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114 Pages«<111112113114>
Exchange Bar: Results forecast
Queen
#2241 Posted : Thursday, August 27, 2020 8:55:04 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/21/2018
Posts: 427
Location: Britain
young wrote:
Queen wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2 Actual 12.8
EQTY 14 Actual 11.9
COOP 10.2 Actual 9.6
I&M 6.9 Actual 4.5
ABSA 6.2 Actual 3.3
SCBK 6.1 Actual 5.1
DTB 5.8 Actual 4.48
NCBA 4.8 Actual 3.91
STANB 4.2 Actual 4.1
HFCK 0.042 Actual -0.296

A tragedy at ABSA.. Expect worse results in Q3 for all banks as the restructuring denies core interest income and provisions rise


Except for Coop Bank, everything else is a total disaster.


Not exactly . Some others are still manageable based on current covid situation .
Take a look further on the details like PAT, EPS etc you will realize that in addition to COOP, then KCB, EQITY, NCBA are fairly ok but on discounted price of 10% of the current price which is achievable when market correction sets in occasioned by short term taking of profits by investors .


The problem is that Covid shall be with us for a while and even pre-covid, the situation was still dire.
young
#2242 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2020 1:50:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 1,967
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Queen wrote:
young wrote:
Queen wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2 Actual 12.8
EQTY 14 Actual 11.9
COOP 10.2 Actual 9.6
I&M 6.9 Actual 4.5
ABSA 6.2 Actual 3.3
SCBK 6.1 Actual 5.1
DTB 5.8 Actual 4.48
NCBA 4.8 Actual 3.91
STANB 4.2 Actual 4.1
HFCK 0.042 Actual -0.296

A tragedy at ABSA.. Expect worse results in Q3 for all banks as the restructuring denies core interest income and provisions rise


Except for Coop Bank, everything else is a total disaster.


Not exactly . Some others are still manageable based on current covid situation .
Take a look further on the details like PAT, EPS etc you will realize that in addition to COOP, then KCB, EQITY, NCBA are fairly ok but on discounted price of 10% of the current price which is achievable when market correction sets in occasioned by short term taking of profits by investors .


The problem is that Covid shall be with us for a while and even pre-covid, the situation was still dire.


1 COVID
When vaccine is found the whole world economy will RESET and accelerate including global stock market. Latest by July 2021. We pray to be still alive then.
2020 is an abnormal year so stocks investment wise all of us are effected.
Nonetheles one has to find ways of minimising the negative impact on our portfolios and incomes , not necessarily by selling off but optimization to pick the best of the best based on our investment strategy.


2 NAIROBI BOURSE
You can ONLY survive if you develop a strategy that is profitable and you are comfortable with. You either invest for capital appreciation or income or combination of both. My strategy since 2010 has been income (dividends) .

Two things are important
- Study the company results
- Be your own teacher in stocks selection but ONLY learn from others.

Just as people are quitting (which I almost did), a few are making moderate gains periodically .

If there are no gains , a non resident foreign investor like me would have quit the bourse long time ago. I gain in dividends but I often loose in capital appreciation but on the long term I gain on both but income(dividend) is what I am hunting for. A good stock will always recover in price on the long term .

When a good stock becomes bad (due to consistent poor results like 2years) you cut loss by selling off and positioning in good stocks.

This is what works for me but may not work for others.

Political risk like 2022 is not new to me.
For income investors, you get a high DY and later the price recovers . That has been the trend.

I have been investing here since 2004, but got my act together in 2010. That is 6 wasted years of fumbling due to lack of clear cut strategy .
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Ericsson
#2243 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2020 7:45:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,137
Location: NAIROBI
Ericsson wrote:
young wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2 Actual 12.8
EQTY 14 Actual 11.9
COOP 10.2 Actual 9.6
I&M 6.9 Actual 4.5
ABSA 6.2 Actual 3.3
SCBK 6.1 Actual 5.1
DTB 5.8 Actual 4.48
NCBA 4.8 Actual 3.91
STANB 4.2 Actual 4.1
HFCK 0.042 Actual -0.293



Equity is catching up with KCB smile .


Stanchart ksh.5.1bn
No interim dividend


DTB Ksh.4.48bn


I&M ksh.4.5bn



NCBA. Ksh 3.91bn

Outstanding ..ABSA & HFCK


HFCK Loss of Ksh.293.8mn
ABSA ksh.3.3bn


Correction HFCK loss before tax at Ksh.293.8mn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
wukan
#2244 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2020 10:07:09 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,487
There was a time I was huge fan of banking stocks. I would give them money for rights issue. Now can't touch this

Quote:
Banks will have to get the approval of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) before declaring dividends for the current financial year, according to a new directive by the regulator that is focused on ensuring lenders have enough capital to ride out the Covid-19 pandemic.

The CBK’s directive, confirmed by multiple bank executives, indicates that investors on the Nairobi Securities Exchange will forego dividends running into billions of shillings.
https://www.businessdail...5354-mg704kz/index.html


I would rather give that capital to my sacco
obiero
#2245 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2020 8:41:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,854
Location: nairobi
wukan wrote:
There was a time I was huge fan of banking stocks. I would give them money for rights issue. Now can't touch this

Quote:
Banks will have to get the approval of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) before declaring dividends for the current financial year, according to a new directive by the regulator that is focused on ensuring lenders have enough capital to ride out the Covid-19 pandemic.

The CBK’s directive, confirmed by multiple bank executives, indicates that investors on the Nairobi Securities Exchange will forego dividends running into billions of shillings.
https://www.businessdail...5354-mg704kz/index.html


I would rather give that capital to my sacco

Now is time to live life, eat it with a big spoon. No investments at the NSE upto 2022, unless prices get abnormally low, which is likely.. Remember next year will start to get noisy as Raila moves towards the throne
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92
Ericsson
#2246 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2020 10:30:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,137
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
There was a time I was huge fan of banking stocks. I would give them money for rights issue. Now can't touch this

Quote:
Banks will have to get the approval of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) before declaring dividends for the current financial year, according to a new directive by the regulator that is focused on ensuring lenders have enough capital to ride out the Covid-19 pandemic.

The CBK’s directive, confirmed by multiple bank executives, indicates that investors on the Nairobi Securities Exchange will forego dividends running into billions of shillings.
https://www.businessdail...5354-mg704kz/index.html


I would rather give that capital to my sacco

Now is time to live life, eat it with a big spoon. No investments at the NSE upto 2022, unless prices get abnormally low, which is likely.. Remember next year will start to get noisy as Raila moves towards the throne


KQ nationalization and HFCK buyout
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#2247 Posted : Saturday, August 29, 2020 5:35:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,854
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
There was a time I was huge fan of banking stocks. I would give them money for rights issue. Now can't touch this

Quote:
Banks will have to get the approval of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) before declaring dividends for the current financial year, according to a new directive by the regulator that is focused on ensuring lenders have enough capital to ride out the Covid-19 pandemic.

The CBK’s directive, confirmed by multiple bank executives, indicates that investors on the Nairobi Securities Exchange will forego dividends running into billions of shillings.
https://www.businessdail...5354-mg704kz/index.html


I would rather give that capital to my sacco

Now is time to live life, eat it with a big spoon. No investments at the NSE upto 2022, unless prices get abnormally low, which is likely.. Remember next year will start to get noisy as Raila moves towards the throne


KQ nationalization and HFCK buyout

Let me leave this here https://www.businessdail...5354-mg704kz/index.html
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92
Ericsson
#2248 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2020 6:47:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,137
Location: NAIROBI
Due to the corona virus pandemic effect in the economy,exchange bar is not able to give guidance on Q3 2020 results.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
cyruskulei
#2249 Posted : Thursday, October 01, 2020 2:49:45 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/9/2010
Posts: 271
Location: kenya
Did anyone here attend AGM for SCANK. Please share the notes and comments. Thanks
Work hard at your job and you can make a living. Work hard on yourself and you can make a fortune.

Ericsson
#2250 Posted : Thursday, October 01, 2020 3:20:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,137
Location: NAIROBI
cyruskulei wrote:
Did anyone here attend AGM for SCANK. Please share the notes and comments. Thanks


Check on the Scangroup thread.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#2251 Posted : Sunday, November 15, 2020 3:45:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,854
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Due to the corona virus pandemic effect in the economy,exchange bar is not able to give guidance on Q3 2020 results.

Ooliskia wapi! Things fall apart..
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92
Ericsson
#2252 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2020 7:25:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,137
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Due to the corona virus pandemic effect in the economy,exchange bar is not able to give guidance on Q3 2020 results.

Ooliskia wapi! Things fall apart..

NCBA and I&M the figures are too ambitious
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Horton
#2253 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2020 9:56:31 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Due to the corona virus pandemic effect in the economy,exchange bar is not able to give guidance on Q3 2020 results.

Ooliskia wapi! Things fall apart..

NCBA and I&M the figures are too ambitious


IM bank is quite conservative in its lending. I doubt there will be a significant impact here
VituVingiSana
#2254 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2020 11:45:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,328
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Due to the corona virus pandemic effect in the economy,exchange bar is not able to give guidance on Q3 2020 results.

Ooliskia wapi! Things fall apart..

NCBA and I&M the figures are too ambitious

On I&M, we will know soon whether you or Obiero are right.
What's your estimate of Q3 for I&M?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#2255 Posted : Tuesday, November 17, 2020 7:35:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,137
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Due to the corona virus pandemic effect in the economy,exchange bar is not able to give guidance on Q3 2020 results.

Ooliskia wapi! Things fall apart..

NCBA and I&M the figures are too ambitious

On I&M, we will know soon whether you or Obiero are right.
What's your estimate of Q3 for I&M?

6.2
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#2256 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2020 5:51:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,137
Location: NAIROBI
ABSA Q3 PBT
Profit before tax exceptional items ksh.5.335bn
Profit before tax after exceptional items ksh.3.391bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#2257 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2020 6:50:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,854
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
ABSA Q3 PBT
Profit before tax exceptional items ksh.5.335bn
Profit before tax after exceptional items ksh.3.391bn

Apandaye ngazi hushuka
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92
Ericsson
#2258 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2020 10:45:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,137
Location: NAIROBI
Coop bank 13.8bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#2259 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2020 9:39:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,854
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Coop bank 13.8bn

A strong bank
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92
Ericsson
#2260 Posted : Friday, November 20, 2020 6:20:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,137
Location: NAIROBI
Stanchart 6.56bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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