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45 Pages«<42434445>
Is Taking a Mortgage the WORST Decision Ever??
dunkang
#861 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2016 3:35:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,765
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
sanity wrote:
dunkang wrote:
According to the following "Experts", the bubble is here;
- Knight Franks
- Hass Consult (WAH!!!)
- Cytonn
- Central Bank

"the real estate sector recorded the highest increase in non-performing loans, by Sh5.9 billion or 42.3 per cent, according to a report by the Central Bank of Kenya"

"Prime rents for Nairobi fell 7.9 per cent in quarter one of 2016, according to the report, which pointed out that for the past four years, rents in Kenya’s capital have been declining."

"Land prices in Mlolongo and Athi River have fallen by 10 per cent and four per cent, respectively, signalling a decline in demand for housing."


Let them keep dreaming...


http://www.nation.co.ke/...23544-ns7h49/index.html

sio mimi, ni "experts".
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

murchr
#862 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2016 5:18:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 14,107
If 5.9B is a bubble then we have seen nothing yet. This is a glut. The problem with Kenyans is we never use data in anything. Athi River Kitengela Syokimau are now over crowded, the more you are the less the returns. People still need housing but what kind of housing and where should lead you to investment
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
iris
#863 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2016 6:17:50 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2014
Posts: 211
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
If 5.9B is a bubble then we have seen nothing yet. This is a glut. The problem with Kenyans is we never use data in anything. Athi River Kitengela Syokimau are now over crowded, the more you are the less the returns. People still need housing but what kind of housing and where should lead you to investment

Applause Applause Applause
The Great
#864 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2016 4:31:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/9/2015
Posts: 230



@iris kwani oxygen imeenda wapi? Before you brush him off let us get what he mans first. @Swenani Im interested in this theory and why you are paying for them yourself. Explain kama niko preunit
"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
MaichBlack
#865 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2016 4:49:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,229
Sikio la kufa halisikii dawa!!!

Once the prices of land and rents start going down, and land companies have "60% sold" for more than 2 years, it is time to open your eyes, ears and mind.

It was unimaginable to Kenyans that you can buy a plot and the price REDUCES by 10% a year later. Very many things are still unimaginable to Kenyans...
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
murchr
#866 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2016 5:15:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 14,107
MaichBlack wrote:
Sikio la kufa halisikii dawa!!!

Once the prices of land and rents start going down, and land companies have "60% sold" for more than 2 years, it is time to open your eyes, ears and mind.

It was unimaginable to Kenyans that you can buy a plot and the price REDUCES by 10% a year later. Very many things are still unimaginable to Kenyans...


Land prices have to obey the laws of demand and supply like everything else. So many factors are in play. Forexample.

I buy land in Mavoko plain land nyasi tu with information that KU might/will set up the School of agriculture and animal husbandry in the next few plots. Not many know this- 2 years, GOK announces the plan and construction dates etc- ...ofcourse the demand of land in the neighborhood will go up, wanjiku will come flocking looking for a piece of that (1/8) to put up a flat so as to construct hostels right? After those 2 years, nothing is on the ground, Wanjiku is now wondering, was this a hoax? So they start selling, slowly the shift happens the market gets more sellers than buyers. What does that do to price? Price elasticity of demand and supply.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Akenyan2014
#867 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2016 5:19:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
MaichBlack wrote:
Sikio la kufa halisikii dawa!!!

Once the prices of land and rents start going down, and land companies have "60% sold" for more than 2 years, it is time to open your eyes, ears and mind.

It was unimaginable to Kenyans that you can buy a plot and the price REDUCES by 10% a year later. Very many things are still unimaginable to Kenyans...


Kindly address the question of the lower class segment insatiable demand.
MaichBlack
#868 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2016 7:05:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,229
Akenyan2014 wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Sikio la kufa halisikii dawa!!!

Once the prices of land and rents start going down, and land companies have "60% sold" for more than 2 years, it is time to open your eyes, ears and mind.

It was unimaginable to Kenyans that you can buy a plot and the price REDUCES by 10% a year later. Very many things are still unimaginable to Kenyans...


Kindly address the question of the lower class segment insatiable demand.

Somebody here said demand means nothing without a means to pay!

Example: The number of people who travel by air is less than 10% of those who would want or even need to travel by air. But airlines are still struggling. Why? The 90% will HAVE TO travel by road or even cancel the journey all together! Extrapolate that to other markets...
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
winmak
#869 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2016 10:01:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 402
Location: Nakuru
MaichBlack wrote:
Akenyan2014 wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Sikio la kufa halisikii dawa!!!

Once the prices of land and rents start going down, and land companies have "60% sold" for more than 2 years, it is time to open your eyes, ears and mind.

It was unimaginable to Kenyans that you can buy a plot and the price REDUCES by 10% a year later. Very many things are still unimaginable to Kenyans...


Kindly address the question of the lower class segment insatiable demand.

Somebody here said demand means nothing without a means to pay!

Example: The number of people who travel by air is less than 10% of those who would want or even need to travel by air. But airlines are still struggling. Why? The 90% will HAVE TO travel by road or even cancel the journey all together! Extrapolate that to other markets...

Word
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
murchr
#870 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2016 10:08:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 14,107
MaichBlack wrote:
Akenyan2014 wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Sikio la kufa halisikii dawa!!!

Once the prices of land and rents start going down, and land companies have "60% sold" for more than 2 years, it is time to open your eyes, ears and mind.

It was unimaginable to Kenyans that you can buy a plot and the price REDUCES by 10% a year later. Very many things are still unimaginable to Kenyans...


Kindly address the question of the lower class segment insatiable demand.

Somebody here said demand means nothing without a means to pay!

Example: The number of people who travel by air is less than 10% of those who would want or even need to travel by air. But airlines are still struggling. Why? The 90% will HAVE TO travel by road or even cancel the journey all together! Extrapolate that to other markets...


There can be no demand with if theres no pay....
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
alutacontinua
#871 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2016 7:31:36 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
https://centralbank.go.k...pervision-annual-report

Just read through section 2.8 Residential Mortgages Market Survey 2015:

Summarized it below

1. Value of mortgage loan assets stands at 203.3B vs. 164.0B in 2014.(Up 23%)

2. Total number of mortgages is 24,458 vs. 22,013 in 2014 (Up 11.11%)

3. Outstanding value of Non-Performing Mortgages is 11.7B vs. 10.8B in 2014. (Up 8.33%)

4. The NPLs to gross mortgage loans was 5.8% which was below the industry ratio of 7.0%

5. 89.3% of mortgage loans were on variable interest basis compared to 92.5% in 2014.

6. 71.6% of lending to the mortgage market was by 5 institutions i.e. One medium sized bank (23.4%) and 4 banks from the large banks peer group (48.2%) (Specific banks are not mentioned)

7. Number of institutions offering mortgages were 34 compared to 37 in 2014 due to liquidation of Dubai Bank and placement of Imperial Bank Limited and Chase Bank Limited in receivership.
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
Kurious
#872 Posted : Thursday, October 20, 2016 7:33:41 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/26/2013
Posts: 15
alutacontinua wrote:
https://centralbank.go.ke/index.php/news/498-2015-bank-supervision-annual-report

Just read through section 2.8 Residential Mortgages Market Survey 2015:

Summarized it below

1. Value of mortgage loan assets stands at 203.3B vs. 164.0B in 2014.(Up 23%)

2. Total number of mortgages is 24,458 vs. 22,013 in 2014 (Up 11.11%)

3. Outstanding value of Non-Performing Mortgages is 11.7B vs. 10.8B in 2014. (Up 8.33%)

4. The NPLs to gross mortgage loans was 5.8% which was below the industry ratio of 7.0%

5. 89.3% of mortgage loans were on variable interest basis compared to 92.5% in 2014.

6. 71.6% of lending to the mortgage market was by 5 institutions i.e. One medium sized bank (23.4%) and 4 banks from the large banks peer group (48.2%) (Specific banks are not mentioned)

7. Number of institutions offering mortgages were 34 compared to 37 in 2014 due to liquidation of Dubai Bank and placement of Imperial Bank Limited and Chase Bank Limited in receivership.



Great summary that shows the trend, it would be interesting to see how the 2016 mortgage outlook will compare to the 2015 one.
Dahatre
#873 Posted : Wednesday, December 21, 2016 8:16:07 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/21/2009
Posts: 515
Interesting twitter thread about mortgages--A bit biased against them, but the statistics are interesting:

Creating affordable mortgages is an area ready for MAJOR disruption..

https://twitter.com/dnah...tatus/811308410335612928
washiku
#874 Posted : Thursday, March 15, 2018 8:30:19 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/9/2007
Posts: 13,062
obiero
#875 Posted : Thursday, March 15, 2018 9:12:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 11,073
Location: nairobi
washiku wrote:
The discussion continues, two years later

https://mobile.nation.co...41826-ou6p6g/index.html

Most Kenyans cannot afford the rents right now
COOP 5,500; KCB 3,700; KQ 96,100
Wakanyugi
#876 Posted : Friday, March 16, 2018 1:08:11 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,515
obiero wrote:
washiku wrote:
The discussion continues, two years later

https://mobile.nation.co...41826-ou6p6g/index.html

Most Kenyans cannot afford the rents right now


Actually the famed real estate sector burst has already happened but in the high price segment. Demand for mid and lower class housing is however so high that this correction will have no effect on this segment. This is where Uhuru should focus all his housing effort under the big 4. It is also where margins are likely to remain highest.
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
wukan
#877 Posted : Friday, March 16, 2018 2:50:42 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,007
Wakanyugi wrote:
obiero wrote:
washiku wrote:
The discussion continues, two years later

https://mobile.nation.co...41826-ou6p6g/index.html

Most Kenyans cannot afford the rents right now


Actually the famed real estate sector burst has already happened but in the high price segment. Demand for mid and lower class housing is however so high that this correction will have no effect on this segment. This is where Uhuru should focus all his housing effort under the big 4. It is also where margins are likely to remain highest.


Demand describes a consumer's desire and willingness to pay a price for specific good or service. If the consumer cannot rent then he will not generate demand. If demand was so high then the private sector would have rushed to supply houses to meet this segment.

A decent mid/lower class house of 3m at 12% interest spread over 20 years will require 33k per month. Simply put the consumer lacks the purchasing power and as such resources/capital should be better utilized in lifting the consumer's purchasing power not subsidizing his poverty.
obiero
#878 Posted : Monday, April 30, 2018 4:11:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 11,073
Location: nairobi
wukan wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
obiero wrote:
washiku wrote:
The discussion continues, two years later

https://mobile.nation.co...41826-ou6p6g/index.html

Most Kenyans cannot afford the rents right now


Actually the famed real estate sector burst has already happened but in the high price segment. Demand for mid and lower class housing is however so high that this correction will have no effect on this segment. This is where Uhuru should focus all his housing effort under the big 4. It is also where margins are likely to remain highest.


Demand describes a consumer's desire and willingness to pay a price for specific good or service. If the consumer cannot rent then he will not generate demand. If demand was so high then the private sector would have rushed to supply houses to meet this segment.

A decent mid/lower class house of 3m at 12% interest spread over 20 years will require 33k per month. Simply put the consumer lacks the purchasing power and as such resources/capital should be better utilized in lifting the consumer's purchasing power not subsidizing his poverty.

@wukan.. meanwhile, there is a property sold weeks ago in Magnolia Close Karen going at KES 600m to a Kenyan! https://answersafrica.co...as-luxurious-houses.html
COOP 5,500; KCB 3,700; KQ 96,100
wukan
#879 Posted : Monday, April 30, 2018 5:04:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,007
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
obiero wrote:
washiku wrote:
The discussion continues, two years later

https://mobile.nation.co...41826-ou6p6g/index.html

Most Kenyans cannot afford the rents right now


Actually the famed real estate sector burst has already happened but in the high price segment. Demand for mid and lower class housing is however so high that this correction will have no effect on this segment. This is where Uhuru should focus all his housing effort under the big 4. It is also where margins are likely to remain highest.


Demand describes a consumer's desire and willingness to pay a price for specific good or service. If the consumer cannot rent then he will not generate demand. If demand was so high then the private sector would have rushed to supply houses to meet this segment.

A decent mid/lower class house of 3m at 12% interest spread over 20 years will require 33k per month. Simply put the consumer lacks the purchasing power and as such resources/capital should be better utilized in lifting the consumer's purchasing power not subsidizing his poverty.

@wukan.. meanwhile, there is a property sold weeks ago in Magnolia Close Karen going at KES 600m to a Kenyan! https://answersafrica.co...s-luxurious-houses.html


Wow! that like 1 acre in CBD.
muandiwambeu
#880 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 10:37:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,096
you have been enjoying a lot, something nasty just went into the mix, and profuse sweltering is going to be the order of the day inside this housed'oh! d'oh! d'oh! d'oh! d'oh! Sad .
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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