tracked closely since 2012 and I opposed the Rights Issue right here on wazua but after its initial plunge post Rights Issue, it simply had to be bought. Then came Westgate, Ebola, Crude rise, ME competition against Project Mawingu etc That led TN to jettison out of a plunging craft. The price was down, and continued to slide but with every day new measures by Ngunze and then MJ, and now Sebastian. I am down 78% but with no immediate need for the cash, let me ride this plane until fuel runs out or I sight an airstrip
COOP 5,500; KCB 3,700; KQ 221,100
VituVingiSana
#214 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2019 10:10:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,679
Location: Nairobi
Yaani, to think someone was dissing KK Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
And Unga
And I&M
And even KenRe
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#215 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2019 11:47:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 11,445
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Yaani, to think someone was dissing KK Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
And Unga
And I&M
And even KenRe

KK was a fluke.. And you were sold short. The real price of that share was KES 40 at the very least based on their asset types
COOP 5,500; KCB 3,700; KQ 221,100
VituVingiSana
#216 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2019 1:34:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,679
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Yaani, to think someone was dissing KK Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
And Unga
And I&M
And even KenRe

KK was a fluke.. And you were sold short. The real price of that share was KES 40 at the very least based on their asset types

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly "Fluke" "Short"
Someone was was spitting vitriol at KK while the takeover was on.
97% decided to sell at 23/- smile

Kuna wengi hapo, tulikula manna kutoka Ufaransa. Laughing out loudly Applause Laughing out loudly Applause Laughing out loudly

We did not want to wait for the "Open Offer" d'oh!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#217 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2019 2:20:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 11,445
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Yaani, to think someone was dissing KK Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
And Unga
And I&M
And even KenRe

KK was a fluke.. And you were sold short. The real price of that share was KES 40 at the very least based on their asset types

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly "Fluke" "Short"
Someone was was spitting vitriol at KK while the takeover was on.
97% decided to sell at 23/- smile

Kuna wengi hapo, tulikula manna kutoka Ufaransa. Laughing out loudly Applause Laughing out loudly Applause Laughing out loudly

We did not want to wait for the "Open Offer" d'oh!

But surely you know that you bought your KK at KES 23.. Which manna are you talking about
COOP 5,500; KCB 3,700; KQ 221,100
VituVingiSana
#218 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2019 8:05:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,679
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Yaani, to think someone was dissing KK Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
And Unga
And I&M
And even KenRe

KK was a fluke.. And you were sold short. The real price of that share was KES 40 at the very least based on their asset types

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly "Fluke" "Short"
Someone was was spitting vitriol at KK while the takeover was on.
97% decided to sell at 23/- smile

Kuna wengi hapo, tulikula manna kutoka Ufaransa. Laughing out loudly Applause Laughing out loudly Applause Laughing out loudly

We did not want to wait for the "Open Offer" d'oh!

But surely you know that you bought your KK at KES 23.. Which manna are you talking about
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly You are a funny chap. Lakini, as the waingereza say:
The proof in the pudding is in the eating.
Sisi (@maichblack and many others) tumekula Applause Applause Applause

Anyway, KK is no longer a concern. Now I am focusing on other firms.
No, KQ is not one of them.
Not at 5/- not at 4/- and not at 3/- Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#219 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 9:47:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,935
Location: nairobi
The nse has become a place to lose your money think twice before choosing a stock.the much hyped k-re is approaching below 10
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Superprime1
#220 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 10:19:13 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/2/2018
Posts: 194
mlennyma wrote:
The nse has become a place to lose your money think twice before choosing a stock.the much hyped k-re is approaching below 10

There's a reason why they are called paper gains/losses; it's what you do with them that matters. If you want to lose, you will, and vice versa.
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