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It's Darkest before the Dawn… and It's Been Pretty Dark
mufasa
#1 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2019 9:27:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 166
Thomas Fuller is often credited with popularizing the saying, "It is always darkest just before the Day dawneth." a message we hold dear because it’s about not giving up hope.
The KE economy has been “growing”, each quarter we are told of above 5% growth margins. Yet my understanding is that the stock market as one of the key performance indicators of the economy has continued to tank year after year since the NSE20 hit a high of 5,500 in March 2015.
The current government has invested heavily on mega infrastructure but the pay-off doesn’t look like it will be anytime soon, as a matter of fact companies are closing, and job losses are in their thousands. To the best of my knowledge the other KPI’s of the economy are not performing as well as the GDP and the CBK advisories. The Manufacturing and services sector are bleeding, consumer price index is not favourable.

Since stock market performance depends on economic performance, the critical question is when will the sun rise on the economy? Will it be 2020, 2022, or even later?
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
Fyatu
#2 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2019 10:59:32 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,632
Location: Nakuru
mufasa wrote:
Thomas Fuller is often credited with popularizing the saying, "It is always darkest just before the Day dawneth." a message we hold dear because it’s about not giving up hope.
The KE economy has been “growing”, each quarter we are told of above 5% growth margins. Yet my understanding is that the stock market as one of the key performance indicators of the economy has continued to tank year after year since the NSE20 hit a high of 5,500 in March 2015.
The current government has invested heavily on mega infrastructure but the pay-off doesn’t look like it will be anytime soon, as a matter of fact companies are closing, and job losses are in their thousands. To the best of my knowledge the other KPI’s of the economy are not performing as well as the GDP and the CBK advisories. The Manufacturing and services sector are bleeding, consumer price index is not favourable.

Since stock market performance depends on economic performance, the critical question is when will the sun rise on the economy? Will it be 2020, 2022, or even later?


Fatigue is real
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Extraterrestrial
#3 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2019 11:07:51 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2018
Posts: 86
Location: Mars
Unless Chupilee, NSE20 has over halved from 5,500 points during the initial euphoria to under 2,500 currently.
mufasa
#4 Posted : Friday, October 18, 2019 6:32:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 166
Fyatu wrote:


Fatigue is real



Yes, this yoke is heavy.

However there are few positives I can derive out of it. one, is the fact that I have been forced to save since I can't sell out with the current losses.

So, in a way, I have come to learn how to average down and wait for the good times.

I have also controlled my spending. The economy has not been good for the common man and therefore most of the alternative investments to NSE have also been sinking holes.

Lastly, I learnt of an American terminology called "buyers market". I think we are currently in that market. Question is when is the sellers market arriving?
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
wukan
#5 Posted : Friday, October 18, 2019 10:12:27 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,228
Time is not on Uhuru's side next 34 months will be interesting to watch. He is quickly running out of runway either take off or crash out Moi style. Interesting that NSE was at 2428 around sept 1999.

Quote:
A chief executive friend in financial services called the other day to discuss the state of the nation. He observed that Kenya in 2019 looks very much like 1999 at the height of the “Kenya in economic ICU” moment of the time. He then made the point that today we are many more Kenyans — especially young people — so any deepening crisis is a social tinderbox.

By the middle of 2002, Kenya had completed its first ever Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Elections were due shortly, and yote yawezekana (it is possible) was the tune of the day.
https://www.businessdail...5242-xefuekz/index.html
mufasa
#6 Posted : Friday, October 18, 2019 12:02:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 166
wukan wrote:
Time is not on Uhuru's side next 34 months will be interesting to watch. He is quickly running out of runway either take off or crash out Moi style. Interesting that NSE was at 2428 around sept 1999.

Quote:
A chief executive friend in financial services called the other day to discuss the state of the nation. He observed that Kenya in 2019 looks very much like 1999 at the height of the “Kenya in economic ICU” moment of the time. He then made the point that today we are many more Kenyans — especially young people — so any deepening crisis is a social tinderbox.

By the middle of 2002, Kenya had completed its first ever Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Elections were due shortly, and yote yawezekana (it is possible) was the tune of the day.
https://www.businessdail...5242-xefuekz/index.html



This writer is on point, we must stop this grand infrastructure madness and put in place policies and measures that allow for sobriety.
You can't have China coming to do a feasibility study on a project that it's going to implement - its ludicrous.

My strategy moving forward is on bluechip companies that have sound governance structures in place and little or no GoK interference. e.g. EABL, StanChart, not sure if there is another one.
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
muandiwambeu
#7 Posted : Monday, October 21, 2019 10:27:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,161
mufasa wrote:
wukan wrote:
Time is not on Uhuru's side next 34 months will be interesting to watch. He is quickly running out of runway either take off or crash out Moi style. Interesting that NSE was at 2428 around sept 1999.

Quote:
A chief executive friend in financial services called the other day to discuss the state of the nation. He observed that Kenya in 2019 looks very much like 1999 at the height of the “Kenya in economic ICU” moment of the time. He then made the point that today we are many more Kenyans — especially young people — so any deepening crisis is a social tinderbox.

By the middle of 2002, Kenya had completed its first ever Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Elections were due shortly, and yote yawezekana (it is possible) was the tune of the day.
https://www.businessdail...5242-xefuekz/index.html



This writer is on point, we must stop this grand infrastructure madness and put in place policies and measures that allow for sobriety.
You can't have China coming to do a feasibility study on a project that it's going to implement - its ludicrous.

My strategy moving forward is on bluechip companies that have sound governance structures in place and little or no GoK interference. e.g. EABL, StanChart, not sure if there is another one.

Oligarchs doing the shafting business well, I would like to see a listing of the richest dudes in Kenya so far.i must feature at top 1000 after my Gavana only. Yote ayatawai wezekana hii Kenya as long as any of you who can read this text and understand is still alive! Accept and find a landing place for yourself otherwise, keep quite and take it easy. The genius who wrote the current script went comatose before prescribing an antidote for it.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
Fyatu
#8 Posted : Wednesday, October 30, 2019 11:00:31 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,632
Location: Nakuru
mufasa wrote:
Thomas Fuller is often credited with popularizing the saying, "It is always darkest just before the Day dawneth." a message we hold dear because it’s about not giving up hope.
The KE economy has been “growing”, each quarter we are told of above 5% growth margins. Yet my understanding is that the stock market as one of the key performance indicators of the economy has continued to tank year after year since the NSE20 hit a high of 5,500 in March 2015.
The current government has invested heavily on mega infrastructure but the pay-off doesn’t look like it will be anytime soon, as a matter of fact companies are closing, and job losses are in their thousands. To the best of my knowledge the other KPI’s of the economy are not performing as well as the GDP and the CBK advisories. The Manufacturing and services sector are bleeding, consumer price index is not favourable.

Since stock market performance depends on economic performance, the critical question is when will the sun rise on the economy? Will it be 2020, 2022, or even later?



Looks like dawn is here as far as NSE is concerned.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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