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Centum HY 2018/2019
rwitre
#41 Posted : Tuesday, May 07, 2019 11:12:01 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 380
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
rwitre wrote:
Been looking to diversify and include a blue chip with high potential for capital gains...(because dividends don't multiply wealth fast enough, and high-beta stocks will ruin quality of sleep).

Settled on Centum with its discount on NAV, plus the headstrong management that has a firm handle on things.

My one concern is the circa Sh50 billion in a fresh private equity (PE) being sought, how prudently it will be used, and its impact on the balance sheet. But seeing the track record of the board in selecting firms to sink money into (plus the insistence on focusing on cash generating companies, and not greenfield ventures or turn-around types), am optimistic.



im also in the process of changing my attitude towards centum.I went into their historical background and i liked the initial purpose of forming it.


Those counters that force you to average upwards in the middle of a bear market...smh.
Anyway...finished my accumulation on this one. ABP: Sh.30.80

Let's see where Mworia and co. drive this bus.


VituVingiSana
#42 Posted : Tuesday, May 07, 2019 11:30:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,584
Location: Nairobi
Isuzu inks vehicle financing deal with Gulf African Bank
https://www.businessdail...04814-8woxa1/index.html

Centum owns shares in Isuzu EA.
Isuzu was the only major dealer to grow sales in the first quarter ended March in what is attributed to special financing deals with lenders such as Co-op Bank .
The dealer’s unit sales in the review period rose to 1,019 from 891 a year earlier while orders in the overall industry fell 14.5 per cent to 2,741 units.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#43 Posted : Wednesday, May 08, 2019 6:58:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,737
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Isuzu inks vehicle financing deal with Gulf African Bank
https://www.businessdail...04814-8woxa1/index.html

Centum owns shares in Isuzu EA.
Isuzu was the only major dealer to grow sales in the first quarter ended March in what is attributed to special financing deals with lenders such as Co-op Bank .
The dealer’s unit sales in the review period rose to 1,019 from 891 a year earlier while orders in the overall industry fell 14.5 per cent to 2,741 units.


Sidian wipes out all those gains
VituVingiSana
#44 Posted : Wednesday, May 08, 2019 8:44:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,584
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Isuzu inks vehicle financing deal with Gulf African Bank
https://www.businessdail...04814-8woxa1/index.html

Centum owns shares in Isuzu EA.
Isuzu was the only major dealer to grow sales in the first quarter ended March in what is attributed to special financing deals with lenders such as Co-op Bank .
The dealer’s unit sales in the review period rose to 1,019 from 891 a year earlier while orders in the overall industry fell 14.5 per cent to 2,741 units.


Sidian wipes out all those gains
Isn't it a good thing Centum has some good businesses that help mitigate the losses in others?
After all, one can't win them all, all the time.

Berkshire Hathaway took a hit on Wells Fargo but had gains in Bank of America. Losses in Kraft-Heinz but gains in Burlington.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. I am a patient investor just as I was with KK.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#45 Posted : Wednesday, May 08, 2019 8:46:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,584
Location: Nairobi
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#46 Posted : Wednesday, May 08, 2019 9:22:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,409
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.


Soda is going out of fashion and so are hard copy books. While people are increasingly flying..
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 2,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KNRE 100,000 ABP 2.90; KQ 392,100 ABP 8.32
VituVingiSana
#47 Posted : Wednesday, May 08, 2019 10:14:55 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,584
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.


Soda is going out of fashion and so are hard copy books. While people are increasingly flying..

Soda is going out of fashion
True. That's why Coca-Cola bottlers the world over are expanding their water and juice bottling operations.
and so are hard copy books.
True. That's why publishing firms are moving into e-publishing.
While people are increasingly flying True. More Kenyans than ever are using Silverstone, Skyward, Fly540, Ethiopian, Emirates, BA, Lufthansa, RwandAir, etc. Soon we will have Uganda Air and Air Tanzania though I doubt they will last very long.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
rwitre
#48 Posted : Wednesday, May 08, 2019 10:15:55 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 380
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.


Ericsson
#49 Posted : Thursday, May 09, 2019 1:00:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,737
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.



Don't forget the company has a debt of ksh.23bn in its books
VituVingiSana
#50 Posted : Thursday, May 09, 2019 1:26:58 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,584
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.



Don't forget the company has a debt of ksh.23bn in its books
Yes, with assets of 67bn+ (which includes cash and near cash) so debt is less than 33% of the total assets.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Monk
#51 Posted : Thursday, May 09, 2019 8:39:59 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 114
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.


Soda is going out of fashion and so are hard copy books. While people are increasingly flying..

Soda is going out of fashion
True. That's why Coca-Cola bottlers the world over are expanding their water and juice bottling operations.
and so are hard copy books.
True. That's why publishing firms are moving into e-publishing.
While people are increasingly flying True. More Kenyans than ever are using Silverstone, Skyward, Fly540, Ethiopian, Emirates, BA, Lufthansa, RwandAir, etc. Soon we will have Uganda Air and Air Tanzania though I doubt they will last very long.


@VVS The last one...mischievous! I'm surprised @Obiero didn't have a comeback smile
heri
#52 Posted : Thursday, May 09, 2019 8:41:47 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 699
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.



Don't forget the company has a debt of ksh.23bn in its books
Yes, with assets of 67bn+ (which includes cash and near cash) so debt is less than 33% of the total assets.


Hopefully those assets are really worth 67bn
VituVingiSana
#53 Posted : Thursday, May 09, 2019 9:27:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,584
Location: Nairobi
heri wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.



Don't forget the company has a debt of ksh.23bn in its books
Yes, with assets of 67bn+ (which includes cash and near cash) so debt is less than 33% of the total assets.


Hopefully those assets are really worth 67bn
Reduce those assets by 17bn to knock out Amu, Akiira, part of TRDL and TRLC, Greenblade and part of Pearl Marina.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#54 Posted : Thursday, May 09, 2019 9:43:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,737
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
heri wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.



Don't forget the company has a debt of ksh.23bn in its books
Yes, with assets of 67bn+ (which includes cash and near cash) so debt is less than 33% of the total assets.


Hopefully those assets are really worth 67bn
Reduce those assets by 17bn to knock out Amu, Akiira, part of TRDL and TRLC, Greenblade and part of Pearl Marina.


Which ones are Cash Generating Units
rwitre
#55 Posted : Thursday, May 09, 2019 10:24:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 380
Location: Nairobi
heri wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.



Don't forget the company has a debt of ksh.23bn in its books
Yes, with assets of 67bn+ (which includes cash and near cash) so debt is less than 33% of the total assets.


Hopefully those assets are really worth 67bn



Actually they are worth more. Centum is conservative in its valuations. Realized price upon sale is always higher.
Ericsson
#56 Posted : Thursday, May 09, 2019 10:28:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,737
Location: NAIROBI
rwitre wrote:
heri wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.



Don't forget the company has a debt of ksh.23bn in its books
Yes, with assets of 67bn+ (which includes cash and near cash) so debt is less than 33% of the total assets.


Hopefully those assets are really worth 67bn



Actually they are worth more. Centum is conservative in its valuations. Realized price upon sale is always higher.


They are worth less.
Remember they had to value down their holding in Isuzu Motors.
Same as the land which they hold is valued more e.g an acre at Two Rivers at ksh.450mn really?
rwitre
#57 Posted : Thursday, May 09, 2019 10:49:54 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 380
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
rwitre wrote:
heri wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I'll keep this little reminder. When quoting the below, do quote the entire post.

As of 8th May 2019, I remain bullish on Centum at current prices (32-33). This is slowly heading towards Tier 1 status for me. 2018-19 (Year Ended 31st March 2019) will be tough for Centum given the headwinds the economy has faced but I am a patient investor.

Some divisions/subsidiaries/investments will underperform. Some will fail. As long as the overall pie grows in the long-term, it is all good.

Businesses facing challenges:
- Sidian
- Amu
- Akiira
- TRDL+TRLC

Gems but they may also face challenges in the future:
- Nairobi Bottlers+Almasi
- Longhorn
- Vipingo
- Nabo

Some have asked me for my next set of picks to replace KK. Well, Centum is definitely on the list. Drool

To paraphrase Ben Graham: In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.



Don't forget the company has a debt of ksh.23bn in its books
Yes, with assets of 67bn+ (which includes cash and near cash) so debt is less than 33% of the total assets.


Hopefully those assets are really worth 67bn



Actually they are worth more. Centum is conservative in its valuations. Realized price upon sale is always higher.


They are worth less.
Remember they had to value down their holding in Isuzu Motors.
Same as the land which they hold is valued more e.g an acre at Two Rivers at ksh.450mn really?


That’s one aspect.
Look at it this way:

- The entire real estate portfolio, the carrying value in HY19 was 33.4B, which was higher that the 30.5B for FY18.

- Private equity (Almasi, Sidian, Isuzu, Nabo, etc.), the carrying value for HY19 was 23.5B, lower than the 25.3B for FY18. Here, the valuation may include a discounted multiple. e.g. For Almasi is 6.94x and for Sidian its 1.16x. When the sale is made, the price obtained will be higher than the value previously assigned.

- Marketable securities had the HY19 value being 4.7B, less than the 5.3B for FY18. Here the value is taken at market price, but in total forms a small portion of Centum's entire portfolio.

- Development (Amu, Akiira and co.), carrying value for HY19 was 5.3B, higher than the 5B for FY18

VituVingiSana
#58 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 4:52:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,584
Location: Nairobi
Vitafoam sets up Sh10 million Two Rivers showroom
https://www.businessdail...13332-uy9n28/index.html
>>> Centum needs all the help it can get at Two Rivers!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Mastermind
#59 Posted : Tuesday, June 04, 2019 9:33:20 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/25/2012
Posts: 1,618
Location: Langley
Fy2019 announcement date- June 12th, 2019.
If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Tuesday, June 04, 2019 5:45:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,584
Location: Nairobi
Mastermind wrote:
Fy2019 announcement date- June 12th, 2019.

Ndani! Though Centum is a long-term holding. The weak real estate market must hurt.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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