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175 Pages«<172173174175>
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
slick
#3461 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2020 2:02:14 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 252
mnandii wrote:
Hehehehe

My people on the NSE, are you seeing what Bitcoin is doing?



Kenyan markets are too slow and one has to wait a looooong time to make decent gains.

Offshore markets especially cryptos and US stock market are highly volatile and make big moves and if you understand the dynamics and shenanigans of Wall Street and make short term leveraged trades,one can make a lot of $$$$$$ Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly in a very short time.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#3462 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2020 2:29:08 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 252
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Hehehehe

My people on the NSE, are you seeing what Bitcoin is doing?



Kenyan markets are too slow and one has to wait a looooong time to make decent gains.

Offshore markets especially cryptos and US stock market are highly volatile and make big moves and if you understand the dynamics and shenanigans of Wall Street and make short term leveraged trades,one can make a lot of $$$$$$ Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly in a very short time.


Though Kenyan markets are more honest with little leverage,no central bank money printing schemes and no theatrics which is good for a healthy market.Western markets are an entirely different beast altogether with leveraged derivative instruments,central banks money printing pumping up markets with cheap money and lots of drama with highly competitive Wall Street banks and hedge funds feverishly competing against each other and swindling retail investors all the time thus causing epic bubbles that crash so violently as recently witnessed in March 2020 and during the 1929 crash,dotcom and real estate crash.Once one understands the madness and melodrama of Wall Street one can make lots of money if you know how the Wall Street game is played.

One has to watch the movies "The Big Short","Margin Call","The Wolf of Wall Street" and Michael Douglas "Wall Street" movie sequels to know what Wall Street is really about where bulls make money,bears make money and pigs (retail investors) get slaughtered.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#3463 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2020 3:28:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 252
mnandii wrote:
Defaults already?! So soon!

Schemes shouldn’t defer interest payments

Quote:
It is granted that desperate times call for desperate measures. Clearly, the coronavirus pandemic is causing the government to look for money even from the most unexpected corners.

Who would imagine that the government would as a survival tactic contemplate deferring payment of interest on government paper? Indeed, a deferral of payments of maturing Treasury bills and bonds as is being contemplated amounts to declaration of a default on domestic debt.

Have we thought of the wave of uncertainty that would ensue if we jeopardised the risk- free status of government paper?


link


Its better and more honest for Kenyan government to default on treasuries than have Opus Dei create new KES and buy government bonds and finance interest payments like in the devloped world.What madness that in the first world central banks are buying their own government bonds,corporate bonds and even stocks with newly printed currency.In the Eurozone and Japan,its governments getting paid to issue negative yielding bonds instead of the normal reverse ie governments pay interest on bonds they issue which is ridiculous but nearly 1/3 of the global government bond market operates this way

Look at the craziness in Germany.







Kenyan government would love issuing negative yielding bonds where investors pay GoK for the privilege of buying their bonds.Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
mnandii
#3464 Posted : Saturday, May 16, 2020 9:22:32 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3465 Posted : Saturday, May 16, 2020 6:29:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3466 Posted : Saturday, May 16, 2020 6:34:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Hehehehe

My people on the NSE, are you seeing what Bitcoin is doing?



Kenyan markets are too slow and one has to wait a looooong time to make decent gains.

Offshore markets especially cryptos and US stock market are highly volatile and make big moves and if you understand the dynamics and shenanigans of Wall Street and make short term leveraged trades,one can make a lot of $$$$$$ Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly in a very short time.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
VituVingiSana
#3467 Posted : Sunday, May 17, 2020 3:32:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,969
Location: Nairobi
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Hehehehe

My people on the NSE, are you seeing what Bitcoin is doing?



Kenyan markets are too slow and one has to wait a looooong time to make decent gains.

Offshore markets especially cryptos and US stock market are highly volatile and make big moves and if you understand the dynamics and shenanigans of Wall Street and make short term leveraged trades,one can make a lot of $$$$$$ Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly in a very short time.
Can't these trades go either way?
Lose $$$$$$ in a very short time.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
babashuge
#3468 Posted : Monday, May 18, 2020 8:35:16 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/4/2019
Posts: 34
Location: Nairobi
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Hehehehe

My people on the NSE, are you seeing what Bitcoin is doing?



Kenyan markets are too slow and one has to wait a looooong time to make decent gains.

Offshore markets especially cryptos and US stock market are highly volatile and make big moves and if you understand the dynamics and shenanigans of Wall Street and make short term leveraged trades,one can make a lot of $$$$$$ Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly in a very short time.


Trading in not for the weak or those busy with other things, plus i don't think my heart can handle such volatility over the long run, let enjoy the African marathon pace(INEOS) for years instead of short extreme sprints...
slick
#3469 Posted : Monday, May 18, 2020 9:11:49 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 252
VituVingiSana wrote:
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Hehehehe

My people on the NSE, are you seeing what Bitcoin is doing?



Kenyan markets are too slow and one has to wait a looooong time to make decent gains.

Offshore markets especially cryptos and US stock market are highly volatile and make big moves and if you understand the dynamics and shenanigans of Wall Street and make short term leveraged trades,one can make a lot of $$$$$$ Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly in a very short time.
Can't these trades go either way?
Lose $$$$$$ in a very short time.


Yes.The trades can also go against you very quickly.The trick is to stay disciplined.Take small position sizes,respect your stop loss and profit targets and long term you shall be profitable.Problem is that most beginner traders have the illusion of making a quick buck and take big position sizes and hold onto losing trades waiting for a turnaround.As they say 90% of traders lose 90% of their trading account in first 90 days.They go all in on one trade or even 30-50% on a trade and if they lose on this they blow up their account.Never take a trade position that's above 5% of your overall trading portfolio.If a trade hits your stop loss get out no matter what and lets say make a rule that if a trade goes down 20% get out.Sure some hit your stop then bounce back and if you keep refusing to get out of your stop loss position you will lose large in one trade.Losses are part of the cost of business of trading.

The current volatile US markets are offering superb opportunities to make profits.NSE is kind of dead right now and is too slow to make any decent gains in the short term.

Anyway only 10% of traders are consistently profitable and its not a game for the faint hearted but if you understand the Wall Street game of pump and dumps and market manipulation plus stay disciplined one can make a good living
Strategy is do both investing in the long term and short term trades for daily income.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
mnandii
#3470 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 6:49:17 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087


Diamond Trust Bank appears set to fall much further. Sub 50.00s on the cards.
If however it rises above 89.10 then I will re-assess. This however is a remote possibility
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3471 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 6:58:43 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
VituVingiSana wrote:
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Hehehehe

My people on the NSE, are you seeing what Bitcoin is doing?



Kenyan markets are too slow and one has to wait a looooong time to make decent gains.

Offshore markets especially cryptos and US stock market are highly volatile and make big moves and if you understand the dynamics and shenanigans of Wall Street and make short term leveraged trades,one can make a lot of $$$$$$ Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly in a very short time.
Can't these trades go either way?
Lose $$$$$$ in a very short time.

Is why you need Stop Losses. If the trade goes against you to a certain level then you know you may need to re-assess your forecast and adjust accordingly. This is where Elliott waves trumps other methods of analyses. Coz it gives you a target which if met then it means that your preferred Elliott count may not be the one.

E.g. One rule of Elliott Waves is that a second wave must not retrace more than 100% of the first wave. If that happens then your count requires a re-assessment.


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3472 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 7:06:24 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087


BAT broke below our channel. Suggestive of a third wave DOWN. Still has a long way DOWN to go.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3473 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 7:13:18 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
EQUITY BANK
The recent rally has almost been wholly retraced. Targets below 30.00

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3474 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 7:16:41 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK

Sharp drop below 174. Should fall much further DOWN.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3475 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 7:20:19 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
EAST AFRICAN BREWERIES LTD (EABL)
Wave (iii) DOWN in progress. Should fall much further.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
lochaz-index
#3476 Posted : Wednesday, May 20, 2020 8:48:26 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,113
mnandii wrote:


The NSE 20 Share Index should resume its FALL anytime now. The next target is 1720s.

May has seen sideways action so far for most markets. Weakness however is apparent in many of them. Like the NSE20 they will likely test the March lows. Eabl has already put out a profit warning for FY2020 and we are only in Q2 while banks are reluctant to release Q1 results...ridiculous prices coming up.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#3477 Posted : Wednesday, May 20, 2020 10:51:39 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,113
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


The NSE 20 Share Index should resume its FALL anytime now. The next target is 1720s.

May has seen sideways action so far for most markets. Weakness however is apparent in many of them. Like the NSE20 they will likely test the March lows. Eabl has already put out a profit warning for FY2020 and we are only in Q2 while banks are reluctant to release Q1 results...ridiculous prices coming up.

So far stanbic is down 35% while NCBA is down 24% for Q1. Q2 will be a horror show. Given that the ratings downgrade of KE banks will continue on account of sovereign debt holdings (as risk of default increases) and increasing NPLs, banks will be caught in a tight spot where any further lending (to private or public sector) will have an assymetric risk:return ratio that isn't worth pursuing. A potential cash is king scenario (liquidity preference) for lenders with perhaps a spillover to the stock market thereby creating a floor.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Ericsson
#3478 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2020 9:14:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,393
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:


Diamond Trust Bank appears set to fall much further. Sub 50.00s on the cards.
If however it rises above 89.10 then I will re-assess. This however is a remote possibility


Yesterday closed at 71
mnandii
#3479 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2020 6:31:43 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you.

So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ)



From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern.

In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets]

If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly You have made @Obiero's weekend!
I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months.
"Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped.
Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3480 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2020 6:45:49 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087


I believe my bullish forecast on KQ has worked wonders. And most people are quite surprised by the recent rise despite KQ posting major losses.

All we had to do to catch a bottom was to count ABC! See, quite easy.

Now the small Downward retracement is making people jittery, some will even sell at a loss. I say, stay PUT. See how strong the turn UP for KQ was? I expect it to rise further UP.
When (If) it moves above Ksh 5.50 then our bullishness will even be more firmed. KQ will likely defy the rest of the market and rise above Ksh 13.00.

On the other hand, a disclaimer is necessary. If KQ falls below Ksh 0.829 then we'll have to abandon this forecast. THIS however, judging by the structure of the recent rise and the Elliott Wave counts, is a remote possibility.

CONCLUSION: Do not sell KQ. Buy more.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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