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11 Pages«<891011>
Kenya Power HY 2019
Elephant Man
#181 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 7:49:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/24/2008
Posts: 88
Does KPLC have competition?
Ericsson
#182 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 7:53:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,531
Location: NAIROBI
Elephant Man wrote:
Does KPLC have competition?

Yes
Solar
Fyatu
#183 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 8:05:58 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,716
Location: Nakuru
The only way back to profitability for this "rotten bluechip" is pre-paid meters. In my locality huku rural, Kenya power has not read meters since March 2020. They are hemorrhaging money everywhere. When is the last time you saw Kenya power staff disconnecting defaulting customers? Most wananchi are using stima nywee without paying a dime some for even 7 months and over. During Kibaki days, i recall branch managers supervising meter reading and disconnections personally. Siku hizi za Jubilee ni kukula nyama na phombe tu for branch managers waiting to be bribed by defaulting customers.

Buy Umeme, a lean and well managed company that pays dividend(>10%).


This one(Kenya power) is headed the KQ bailout route. Run for your life.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
littledove
#184 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 8:39:57 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 786
Location: sky
Ericsson wrote:
Elephant Man wrote:
Does KPLC have competition?

Yes
Solar

true, i had a small real estate project 3 years ago and i decided i will use solar for all security light which has worked very well for those years, next project i want a parallel for electricity and solar where all bulbs will be solar and electricity will cater for sockets or if im convinced i can get a very reliable solar for heavy duty purporse like heating and ironing then i do away with electricity
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
kmucheke
#185 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 10:32:27 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 34
Fyatu wrote:
The only way back to profitability for this "rotten bluechip" is pre-paid meters. In my locality huku rural, Kenya power has not read meters since March 2020. They are hemorrhaging money everywhere. When is the last time you saw Kenya power staff disconnecting defaulting customers? Most wananchi are using stima nywee without paying a dime some for even 7 months and over. During Kibaki days, i recall branch managers supervising meter reading and disconnections personally. Siku hizi za Jubilee ni kukula nyama na phombe tu for branch managers waiting to be bribed by defaulting customers.

Buy Umeme, a lean and well managed company that pays dividend(>10%).


This one(Kenya power) is headed the KQ bailout route. Run for your life.


Umeme is a concessionaire of UEDCL (Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Ltd) assets. The current contract is set to expire in 2025 (2005-2025). They are currently in talks for another contract of 20 years which will allow them to borrow more money for expansion. In the past H.E and parliament have threatened to terminate the contract due to poor service delivery. NSSF ug is the largest institutional investor (23.2% )so this might work in their favour during contract negotiations.

Just like KP they suffer from power theft and prepaid meters have not solved this.

Fyatu
#186 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 10:47:33 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,716
Location: Nakuru
kmucheke wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
The only way back to profitability for this "rotten bluechip" is pre-paid meters. In my locality huku rural, Kenya power has not read meters since March 2020. They are hemorrhaging money everywhere. When is the last time you saw Kenya power staff disconnecting defaulting customers? Most wananchi are using stima nywee without paying a dime some for even 7 months and over. During Kibaki days, i recall branch managers supervising meter reading and disconnections personally. Siku hizi za Jubilee ni kukula nyama na phombe tu for branch managers waiting to be bribed by defaulting customers.

Buy Umeme, a lean and well managed company that pays dividend(>10%).


This one(Kenya power) is headed the KQ bailout route. Run for your life.


Umeme is a concessionaire of UEDCL (Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Ltd) assets. The current contract is set to expire in 2025 (2005-2025). They are currently in talks for another contract of 20 years which will allow them to borrow more money for expansion. In the past H.E and parliament have threatened to terminate the contract due to poor service delivery. NSSF ug is the largest institutional investor (23.2% )so this might work in their favour during contract negotiations.

Just like KP they suffer from power theft and prepaid meters have not solved this.



Its a no-brainer really why dividend here(Umeme) is guaranteed. Kenya power needs a reset(prepaid meters is just one pre-requisite). Kenya power are not collecting revenues efficiently. They don't read meters and they don't disconnect defaulters.It is the poster child definition of Mali ya Umma. Run!
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
kmucheke
#187 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 11:17:17 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 34
Fyatu wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
The only way back to profitability for this "rotten bluechip" is pre-paid meters. In my locality huku rural, Kenya power has not read meters since March 2020. They are hemorrhaging money everywhere. When is the last time you saw Kenya power staff disconnecting defaulting customers? Most wananchi are using stima nywee without paying a dime some for even 7 months and over. During Kibaki days, i recall branch managers supervising meter reading and disconnections personally. Siku hizi za Jubilee ni kukula nyama na phombe tu for branch managers waiting to be bribed by defaulting customers.

Buy Umeme, a lean and well managed company that pays dividend(>10%).


This one(Kenya power) is headed the KQ bailout route. Run for your life.


Umeme is a concessionaire of UEDCL (Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Ltd) assets. The current contract is set to expire in 2025 (2005-2025). They are currently in talks for another contract of 20 years which will allow them to borrow more money for expansion. In the past H.E and parliament have threatened to terminate the contract due to poor service delivery. NSSF ug is the largest institutional investor (23.2% )so this might work in their favour during contract negotiations.

Just like KP they suffer from power theft and prepaid meters have not solved this.



Its a no-brainer really why dividend here(Umeme) is guaranteed. Kenya power needs a reset(prepaid meters is just one pre-requisite). Kenya power are not collecting revenues efficiently. They don't read meters and they don't disconnect defaulters.It is the poster child definition of Mali ya Umma. Run!


You are right, the "mali ya umma" attitude has encouraged cartels in all departments from meter reading, procurement (faulty transformers), hr etc to continue looting with impunity. The company has a power distribution monopoly but still loses a lot of money. KP is hostage to cartels within and outside the organisation. Until these are gone the company will continue being in the red and might just collapse under the mountain of debts it has accumulated.
Elephant Man
#188 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 11:42:37 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/24/2008
Posts: 88
So if it all doom and gloom for KPLC, is this not a threat to Kengen, KPLC being their largest customer?
Swenani
#189 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 12:04:38 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,135
Location: Vacuum
Elephant Man wrote:
So if it all doom and gloom for KPLC, is this not a threat to Kengen, KPLC being their largest customer?


No, it's not doom. Obiero being my role model, I'm hoping to buy more KPLC shares in the next three months anticipatinng to have 100% return.

Watch and learn
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
KaunganaDoDo
#190 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 12:20:36 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/6/2018
Posts: 244
Swenani wrote:
Elephant Man wrote:
So if it all doom and gloom for KPLC, is this not a threat to Kengen, KPLC being their largest customer?


No, it's not doom. Obiero being my role model, I'm hoping to buy more KPLC shares in the next three months anticipatinng to have 100% return.

Watch and learn


Please dont buy anymore now until 2019/20 Financials are out...you will hurt yourself
kmucheke
#191 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 12:27:37 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 34
Elephant Man wrote:
So if it all doom and gloom for KPLC, is this not a threat to Kengen, KPLC being their largest customer?


KP is assured of revenues no matter what, since it is the only power distributor. However they have massive debts that GoK has idemnified. GoK can't let them go under.

Kengen has agreements with KP which mandate it to take the power generated at agreed rates, incase KP can't pay i'm sure GoK will intervene.

Quote:
After embarking on an accelerated rural electrification
investment program, KPLC found itself in a difficult financial position. Its ability to honor ongoing payment obligations on time, continue its investment program, and
maintain the pace of rural electrification was in jeopardy,
putting into question the utility’s financial sustainability.

Link
Elephant Man
#192 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 4:12:51 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/24/2008
Posts: 88

@KaunganaDoDo..

I respect your well informed posts on KPLC/Kengen...

Don't you think all the bad news is already baked into the current price of under 2 bob? How much further can it drop in your opinion?

We would not want Swenani to hurt himselfsmile
Kusadikika
#193 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 7:09:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,666
Elephant Man wrote:

@KaunganaDoDo..

I respect your well informed posts on KPLC/Kengen...

Don't you think all the bad news is already baked into the current price of under 2 bob? How much further can it drop in your opinion?

We would not want Swenani to hurt himselfsmile


The biggest threat is dilution. A very likely scenario is where the GOK guaranteed debt cannot be repaid then GOK converts all the debt owed to it into equity. Right now there are about 1.95 billion shares of KPLC. KPLC has about 100 billion worth of debt. Suppose half that debt was converted into shares at the current price of 2 shillings a share. There would now be 27 billion shares with GOK owning about 26 billion of them. The share previously valued at 2 shillings would now be worth less than 20 cents.

Rights issue like the one Kengen issued a few years ago can also greatly dilute the stock and lower the share price.
KaunganaDoDo
#194 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 9:40:46 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/6/2018
Posts: 244
Elephant Man wrote:

@KaunganaDoDo..

I respect your well informed posts on KPLC/Kengen...

Don't you think all the bad news is already baked into the current price of under 2 bob? How much further can it drop in your opinion?

We would not want Swenani to hurt himselfsmile

Right Now its all panick because of the Cautionary Statement/ Profit warning issued. What people don't know is the extent of the Hole...Beware of the Ides of March ... Carefully exermining the beast, the soothsayer couldn't find the heart inside the beast....As we tend towards the end of the FY, it will tend towards 1.5 shillings. The Discussion ongoing are mot within the immediate impact
kenyan2019
#195 Posted : Wednesday, June 24, 2020 9:35:14 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/30/2018
Posts: 51
Kenya is set to declare wholesale power supply contracts null and void following a drop in demand in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic, setting the stage for a crisis in the electricity market that could hurt supply.

The Ministry of Energy says that it will declare force majeure on power generation contracts, which technically means that Kenya will not be bound by the existing pacts on payment of electricity from the more than 10 power producers.

Ministry moves to declare wholesale power deals null https://www.businessdail...1734-ifpgvuz/index.html via @BD_Africa
deadpoet
#196 Posted : Wednesday, June 24, 2020 10:01:23 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/27/2006
Posts: 446
kenyan2019 wrote:
Kenya is set to declare wholesale power supply contracts null and void following a drop in demand in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic, setting the stage for a crisis in the electricity market that could hurt supply.

The Ministry of Energy says that it will declare force majeure on power generation contracts, which technically means that Kenya will not be bound by the existing pacts on payment of electricity from the more than 10 power producers.

Ministry moves to declare wholesale power deals null https://www.businessdail...1734-ifpgvuz/index.html via @BD_Africa


They should just pull this move with the diesel power plant contracts that have been in place for the last 20 years. Those things make no sense.
sparkly
#197 Posted : Wednesday, June 24, 2020 12:37:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 7,791
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
kenyan2019 wrote:
Kenya is set to declare wholesale power supply contracts null and void following a drop in demand in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic, setting the stage for a crisis in the electricity market that could hurt supply.

The Ministry of Energy says that it will declare force majeure on power generation contracts, which technically means that Kenya will not be bound by the existing pacts on payment of electricity from the more than 10 power producers.

Ministry moves to declare wholesale power deals null https://www.businessdail...1734-ifpgvuz/index.html via @BD_Africa


Covid19 has been with us for 3 months months only but is being blamed for losses that started 3 years ago.
Life is short. Live passionately.
watesh
#198 Posted : Saturday, June 27, 2020 12:30:47 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 824
Location: Kenya
Rumor has it that Kenya power is struggling to pay salaries. Employees told to expect delayed salaries. Things are getting thicker..... https://twitter.com/Robe...1276790444966502400?s=20
Extraterrestrial
#199 Posted : Monday, June 29, 2020 5:16:56 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/17/2018
Posts: 145
Location: Mars
watesh wrote:
Rumor has it that Kenya power is struggling to pay salaries. Employees told to expect delayed salaries. Things are getting thicker..... https://twitter.com/Robe...276790444966502400?s=20


Salaries are paid on 26th. For the first time ever, there has been a delay of 3 days and counting. This may sound benign but it is literally unprecedented. Secondly, I have heard of "restructuring" - wait for the inevitable job cuts news.
mulla
#200 Posted : Tuesday, June 30, 2020 12:44:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 289
Extraterrestrial wrote:
watesh wrote:
Rumor has it that Kenya power is struggling to pay salaries. Employees told to expect delayed salaries. Things are getting thicker..... https://twitter.com/Robe...276790444966502400?s=20


Salaries are paid on 26th. For the first time ever, there has been a delay of 3 days and counting. This may sound benign but it is literally unprecedented. Secondly, I have heard of "restructuring" - wait for the inevitable job cuts news.


tales of a struggling economy with lowered electricity demand
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