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slick
#5341 Posted : Monday, March 16, 2020 11:06:30 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
[quote=lochaz-index]Shocking data from China. Global recession full steam ahead. Survivors will be few and far in between.
Quote:
Chinese Retail Sales crashed 20.5% YTD YoY - the first annual drop on record and four times worse than the -4.0% expectation

Chinese Industrial Production collapsed 13.5% YTD YOY - the first annual drop on record and more than four times worse than the -3.0% expectation

Fixed Asset Investment plunged 24.5% YTD YoY - the first annual drop and more than twelve times worse than the expected 2.% contraction.

And to go with those stunning numbers, Property Investment puked 16.3% YTD YoY and the Surveyed Jobless Rate exploded to a record 6.2%.

https://www.zerohedge.co...massively-more-expected[/quote]

Its obvious that Chinese economic numbers are far worse than they advertise.They always cook numbers like GDP,employment,inflation,Covid-19 infection and death rates etc.Not that Western countries dont do the same.US also notorious in this regard.If a guy has 3 part time jobs ie. a nurse during morning hours,a waiter during afternoon hours,bar tender in evening hours the US Bureau of Labour Statistics counts that as 3 jobs.If you have not been looking for a job for 6 months,they dont count you as unemployed.With such shenanigans,they can claim unemployment rate is less than 4%.For inflation,they dont count food,fuel and rent as part of the inflation bread basket in the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) thus can brag that inflation is just about 2% (while in reality inflation is over 5% if you include food and energy).Even corrupt Kenya has food and fuel in its inflation basket.Such "Low" inflation figures gives the Fed cover to lower rates and print more money claiming there is no inflation.US GDP growth is normally between 2-2.5% Year over Year but US deficits are about 4-5% YoY so practically all US growth is debt financed mostly by Fed money printing.US debt grows faster than GDP hence the debt to GDP ratio of 105%.Total nonsense.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
lochaz-index
#5342 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 5:38:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
Shocking data from China. Global recession full steam ahead. Survivors will be few and far in between.
Quote:
Chinese Retail Sales crashed 20.5% YTD YoY - the first annual drop on record and four times worse than the -4.0% expectation

Chinese Industrial Production collapsed 13.5% YTD YOY - the first annual drop on record and more than four times worse than the -3.0% expectation

Fixed Asset Investment plunged 24.5% YTD YoY - the first annual drop and more than twelve times worse than the expected 2.% contraction.

And to go with those stunning numbers, Property Investment puked 16.3% YTD YoY and the Surveyed Jobless Rate exploded to a record 6.2%.

https://www.zerohedge.co...massively-more-expected


Quote:
We are downgrading our forecast for China’s 2020 growth. Our previous forecast for the year was growth at 5.2%. Our new forecast is 1.4%. That includes a 11% contraction in the first quater.”

Quote:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley economists joined the rush on Wall Street to declare that the coronavirus has triggered a global recession, with the debate now focusing on its likely length and depth.

A day after President Donald Trump conceded the U.S. slump alone is set to be “a bad one,” economists threw away their forecasts that the world could avoid tumbling into recession for the first time since the financial crisis.

https://www.bloomberg.co...ase-case?srnd=markets-vp
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mnandii
#5343 Posted : Sunday, March 22, 2020 7:07:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
DJIA


Expecting a surprising relief rally in the DOW soon. Target 22,000 to 23,000. It should be fully erased thereafter.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#5344 Posted : Sunday, March 22, 2020 7:11:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Shocking data from China. Global recession full steam ahead. Survivors will be few and far in between.
Quote:
Chinese Retail Sales crashed 20.5% YTD YoY - the first annual drop on record and four times worse than the -4.0% expectation

Chinese Industrial Production collapsed 13.5% YTD YOY - the first annual drop on record and more than four times worse than the -3.0% expectation

Fixed Asset Investment plunged 24.5% YTD YoY - the first annual drop and more than twelve times worse than the expected 2.% contraction.

And to go with those stunning numbers, Property Investment puked 16.3% YTD YoY and the Surveyed Jobless Rate exploded to a record 6.2%.

https://www.zerohedge.co...massively-more-expected


Quote:
We are downgrading our forecast for China’s 2020 growth. Our previous forecast for the year was growth at 5.2%. Our new forecast is 1.4%. That includes a 11% contraction in the first quater.”

Quote:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley economists joined the rush on Wall Street to declare that the coronavirus has triggered a global recession, with the debate now focusing on its likely length and depth.

A day after President Donald Trump conceded the U.S. slump alone is set to be “a bad one,” economists threw away their forecasts that the world could avoid tumbling into recession for the first time since the financial crisis.

https://www.bloomberg.co...se-case?srnd=markets-vp


China is going to surprise these fundamentalists. China has bottomed. The corvid virus outbreak is a perfect socionomic indication that the worst is past. Same with Hong Kong. The riots signalled a bottom in their markets. Expect rallies in their markets ahead
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
lochaz-index
#5345 Posted : Monday, March 23, 2020 8:48:07 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Shocking data from China. Global recession full steam ahead. Survivors will be few and far in between.
Quote:
Chinese Retail Sales crashed 20.5% YTD YoY - the first annual drop on record and four times worse than the -4.0% expectation

Chinese Industrial Production collapsed 13.5% YTD YOY - the first annual drop on record and more than four times worse than the -3.0% expectation

Fixed Asset Investment plunged 24.5% YTD YoY - the first annual drop and more than twelve times worse than the expected 2.% contraction.

And to go with those stunning numbers, Property Investment puked 16.3% YTD YoY and the Surveyed Jobless Rate exploded to a record 6.2%.

https://www.zerohedge.co...massively-more-expected


Quote:
We are downgrading our forecast for China’s 2020 growth. Our previous forecast for the year was growth at 5.2%. Our new forecast is 1.4%. That includes a 11% contraction in the first quater.”

Quote:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley economists joined the rush on Wall Street to declare that the coronavirus has triggered a global recession, with the debate now focusing on its likely length and depth.

A day after President Donald Trump conceded the U.S. slump alone is set to be “a bad one,” economists threw away their forecasts that the world could avoid tumbling into recession for the first time since the financial crisis.

https://www.bloomberg.co...se-case?srnd=markets-vp


China is going to surprise these fundamentalists. China has bottomed. The corvid virus outbreak is a perfect socionomic indication that the worst is past. Same with Hong Kong. The riots signalled a bottom in their markets. Expect rallies in their markets ahead

Agreed. Currently scouting for positions there.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mnandii
#5346 Posted : Thursday, March 26, 2020 10:01:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
mnandii wrote:
DJIA


Expecting a surprising relief rally in the DOW soon. Target 22,000 to 23,000. It should be fully erased thereafter.


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#5347 Posted : Thursday, March 26, 2020 10:04:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
mnandii wrote:
DJIA


Expecting a surprising relief rally in the DOW soon. Target 22,000 to 23,000. It should be fully erased thereafter.


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#5348 Posted : Thursday, March 26, 2020 10:06:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249


Fundamentalists are late to the party, as always. I posted on a bull run to the DOW on Sunday, we now have our rally which is likely completing before the DOW resumes its downward trajectory to levels below 18,000. Fundies are claiming the rally is as a result of the agreed fiscal stimulus! Alas! After, the rally...
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
VituVingiSana
#5349 Posted : Thursday, March 26, 2020 11:45:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,205
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:


Fundamentalists are late to the party, as always. I posted on a bull run to the DOW on Sunday, we now have our rally which is likely completing before the DOW resumes its downward trajectory to levels below 18,000. Fundies are claiming the rally is as a result of the agreed fiscal stimulus! Alas! After, the rally...

I do not know where you get your definition of fundamentalists Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Lakini, it is all good. smile

The mantra I like is “Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.” by Warren Buffett
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mnandii
#5350 Posted : Friday, March 27, 2020 8:13:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Fundamentalists are late to the party, as always. I posted on a bull run to the DOW on Sunday, we now have our rally which is likely completing before the DOW resumes its downward trajectory to levels below 18,000. Fundies are claiming the rally is as a result of the agreed fiscal stimulus! Alas! After, the rally...

I do not know where you get your definition of fundamentalists Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Lakini, it is all good. smile

The mantra I like is “Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.” by Warren Buffett

smile
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#5351 Posted : Friday, March 27, 2020 8:16:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
They are confused. Can't tell whether DOW is back to bull market or not.

Next week they'll be fully on the bullmarket badwagon.

Quote:
The Dow’s 21% surge in 3 days puts it back in a bull market — here’s why the coronavirus crisis makes it feel utterly bearish

The bull market is dead, long live the bull market.

By some accounts, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +6.37% just entered a new bull-market phase, killing the 11-day-old bear market. To some market participants that notion may, indeed, feel like a lot of bull.

It may be somewhat disingenuous to refer to the recent moves of a frenetic market as genuinely bullish, coming after the carnage that has been wrought at least partly by the coronavirus outbreak that appears certain to ravage the U.S. economy over the next several weeks and months — at least temporarily.




Marketwatch Article
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Monk
#5352 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 7:47:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 184
https://kenyanwallstreet...compulsory-acquisition/

Wasn't this threshold reduced to 50% last year? What was the purpose for that move, and why reverse it now?
slick
#5353 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 8:24:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
mnandii wrote:
They are confused. Can't tell whether DOW is back to bull market or not.

Next week they'll be fully on the bullmarket badwagon.

Quote:
The Dow’s 21% surge in 3 days puts it back in a bull market — here’s why the coronavirus crisis makes it feel utterly bearish

The bull market is dead, long live the bull market.

By some accounts, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +6.37% just entered a new bull-market phase, killing the 11-day-old bear market. To some market participants that notion may, indeed, feel like a lot of bull.

It may be somewhat disingenuous to refer to the recent moves of a frenetic market as genuinely bullish, coming after the carnage that has been wrought at least partly by the coronavirus outbreak that appears certain to ravage the U.S. economy over the next several weeks and months — at least temporarily.




Marketwatch Article


Feels like a dead cat bounce to me.US Covid-19 case count is yet to peak and in the next few weeks the United States may get overwhelmed like Italy then the stock market may really sell off.

Part of the bullish move in US stocks is because of the Fed "buying" large cap stocks.Through their recently launched program Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) the Fed is taking the large cap US stocks as collateral for repo loans to wall street primary dealer banks and hedge funds.Considering these loans are being rolled over when they mature,the Fed is keeping these stocks on their balance sheet thus essentially buying these stocks.Much of the rally in Wall Street in recent days has been attributed to this Fed intervention in the stock market.There is talk that Fed should outright buy US stocks.Its a banana republic style intervention nonetheless equities are rising due to this
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
lochaz-index
#5354 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 12:45:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:


Fundamentalists are late to the party, as always. I posted on a bull run to the DOW on Sunday, we now have our rally which is likely completing before the DOW resumes its downward trajectory to levels below 18,000. Fundies are claiming the rally is as a result of the agreed fiscal stimulus! Alas! After, the rally...

One more brutal downleg to shake out all the weak hands and find a solid bottom. I expect the volatility to subside greatly after what has been a month of topsy-turvy market swings/whipsaw action. Chinese PMI data is very encouraging but weak economies will have it rough for a long time to come
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
slick
#5355 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 2:15:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Fundamentalists are late to the party, as always. I posted on a bull run to the DOW on Sunday, we now have our rally which is likely completing before the DOW resumes its downward trajectory to levels below 18,000. Fundies are claiming the rally is as a result of the agreed fiscal stimulus! Alas! After, the rally...

One more brutal downleg to shake out all the weak hands and find a solid bottom. I expect the volatility to subside greatly after what has been a month of topsy-turvy market swings/whipsaw action. Chinese PMI data is very encouraging but weak economies will have it rough for a long time to come


I cant trust the Chinese PMI number.Beijing is a serial liar and will go to any length to create an impression of a rebounded economy.Even though things in China arent as thick like in February,its not as rosy as they claim.

This week has lots of US data coming out like the private ADP payroll number to be released today,weekly unemployment claims figures tomorrow and the all important non farm payroll number on Friday.Weekly unemployment claims figure for last week was a record breaking 3.3 million people nearly 5 times as much as the worst record of nearly 700,000 during the GFC.Analysts expect and even worse number this Thursday.Fundamentally,potentially disastrous job numbers to be released in the next 3 days may precipitate a market sell off but if you have been in the Wall Street game long enough,markets could surge upwards in the hope that Fed may inject more liquidity to offset the carnage of job losses.That actually happened last Thursday where the dismal unemployment claims numbers jolted the stock market upwards in anticipation for more Fed easy money.I think we shall also be getting the US manufacturing and services PMI numbers this week

Also April marks the month where major S&P firms release their Q1 2020 earnings.It could be a nightmare though at least in January and early February companies were doing relatively ok.Q2 earnings are being projected to be a total disaster.Also some forecasts of economic contraction of upto 34% are being heralded by the Wall Street banks for Q2.Thats an even worse figure than in the depths of the late 1920s and 1930s Great Depression.



I expect a bumpy road ahead.Possibly more selling but with equally powerful rebounds as the Fed throws more trillions into salvaging a dire situation.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
lochaz-index
#5356 Posted : Thursday, April 02, 2020 3:48:43 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Fundamentalists are late to the party, as always. I posted on a bull run to the DOW on Sunday, we now have our rally which is likely completing before the DOW resumes its downward trajectory to levels below 18,000. Fundies are claiming the rally is as a result of the agreed fiscal stimulus! Alas! After, the rally...

One more brutal downleg to shake out all the weak hands and find a solid bottom. I expect the volatility to subside greatly after what has been a month of topsy-turvy market swings/whipsaw action. Chinese PMI data is very encouraging but weak economies will have it rough for a long time to come

US weekly jobless claims comes in at 6.6 million, more than doubling last week's 3.28 million. Overall unemployment level headed to above 10% from all time lows of 3.5%. If the trend persists, the numbers may soon be challenging the great depression levels. All the financial engineering (QE, repo action, crosscurrency swap lines etc) done isn't going to help. The nationalistic tone of many countries points to a massive collapse in trade not forgetting the supply and demand shocks already exacted by the pandemic. A relief payment of $1200 per citizen is a drop in the ocean considering what is currently unraveling.
Quote:
"U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Leap to Record 6.65 Million"

https://www.investing.co...cord-665-million-2128930
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5357 Posted : Friday, April 03, 2020 3:42:33 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Fundamentalists are late to the party, as always. I posted on a bull run to the DOW on Sunday, we now have our rally which is likely completing before the DOW resumes its downward trajectory to levels below 18,000. Fundies are claiming the rally is as a result of the agreed fiscal stimulus! Alas! After, the rally...

One more brutal downleg to shake out all the weak hands and find a solid bottom. I expect the volatility to subside greatly after what has been a month of topsy-turvy market swings/whipsaw action. Chinese PMI data is very encouraging but weak economies will have it rough for a long time to come

US weekly jobless claims comes in at 6.6 million, more than doubling last week's 3.28 million. Overall unemployment level headed to above 10% from all time lows of 3.5%. If the trend persists, the numbers may soon be challenging the great depression levels. All the financial engineering (QE, repo action, crosscurrency swap lines etc) done isn't going to help. The nationalistic tone of many countries points to a massive collapse in trade not forgetting the supply and demand shocks already exacted by the pandemic. A relief payment of $1200 per citizen is a drop in the ocean considering what is currently unraveling.
Quote:
"U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Leap to Record 6.65 Million"

https://www.investing.co...ord-665-million-2128930

Some unbelievable numbers coming from Europe. Italy services PMI comes in at 17%(lower than Greece during its debt crisis), Eurozone area at 26% and US unemployment is already at 4.4% from a low of 3.5%. The economic savagery of this pandemic is brutal and extremely fast. Will Schengen agreement and the EU survive this crisis on top of the myriad of problems they've had in recent years?
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mnandii
#5358 Posted : Wednesday, April 08, 2020 8:14:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249


DJIA. The bear rally is continuing. One more upward move to about 25,000 then a major drop to below the previous low of 18,000. Those who claim to buy value will regret!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#5359 Posted : Monday, April 13, 2020 12:37:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249


DJIA. Wave (C) of [B] likely over at 24,011. A move below 22,000 will be confirmation of this. If so then expect DJIA to slide rapidly down toward 18,000. Alt. if DJIA rises above 24,000 then our initial upward target of 25,000 will be resistance from whence the index will fall.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
cyruskulei
#5360 Posted : Tuesday, April 14, 2020 10:29:32 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/9/2010
Posts: 269
Location: kenya
For those of us who dont have live nse stream can us this link:
https://www.nse.co.ke/nse-25-index.html
Work hard at your job and you can make a living. Work hard on yourself and you can make a fortune.

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