Home SK - Stocks, Property, Investment Chamas - Investment Groups BIZ - Small Business Soko - Market Wazua Life About Wazua
SIGN IN REGISTER
Tuesday, Aug 4, 2020
Investor
We’re investing funds for profit. Join us and wazua!
LATEST DISCUSSIONS
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20 [3586]
VituVingiSana's MIGHTY road to wealth. Take notes! [91]
Madness at the NSE [2310]
KenGen HY 2019 [557]
Exchange Bar: Results forecast [2198]
Safaricom 2019/2020 [397]
Realities of Forex Investment [3922]
Bitcoin: Does it have a future ? [1235]
Alternative hypothesis:Only idiots make money on N... [45]
411 on dividend and AGM [906]
Kenya Power HY 2019 [243]
EA Cables and Transcentury FY 2018 [80]
NMG FY 2018 and Beyond [132]
Eye on I&,M ... [148]
Pertinent Question: Private Equity vs Public Equit... [5]
 
Forum Jump








Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

116 Pages«<113114115116>
Madness at the NSE
kmucheke
#2281 Posted : Tuesday, June 16, 2020 2:52:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 129
slick wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
slick wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
CMA raises red flag over top five firms’ dominance

Quote:

The CMA has flagged the dominance of five companies — including SCOM — in the 65-stock Nairobi bourse as a big risk, with the performance of their shares dictating whether the market goes up or down on any given day.


Quote:
The combined market value of SCOM, EQTY, EABL, KCB and COOP now stands at Sh1.669 trillion, compared to the total NSE market cap of Sh2.183 trillion.

SCOM alone is worth more than all the other listed firms combined, with its valuation of Sh1.181 trillion accounting for 54.1 percent of the NSE’s market capitalisation.

CMA should stop bothering about the other 4 Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
SCOM is 54%!!! The other 4 COMBINED come nowhere close. d'oh!
And 3 of the 4 are banks.


Market dominance by a few stocks is also an issue in the US.Over 20% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the NASDAQ is dominated by just 5 stocks ie the Microsoft,Apple,Amazon,Google,Facebook




I didn't know that. This is a ticking time bomb.

Do you foresee another tech bubble burst in the near future that will affect the FANMAG stocks?



I didnt want to go off on a tangent since this thread is dedicated to NSE but to respond yes I agree its a ticking and another tech bubble burst is very possible?When will this burst occur is something one cannot predict as the Fed always seems to "salvage" the market via its money printing schemes.The rampant speculation in the general market and in particular these 5 tech stocks (including Netflix) is unprecedented and even more extreme than in the dotcom bubble.Currently the market is in its biggest bubble in history even bigger than the dotcom one.The NASDAQ had hit over 10,000 a few days ago which is ridiculous.Sure these tech giants are highly innovative but it doesnt justify their extreme stock valuations.Tesla is definitely the worst in the speculative frenzy.

Most of the market rally since the March 2020 collapse has been fuelled by these FANMAG (FANMAG stands for Facebook,Amazon,Microsoft,Netflix,Apple,Google) stocks and NASDAQ hit its all time highs over 10,000 a few days ago due to these 6 stocks.Retail speculation coupled with money managers passive investing strategies ie investing in a broader ETF like the QQQs (QQQ is the biggest ETF for the NASDAQ) where money managers prefer to buy the broader QQQ ETF as opposed to buying individual stocks thus there is an over-concentration in these 6 stocks that the QQQ ETF almost predominantly buys.Microsoft,Amazon,Apple have already surpassed the 1 trillion USD market cap.To emphasize the mad speculation by retail investors that supersedes the dotcom madness,retail are piling into companies like Hertz that have already filed for bankruptcy which is stupid to say the least.

As I said,its impossible to predict when this mad speculation will end in tears as the Fed keeps printing trillions to pump the market.During the dotcom bubble the Fed was hardly printing money so that collapse (over 80% decline of the NASDAQ in the dotcom burst)occurred but in the current environment there is almost no limits to what the Fed can do.Could the NASDAQ hit even 12,000 or even 15,000 due to Fed money printing?Sure thats possible.Could the tech frenzy collapse also.Yeah thats possible too.Lets see how this insanity plays out

@slick thank you for the well detailed analysis. Lets wait and see . We are living in very unprecedented times.

kmucheke
#2282 Posted : Tuesday, June 16, 2020 3:08:32 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 129
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
CMA raises red flag over top five firms’ dominance

Quote:

The CMA has flagged the dominance of five companies — including SCOM — in the 65-stock Nairobi bourse as a big risk, with the performance of their shares dictating whether the market goes up or down on any given day.


Quote:
The combined market value of SCOM, EQTY, EABL, KCB and COOP now stands at Sh1.669 trillion, compared to the total NSE market cap of Sh2.183 trillion.

SCOM alone is worth more than all the other listed firms combined, with its valuation of Sh1.181 trillion accounting for 54.1 percent of the NSE’s market capitalisation.

CMA should stop bothering about the other 4 Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
SCOM is 54%!!! The other 4 COMBINED come nowhere close. d'oh!
And 3 of the 4 are banks.


This confirms SCOM is a dominant entity on all spheres. However success should not be punished. NSE and CMA should come up with incentives to improve the market caps of other stocks,
Kusadikika
#2283 Posted : Tuesday, June 16, 2020 4:02:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,671
slick wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
slick wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
CMA raises red flag over top five firms’ dominance

Quote:

The CMA has flagged the dominance of five companies — including SCOM — in the 65-stock Nairobi bourse as a big risk, with the performance of their shares dictating whether the market goes up or down on any given day.


Quote:
The combined market value of SCOM, EQTY, EABL, KCB and COOP now stands at Sh1.669 trillion, compared to the total NSE market cap of Sh2.183 trillion.

SCOM alone is worth more than all the other listed firms combined, with its valuation of Sh1.181 trillion accounting for 54.1 percent of the NSE’s market capitalisation.

CMA should stop bothering about the other 4 Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
SCOM is 54%!!! The other 4 COMBINED come nowhere close. d'oh!
And 3 of the 4 are banks.


Market dominance by a few stocks is also an issue in the US.Over 20% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the NASDAQ is dominated by just 5 stocks ie the Microsoft,Apple,Amazon,Google,Facebook




I didn't know that. This is a ticking time bomb.

Do you foresee another tech bubble burst in the near future that will affect the FANMAG stocks?



I didnt want to go off on a tangent since this thread is dedicated to NSE but to respond yes I agree its a ticking and another tech bubble burst is very possible?When will this burst occur is something one cannot predict as the Fed always seems to "salvage" the market via its money printing schemes.The rampant speculation in the general market and in particular these 5 tech stocks (including Netflix) is unprecedented and even more extreme than in the dotcom bubble.Currently the market is in its biggest bubble in history even bigger than the dotcom one.The NASDAQ had hit over 10,000 a few days ago which is ridiculous.Sure these tech giants are highly innovative but it doesnt justify their extreme stock valuations.Tesla is definitely the worst in the speculative frenzy.

Most of the market rally since the March 2020 collapse has been fuelled by these FANMAG (FANMAG stands for Facebook,Amazon,Microsoft,Netflix,Apple,Google) stocks and NASDAQ hit its all time highs over 10,000 a few days ago due to these 6 stocks.Retail speculation coupled with money managers passive investing strategies ie investing in a broader ETF like the QQQs (QQQ is the biggest ETF for the NASDAQ) where money managers prefer to buy the broader QQQ ETF as opposed to buying individual stocks thus there is an over-concentration in these 6 stocks that the QQQ ETF almost predominantly buys.Microsoft,Amazon,Apple have already surpassed the 1 trillion USD market cap.To emphasize the mad speculation by retail investors that supersedes the dotcom madness,retail are piling into companies like Hertz that have already filed for bankruptcy which is stupid to say the least.

As I said,its impossible to predict when this mad speculation will end in tears as the Fed keeps printing trillions to pump the market.During the dotcom bubble the Fed was hardly printing money so that collapse (over 80% decline of the NASDAQ in the dotcom burst)occurred but in the current environment there is almost no limits to what the Fed can do.Could the NASDAQ hit even 12,000 or even 15,000 due to Fed money printing?Sure thats possible.Could the tech frenzy collapse also.Yeah thats possible too.Lets see how this insanity plays out



On the big US tech companies, I think this time its different. In the tech bubble of the 90s the companies did not revenue. Their valuation was based on the prospect of future revenues. Right now those big 6 not only have substantial revenues but have very low costs and are some of the most cash rich companies in the world. They basically built an infrastructure through which all commerce in the world flows. Imagine if some company came to Kenya and built roads connecting every city, town and village. Then they charge a small fee for people to pass. That is what these companies have done in the world. It is exactly what Safaricom has done in Kenya. They have grown so big that the only thing that can topple them is legislation. You have to give credit to the Chinese. They are the only country that saw the rise of big tech companies for what they are. They protected their market and allowed home grown solutions for each of those giant tech companies. The rest of the world is now captive.

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.
kawi254
#2284 Posted : Tuesday, June 16, 2020 4:33:08 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2015
Posts: 380
Location: Nairobi
Kusadikika wrote:

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.



Bob Collymore is quoted as saying:

"For all the kudos Safaricom won worldwide for its mobile payments platform M-Pesa, “you can pay for things with your Fitbit now,” says Collymore.

And in the future, the real challengers to telephone companies like Safaricom will come from ‘big tech’: Amazon, Google, Facebook, as well as Chinese challengers like Tencent. WhatsApp has launched a payments trial in India involving tens of millions of participants. If WhatsApp gets into payments and comes to Kenya, what will Safaricom do?
"


Google's loon balloons are hovering over Kenya Airspace and have technical capacity to provide free LTE internet to everyone but for now working with Telkom-Orange. i.e in a stroke Safaricom Data revenue could suffer and since you can call via WhatsApp also voice revenues would dip. SpaceX with StarLink now have 540 satellites in orbit and is preparing beta tests for it's free?? internet.

Big tech disruption is almost here but regulatory approval delays will see Safaricom star continue to shine for a while...e.g Google Loon overflying Kenyan Airspace was pending approval for a couple of years but Kenya-1 made it seem approval was COVID-19 related. I see no serious M-PESA new competitor getting regulatory approval any time soon.
slick
#2285 Posted : Tuesday, June 16, 2020 4:42:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
Kusadikika wrote:
slick wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
slick wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
CMA raises red flag over top five firms’ dominance

Quote:

The CMA has flagged the dominance of five companies — including SCOM — in the 65-stock Nairobi bourse as a big risk, with the performance of their shares dictating whether the market goes up or down on any given day.


Quote:
The combined market value of SCOM, EQTY, EABL, KCB and COOP now stands at Sh1.669 trillion, compared to the total NSE market cap of Sh2.183 trillion.

SCOM alone is worth more than all the other listed firms combined, with its valuation of Sh1.181 trillion accounting for 54.1 percent of the NSE’s market capitalisation.

CMA should stop bothering about the other 4 Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
SCOM is 54%!!! The other 4 COMBINED come nowhere close. d'oh!
And 3 of the 4 are banks.


Market dominance by a few stocks is also an issue in the US.Over 20% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the NASDAQ is dominated by just 5 stocks ie the Microsoft,Apple,Amazon,Google,Facebook




I didn't know that. This is a ticking time bomb.

Do you foresee another tech bubble burst in the near future that will affect the FANMAG stocks?



I didnt want to go off on a tangent since this thread is dedicated to NSE but to respond yes I agree its a ticking and another tech bubble burst is very possible?When will this burst occur is something one cannot predict as the Fed always seems to "salvage" the market via its money printing schemes.The rampant speculation in the general market and in particular these 5 tech stocks (including Netflix) is unprecedented and even more extreme than in the dotcom bubble.Currently the market is in its biggest bubble in history even bigger than the dotcom one.The NASDAQ had hit over 10,000 a few days ago which is ridiculous.Sure these tech giants are highly innovative but it doesnt justify their extreme stock valuations.Tesla is definitely the worst in the speculative frenzy.

Most of the market rally since the March 2020 collapse has been fuelled by these FANMAG (FANMAG stands for Facebook,Amazon,Microsoft,Netflix,Apple,Google) stocks and NASDAQ hit its all time highs over 10,000 a few days ago due to these 6 stocks.Retail speculation coupled with money managers passive investing strategies ie investing in a broader ETF like the QQQs (QQQ is the biggest ETF for the NASDAQ) where money managers prefer to buy the broader QQQ ETF as opposed to buying individual stocks thus there is an over-concentration in these 6 stocks that the QQQ ETF almost predominantly buys.Microsoft,Amazon,Apple have already surpassed the 1 trillion USD market cap.To emphasize the mad speculation by retail investors that supersedes the dotcom madness,retail are piling into companies like Hertz that have already filed for bankruptcy which is stupid to say the least.

As I said,its impossible to predict when this mad speculation will end in tears as the Fed keeps printing trillions to pump the market.During the dotcom bubble the Fed was hardly printing money so that collapse (over 80% decline of the NASDAQ in the dotcom burst)occurred but in the current environment there is almost no limits to what the Fed can do.Could the NASDAQ hit even 12,000 or even 15,000 due to Fed money printing?Sure thats possible.Could the tech frenzy collapse also.Yeah thats possible too.Lets see how this insanity plays out



On the big US tech companies, I think this time its different. In the tech bubble of the 90s the companies did not revenue. Their valuation was based on the prospect of future revenues. Right now those big 6 not only have substantial revenues but have very low costs and are some of the most cash rich companies in the world. They basically built an infrastructure through which all commerce in the world flows. Imagine if some company came to Kenya and built roads connecting every city, town and village. Then they charge a small fee for people to pass. That is what these companies have done in the world. It is exactly what Safaricom has done in Kenya. They have grown so big that the only thing that can topple them is legislation. You have to give credit to the Chinese. They are the only country that saw the rise of big tech companies for what they are. They protected their market and allowed home grown solutions for each of those giant tech companies. The rest of the world is now captive.

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.



In some cases this tech bubble is different and in other cases its the same.Sure these mega tech stocks have highly innovative as I said earlier and large revenues unlike many dotcom companies which were just unicorns with no business plan and no revenues and were just playing the internet bubble that promised a paradigm shift in business operations and life in general.There are still useless tech unicorns that exist but not to the ludicrous numbers like in the late 1990s and early 2000s.Still companies like Microsoft,Amazon,Oracle.IBM etc despite being innovative during the dotcom era had their stocks being grossly overvalued during that era and their stocks basically collapsed with the rest of the dotcom bubble burst.Thus despite the current mega caps being highly revolutionary,their stock valuations are still massively overvalued.Some like Netflix and Tesla have little and even at times negative Free Cash Flow so their stock valuations are utterly ridiculous



Also unlike in the dotcom bubble era where the Fed was hardly printing money,the current Fed multi-trillion printing bonanza may result in the tech stocks not declining massively as the US central bank has repeatedly shown its ability to reflate bubbles.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
kmucheke
#2286 Posted : Tuesday, June 16, 2020 5:38:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 129
kawi254 wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.



Bob Collymore is quoted as saying:

"For all the kudos Safaricom won worldwide for its mobile payments platform M-Pesa, “you can pay for things with your Fitbit now,” says Collymore.

And in the future, the real challengers to telephone companies like Safaricom will come from ‘big tech’: Amazon, Google, Facebook, as well as Chinese challengers like Tencent. WhatsApp has launched a payments trial in India involving tens of millions of participants. If WhatsApp gets into payments and comes to Kenya, what will Safaricom do?
"


Google's loon balloons are hovering over Kenya Airspace and have technical capacity to provide free LTE internet to everyone but for now working with Telkom-Orange. i.e in a stroke Safaricom Data revenue could suffer and since you can call via WhatsApp also voice revenues would dip. SpaceX with StarLink now have 540 satellites in orbit and is preparing beta tests for it's free?? internet.

Big tech disruption is almost here but regulatory approval delays will see Safaricom star continue to shine for a while...e.g Google Loon overflying Kenyan Airspace was pending approval for a couple of years but Kenya-1 made it seem approval was COVID-19 related. I see no serious M-PESA new competitor getting regulatory approval any time soon.


Very interesting interview, but the part that gets me most is what he says about his successor- “[We need] someone who understands the financial sector a lot more, if we are to occupy the fintech space, and someone who is not going to be scared of going into other markets.”

According to the late Collymore his successor should deepen and widen the fintech offering and take SCOM to other markets (ETH comes to mind). The latter part is akin to how the Nigerian market contributes to significant revenues for MTN Group South Africa and Multichoice South Africa.


Ericsson
#2287 Posted : Tuesday, June 16, 2020 8:02:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,676
Location: NAIROBI
kmucheke wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.



Bob Collymore is quoted as saying:

"For all the kudos Safaricom won worldwide for its mobile payments platform M-Pesa, “you can pay for things with your Fitbit now,” says Collymore.

And in the future, the real challengers to telephone companies like Safaricom will come from ‘big tech’: Amazon, Google, Facebook, as well as Chinese challengers like Tencent. WhatsApp has launched a payments trial in India involving tens of millions of participants. If WhatsApp gets into payments and comes to Kenya, what will Safaricom do?
"


Google's loon balloons are hovering over Kenya Airspace and have technical capacity to provide free LTE internet to everyone but for now working with Telkom-Orange. i.e in a stroke Safaricom Data revenue could suffer and since you can call via WhatsApp also voice revenues would dip. SpaceX with StarLink now have 540 satellites in orbit and is preparing beta tests for it's free?? internet.

Big tech disruption is almost here but regulatory approval delays will see Safaricom star continue to shine for a while...e.g Google Loon overflying Kenyan Airspace was pending approval for a couple of years but Kenya-1 made it seem approval was COVID-19 related. I see no serious M-PESA new competitor getting regulatory approval any time soon.


Very interesting interview, but the part that gets me most is what he says about his successor- “[We need] someone who understands the financial sector a lot more, if we are to occupy the fintech space, and someone who is not going to be scared of going into other markets.”

According to the late Collymore his successor should deepen and widen the fintech offering and take SCOM to other markets (ETH comes to mind). The latter part is akin to how the Nigerian market contributes to significant revenues for MTN Group South Africa and Multichoice South Africa.




If they get the nod to go to Ethiopia it shall also a significant chunk of revenue.In Ethiopia they will go via JV
VituVingiSana
#2288 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 6:24:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,150
Location: Nairobi
Kusadikika wrote:
slick wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
slick wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
CMA raises red flag over top five firms’ dominance

Quote:

The CMA has flagged the dominance of five companies — including SCOM — in the 65-stock Nairobi bourse as a big risk, with the performance of their shares dictating whether the market goes up or down on any given day.


Quote:
The combined market value of SCOM, EQTY, EABL, KCB and COOP now stands at Sh1.669 trillion, compared to the total NSE market cap of Sh2.183 trillion.

SCOM alone is worth more than all the other listed firms combined, with its valuation of Sh1.181 trillion accounting for 54.1 percent of the NSE’s market capitalisation.

CMA should stop bothering about the other 4 Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
SCOM is 54%!!! The other 4 COMBINED come nowhere close. d'oh!
And 3 of the 4 are banks.


Market dominance by a few stocks is also an issue in the US.Over 20% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the NASDAQ is dominated by just 5 stocks ie the Microsoft,Apple,Amazon,Google,Facebook




I didn't know that. This is a ticking time bomb.

Do you foresee another tech bubble burst in the near future that will affect the FANMAG stocks?



I didnt want to go off on a tangent since this thread is dedicated to NSE but to respond yes I agree its a ticking and another tech bubble burst is very possible?When will this burst occur is something one cannot predict as the Fed always seems to "salvage" the market via its money printing schemes.The rampant speculation in the general market and in particular these 5 tech stocks (including Netflix) is unprecedented and even more extreme than in the dotcom bubble.Currently the market is in its biggest bubble in history even bigger than the dotcom one.The NASDAQ had hit over 10,000 a few days ago which is ridiculous.Sure these tech giants are highly innovative but it doesnt justify their extreme stock valuations.Tesla is definitely the worst in the speculative frenzy.

Most of the market rally since the March 2020 collapse has been fuelled by these FANMAG (FANMAG stands for Facebook,Amazon,Microsoft,Netflix,Apple,Google) stocks and NASDAQ hit its all time highs over 10,000 a few days ago due to these 6 stocks.Retail speculation coupled with money managers passive investing strategies ie investing in a broader ETF like the QQQs (QQQ is the biggest ETF for the NASDAQ) where money managers prefer to buy the broader QQQ ETF as opposed to buying individual stocks thus there is an over-concentration in these 6 stocks that the QQQ ETF almost predominantly buys.Microsoft,Amazon,Apple have already surpassed the 1 trillion USD market cap.To emphasize the mad speculation by retail investors that supersedes the dotcom madness,retail are piling into companies like Hertz that have already filed for bankruptcy which is stupid to say the least.

As I said,its impossible to predict when this mad speculation will end in tears as the Fed keeps printing trillions to pump the market.During the dotcom bubble the Fed was hardly printing money so that collapse (over 80% decline of the NASDAQ in the dotcom burst)occurred but in the current environment there is almost no limits to what the Fed can do.Could the NASDAQ hit even 12,000 or even 15,000 due to Fed money printing?Sure thats possible.Could the tech frenzy collapse also.Yeah thats possible too.Lets see how this insanity plays out



On the big US tech companies, I think this time its different. In the tech bubble of the 90s the companies did not revenue. Their valuation was based on the prospect of future revenues. Right now those big 6 not only have substantial revenues but have very low costs and are some of the most cash rich companies in the world. They basically built an infrastructure through which all commerce in the world flows. Imagine if some company came to Kenya and built roads connecting every city, town and village. Then they charge a small fee for people to pass. That is what these companies have done in the world. It is exactly what Safaricom has done in Kenya. They have grown so big that the only thing that can topple them is legislation. You have to give credit to the Chinese. They are the only country that saw the rise of big tech companies for what they are. They protected their market and allowed home grown solutions for each of those giant tech companies. The rest of the world is now captive.

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.

The Chinese stole/copied what they could. In a sense it's not fair but the "West" has also benefitted from Chinese (Indian, Asian )IP in past centuries from paper to medicines.
Can the Chinese products/services expand outside of China?
There's a benefit in numbers too and Kenyans can benefit from FB, etc to sell/market to the "West" as well.
More so, these platforms can help INTRA-AFRICA trade.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kmucheke
#2289 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 8:36:47 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 129
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.



Bob Collymore is quoted as saying:

"For all the kudos Safaricom won worldwide for its mobile payments platform M-Pesa, “you can pay for things with your Fitbit now,” says Collymore.

And in the future, the real challengers to telephone companies like Safaricom will come from ‘big tech’: Amazon, Google, Facebook, as well as Chinese challengers like Tencent. WhatsApp has launched a payments trial in India involving tens of millions of participants. If WhatsApp gets into payments and comes to Kenya, what will Safaricom do?
"


Google's loon balloons are hovering over Kenya Airspace and have technical capacity to provide free LTE internet to everyone but for now working with Telkom-Orange. i.e in a stroke Safaricom Data revenue could suffer and since you can call via WhatsApp also voice revenues would dip. SpaceX with StarLink now have 540 satellites in orbit and is preparing beta tests for it's free?? internet.

Big tech disruption is almost here but regulatory approval delays will see Safaricom star continue to shine for a while...e.g Google Loon overflying Kenyan Airspace was pending approval for a couple of years but Kenya-1 made it seem approval was COVID-19 related. I see no serious M-PESA new competitor getting regulatory approval any time soon.


Very interesting interview, but the part that gets me most is what he says about his successor- “[We need] someone who understands the financial sector a lot more, if we are to occupy the fintech space, and someone who is not going to be scared of going into other markets.”

According to the late Collymore his successor should deepen and widen the fintech offering and take SCOM to other markets (ETH comes to mind). The latter part is akin to how the Nigerian market contributes to significant revenues for MTN Group South Africa and Multichoice South Africa.




If they get the nod to go to Ethiopia it shall also a significant chunk of revenue.In Ethiopia they will go via JV


Significant revenue indeed. Ethiopia is a country with an estimated population of over 100M+ and ranks amongst the fastest growing economies. What i'm not sure is their political and economical ideology.
Swenani
#2290 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 11:04:59 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,154
Location: Vacuum
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.



Bob Collymore is quoted as saying:

"For all the kudos Safaricom won worldwide for its mobile payments platform M-Pesa, “you can pay for things with your Fitbit now,” says Collymore.

And in the future, the real challengers to telephone companies like Safaricom will come from ‘big tech’: Amazon, Google, Facebook, as well as Chinese challengers like Tencent. WhatsApp has launched a payments trial in India involving tens of millions of participants. If WhatsApp gets into payments and comes to Kenya, what will Safaricom do?
"


Google's loon balloons are hovering over Kenya Airspace and have technical capacity to provide free LTE internet to everyone but for now working with Telkom-Orange. i.e in a stroke Safaricom Data revenue could suffer and since you can call via WhatsApp also voice revenues would dip. SpaceX with StarLink now have 540 satellites in orbit and is preparing beta tests for it's free?? internet.

Big tech disruption is almost here but regulatory approval delays will see Safaricom star continue to shine for a while...e.g Google Loon overflying Kenyan Airspace was pending approval for a couple of years but Kenya-1 made it seem approval was COVID-19 related. I see no serious M-PESA new competitor getting regulatory approval any time soon.


Very interesting interview, but the part that gets me most is what he says about his successor- “[We need] someone who understands the financial sector a lot more, if we are to occupy the fintech space, and someone who is not going to be scared of going into other markets.”

According to the late Collymore his successor should deepen and widen the fintech offering and take SCOM to other markets (ETH comes to mind). The latter part is akin to how the Nigerian market contributes to significant revenues for MTN Group South Africa and Multichoice South Africa.




If they get the nod to go to Ethiopia it shall also a significant chunk of revenue.In Ethiopia they will go via JV


Significant revenue indeed. Ethiopia is a country with an estimated population of over 100M+ and ranks amongst the fastest growing economies. What i'm not sure is their political and economical ideology.


A big population living in poverty doesn't help a company looking to grow revenues
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
kmucheke
#2291 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 12:50:23 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 129
Swenani wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.



Bob Collymore is quoted as saying:

"For all the kudos Safaricom won worldwide for its mobile payments platform M-Pesa, “you can pay for things with your Fitbit now,” says Collymore.

And in the future, the real challengers to telephone companies like Safaricom will come from ‘big tech’: Amazon, Google, Facebook, as well as Chinese challengers like Tencent. WhatsApp has launched a payments trial in India involving tens of millions of participants. If WhatsApp gets into payments and comes to Kenya, what will Safaricom do?
"


Google's loon balloons are hovering over Kenya Airspace and have technical capacity to provide free LTE internet to everyone but for now working with Telkom-Orange. i.e in a stroke Safaricom Data revenue could suffer and since you can call via WhatsApp also voice revenues would dip. SpaceX with StarLink now have 540 satellites in orbit and is preparing beta tests for it's free?? internet.

Big tech disruption is almost here but regulatory approval delays will see Safaricom star continue to shine for a while...e.g Google Loon overflying Kenyan Airspace was pending approval for a couple of years but Kenya-1 made it seem approval was COVID-19 related. I see no serious M-PESA new competitor getting regulatory approval any time soon.


Very interesting interview, but the part that gets me most is what he says about his successor- “[We need] someone who understands the financial sector a lot more, if we are to occupy the fintech space, and someone who is not going to be scared of going into other markets.”

According to the late Collymore his successor should deepen and widen the fintech offering and take SCOM to other markets (ETH comes to mind). The latter part is akin to how the Nigerian market contributes to significant revenues for MTN Group South Africa and Multichoice South Africa.




If they get the nod to go to Ethiopia it shall also a significant chunk of revenue.In Ethiopia they will go via JV


Significant revenue indeed. Ethiopia is a country with an estimated population of over 100M+ and ranks amongst the fastest growing economies. What i'm not sure is their political and economical ideology.


A big population living in poverty doesn't help a company looking to grow revenues




Quote:
Crucially, of those countries in top ten, only Ethiopia is on track to meet the United Nations’ SDG of ending extreme poverty by 2030. Outside the top ten, only Ghana and Mauritania are also on track with the SDG target. Indeed, of the 15 countries across the world where extreme poverty is rising per World Poverty Clock data, 13 are currently in Africa.

https://qz.com/africa/13...treme-poverty-globally/


Quote:
According to its annual financial report (MTN Group) for 2018, the Nigerian MTN unit contributed 28 percent of the Group revenue while the South African unit contributed 33.2 percent.

Link
Swenani
#2292 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 1:40:57 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,154
Location: Vacuum
kmucheke wrote:
Swenani wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.



Bob Collymore is quoted as saying:

"For all the kudos Safaricom won worldwide for its mobile payments platform M-Pesa, “you can pay for things with your Fitbit now,” says Collymore.

And in the future, the real challengers to telephone companies like Safaricom will come from ‘big tech’: Amazon, Google, Facebook, as well as Chinese challengers like Tencent. WhatsApp has launched a payments trial in India involving tens of millions of participants. If WhatsApp gets into payments and comes to Kenya, what will Safaricom do?
"


Google's loon balloons are hovering over Kenya Airspace and have technical capacity to provide free LTE internet to everyone but for now working with Telkom-Orange. i.e in a stroke Safaricom Data revenue could suffer and since you can call via WhatsApp also voice revenues would dip. SpaceX with StarLink now have 540 satellites in orbit and is preparing beta tests for it's free?? internet.

Big tech disruption is almost here but regulatory approval delays will see Safaricom star continue to shine for a while...e.g Google Loon overflying Kenyan Airspace was pending approval for a couple of years but Kenya-1 made it seem approval was COVID-19 related. I see no serious M-PESA new competitor getting regulatory approval any time soon.


Very interesting interview, but the part that gets me most is what he says about his successor- “[We need] someone who understands the financial sector a lot more, if we are to occupy the fintech space, and someone who is not going to be scared of going into other markets.”

According to the late Collymore his successor should deepen and widen the fintech offering and take SCOM to other markets (ETH comes to mind). The latter part is akin to how the Nigerian market contributes to significant revenues for MTN Group South Africa and Multichoice South Africa.




If they get the nod to go to Ethiopia it shall also a significant chunk of revenue.In Ethiopia they will go via JV


Significant revenue indeed. Ethiopia is a country with an estimated population of over 100M+ and ranks amongst the fastest growing economies. What i'm not sure is their political and economical ideology.


A big population living in poverty doesn't help a company looking to grow revenues




Quote:
Crucially, of those countries in top ten, only Ethiopia is on track to meet the United Nations’ SDG of ending extreme poverty by 2030. Outside the top ten, only Ghana and Mauritania are also on track with the SDG target. Indeed, of the 15 countries across the world where extreme poverty is rising per World Poverty Clock data, 13 are currently in Africa.

https://qz.com/africa/13...treme-poverty-globally/


Quote:
According to its annual financial report (MTN Group) for 2018, the Nigerian MTN unit contributed 28 percent of the Group revenue while the South African unit contributed 33.2 percent.

Link


SA with a population of aprox. 60M(2020 estimates) contributes 33%
Nigeria with a population of approx 210M(2020 estimates) contributes 28%
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
Kusadikika
#2293 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2020 2:40:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,671
Swenani wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.



Bob Collymore is quoted as saying:

"For all the kudos Safaricom won worldwide for its mobile payments platform M-Pesa, “you can pay for things with your Fitbit now,” says Collymore.

And in the future, the real challengers to telephone companies like Safaricom will come from ‘big tech’: Amazon, Google, Facebook, as well as Chinese challengers like Tencent. WhatsApp has launched a payments trial in India involving tens of millions of participants. If WhatsApp gets into payments and comes to Kenya, what will Safaricom do?
"


Google's loon balloons are hovering over Kenya Airspace and have technical capacity to provide free LTE internet to everyone but for now working with Telkom-Orange. i.e in a stroke Safaricom Data revenue could suffer and since you can call via WhatsApp also voice revenues would dip. SpaceX with StarLink now have 540 satellites in orbit and is preparing beta tests for it's free?? internet.

Big tech disruption is almost here but regulatory approval delays will see Safaricom star continue to shine for a while...e.g Google Loon overflying Kenyan Airspace was pending approval for a couple of years but Kenya-1 made it seem approval was COVID-19 related. I see no serious M-PESA new competitor getting regulatory approval any time soon.


Very interesting interview, but the part that gets me most is what he says about his successor- “[We need] someone who understands the financial sector a lot more, if we are to occupy the fintech space, and someone who is not going to be scared of going into other markets.”

According to the late Collymore his successor should deepen and widen the fintech offering and take SCOM to other markets (ETH comes to mind). The latter part is akin to how the Nigerian market contributes to significant revenues for MTN Group South Africa and Multichoice South Africa.




If they get the nod to go to Ethiopia it shall also a significant chunk of revenue.In Ethiopia they will go via JV


Significant revenue indeed. Ethiopia is a country with an estimated population of over 100M+ and ranks amongst the fastest growing economies. What i'm not sure is their political and economical ideology.


A big population living in poverty doesn't help a company looking to grow revenues



Did you ever hear the story of how Bata came to establish the shoe company in Limuru? Sometime in the 1930s Jan Antonin Bata the head of the family business Bata Shoes sent a consultant to the Kenya colony to investigate the possibility of starting a shoe company here. The consultant came and toured the country and wrote his report. The summary of his report was, "There are very many people here but they don't wear shoes, there is NO market for shoes here, a shoe company would not succeed here." Bata was not satisfied with this answer so he sent another consultant. This one also came and toured the country and actually seconded what the first consultant had seen but there was slight difference in his assessment. He said, "There are very many people here, they don't wear any shoes, there is a HUGE market for shoes here, a shoe company will be very successful here." Jan Antonin Bata believed the second guy and that is how Bata shoe company came to open a factory in Limuru.
Wakanyugi
#2294 Posted : Thursday, June 18, 2020 1:15:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,625
Kusadikika wrote:
Swenani wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.



Bob Collymore is quoted as saying:

"For all the kudos Safaricom won worldwide for its mobile payments platform M-Pesa, “you can pay for things with your Fitbit now,” says Collymore.

And in the future, the real challengers to telephone companies like Safaricom will come from ‘big tech’: Amazon, Google, Facebook, as well as Chinese challengers like Tencent. WhatsApp has launched a payments trial in India involving tens of millions of participants. If WhatsApp gets into payments and comes to Kenya, what will Safaricom do?
"


Google's loon balloons are hovering over Kenya Airspace and have technical capacity to provide free LTE internet to everyone but for now working with Telkom-Orange. i.e in a stroke Safaricom Data revenue could suffer and since you can call via WhatsApp also voice revenues would dip. SpaceX with StarLink now have 540 satellites in orbit and is preparing beta tests for it's free?? internet.

Big tech disruption is almost here but regulatory approval delays will see Safaricom star continue to shine for a while...e.g Google Loon overflying Kenyan Airspace was pending approval for a couple of years but Kenya-1 made it seem approval was COVID-19 related. I see no serious M-PESA new competitor getting regulatory approval any time soon.


Very interesting interview, but the part that gets me most is what he says about his successor- “[We need] someone who understands the financial sector a lot more, if we are to occupy the fintech space, and someone who is not going to be scared of going into other markets.”

According to the late Collymore his successor should deepen and widen the fintech offering and take SCOM to other markets (ETH comes to mind). The latter part is akin to how the Nigerian market contributes to significant revenues for MTN Group South Africa and Multichoice South Africa.




If they get the nod to go to Ethiopia it shall also a significant chunk of revenue.In Ethiopia they will go via JV


Significant revenue indeed. Ethiopia is a country with an estimated population of over 100M+ and ranks amongst the fastest growing economies. What i'm not sure is their political and economical ideology.


A big population living in poverty doesn't help a company looking to grow revenues



Did you ever hear the story of how Bata came to establish the shoe company in Limuru? Sometime in the 1930s Jan Antonin Bata the head of the family business Bata Shoes sent a consultant to the Kenya colony to investigate the possibility of starting a shoe company here. The consultant came and toured the country and wrote his report. The summary of his report was, "There are very many people here but they don't wear shoes, there is NO market for shoes here, a shoe company would not succeed here." Bata was not satisfied with this answer so he sent another consultant. This one also came and toured the country and actually seconded what the first consultant had seen but there was slight difference in his assessment. He said, "There are very many people here, they don't wear any shoes, there is a HUGE market for shoes here, a shoe company will be very successful here." Jan Antonin Bata believed the second guy and that is how Bata shoe company came to open a factory in Limuru.


Interesting lesson and very apt. But a more recent one was when Foreign banks decided that many Kenyans were too poor to hold accounts with them and forced them to close them. Equity bank stepped in and, by offering a service to these rejects, grew its way to become one of the biggest banks in Kenya.

The Agikuyu have a saying 'Poverty has no roots.' Many Ethiopians could be poor today, but who is to say about tomorrow?
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
slick
#2295 Posted : Saturday, June 20, 2020 8:53:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
slick wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:
slick wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
slick wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
CMA raises red flag over top five firms’ dominance

Quote:

The CMA has flagged the dominance of five companies — including SCOM — in the 65-stock Nairobi bourse as a big risk, with the performance of their shares dictating whether the market goes up or down on any given day.


Quote:
The combined market value of SCOM, EQTY, EABL, KCB and COOP now stands at Sh1.669 trillion, compared to the total NSE market cap of Sh2.183 trillion.

SCOM alone is worth more than all the other listed firms combined, with its valuation of Sh1.181 trillion accounting for 54.1 percent of the NSE’s market capitalisation.

CMA should stop bothering about the other 4 Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
SCOM is 54%!!! The other 4 COMBINED come nowhere close. d'oh!
And 3 of the 4 are banks.


Market dominance by a few stocks is also an issue in the US.Over 20% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the NASDAQ is dominated by just 5 stocks ie the Microsoft,Apple,Amazon,Google,Facebook




I didn't know that. This is a ticking time bomb.

Do you foresee another tech bubble burst in the near future that will affect the FANMAG stocks?



I didnt want to go off on a tangent since this thread is dedicated to NSE but to respond yes I agree its a ticking and another tech bubble burst is very possible?When will this burst occur is something one cannot predict as the Fed always seems to "salvage" the market via its money printing schemes.The rampant speculation in the general market and in particular these 5 tech stocks (including Netflix) is unprecedented and even more extreme than in the dotcom bubble.Currently the market is in its biggest bubble in history even bigger than the dotcom one.The NASDAQ had hit over 10,000 a few days ago which is ridiculous.Sure these tech giants are highly innovative but it doesnt justify their extreme stock valuations.Tesla is definitely the worst in the speculative frenzy.

Most of the market rally since the March 2020 collapse has been fuelled by these FANMAG (FANMAG stands for Facebook,Amazon,Microsoft,Netflix,Apple,Google) stocks and NASDAQ hit its all time highs over 10,000 a few days ago due to these 6 stocks.Retail speculation coupled with money managers passive investing strategies ie investing in a broader ETF like the QQQs (QQQ is the biggest ETF for the NASDAQ) where money managers prefer to buy the broader QQQ ETF as opposed to buying individual stocks thus there is an over-concentration in these 6 stocks that the QQQ ETF almost predominantly buys.Microsoft,Amazon,Apple have already surpassed the 1 trillion USD market cap.To emphasize the mad speculation by retail investors that supersedes the dotcom madness,retail are piling into companies like Hertz that have already filed for bankruptcy which is stupid to say the least.

As I said,its impossible to predict when this mad speculation will end in tears as the Fed keeps printing trillions to pump the market.During the dotcom bubble the Fed was hardly printing money so that collapse (over 80% decline of the NASDAQ in the dotcom burst)occurred but in the current environment there is almost no limits to what the Fed can do.Could the NASDAQ hit even 12,000 or even 15,000 due to Fed money printing?Sure thats possible.Could the tech frenzy collapse also.Yeah thats possible too.Lets see how this insanity plays out



On the big US tech companies, I think this time its different. In the tech bubble of the 90s the companies did not revenue. Their valuation was based on the prospect of future revenues. Right now those big 6 not only have substantial revenues but have very low costs and are some of the most cash rich companies in the world. They basically built an infrastructure through which all commerce in the world flows. Imagine if some company came to Kenya and built roads connecting every city, town and village. Then they charge a small fee for people to pass. That is what these companies have done in the world. It is exactly what Safaricom has done in Kenya. They have grown so big that the only thing that can topple them is legislation. You have to give credit to the Chinese. They are the only country that saw the rise of big tech companies for what they are. They protected their market and allowed home grown solutions for each of those giant tech companies. The rest of the world is now captive.

I just saw that Facebook has started money transfer on Whatsapp in Brazil. Facebook already has about 2 billion users in the world. Its user base is bigger than any country in the world. A money transfer service of WhatsApp is enough to kill local Mpesas in hundreds of countries and completely finish off Western Union and Moneygram from the face of the earth. The technology is already there for this to happen, the only thing standing in their way would be legislation. Imagine how much potential power companies like SpaceX now have. A company that has the infrastructure to launch satellites into space is not limited by boundaries. We are in a new era of Megasuperhumongous companies. I don't think the world has ever seen anything like this before.



In some cases this tech bubble is different and in other cases its the same.Sure these mega tech stocks have highly innovative as I said earlier and large revenues unlike many dotcom companies which were just unicorns with no business plan and no revenues and were just playing the internet bubble that promised a paradigm shift in business operations and life in general.There are still useless tech unicorns that exist but not to the ludicrous numbers like in the late 1990s and early 2000s.Still companies like Microsoft,Amazon,Oracle.IBM etc despite being innovative during the dotcom era had their stocks being grossly overvalued during that era and their stocks basically collapsed with the rest of the dotcom bubble burst.Thus despite the current mega caps being highly revolutionary,their stock valuations are still massively overvalued.Some like Netflix and Tesla have little and even at times negative Free Cash Flow so their stock valuations are utterly ridiculous



Also unlike in the dotcom bubble era where the Fed was hardly printing money,the current Fed multi-trillion printing bonanza may result in the tech stocks not declining massively as the US central bank has repeatedly shown its ability to reflate bubbles.


A short CNBC discussion that discusses the overvaluation of Microsoft and other mega tech companies.They echo same sentiments I have.Sure,these large tech firms are very innovative and revolutionary but their current stock valuations are grossly exaggerated and its Fed money printing pumping these stocks plus general market.Seems the big boy investors have been quietly trimming their positions in these large cap tech as naive retailers swarm in.Despite them being overvalued,they can still continue appreciating provided the Fed keeps pumping the liquidity into markets




Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
kmucheke
#2296 Posted : Friday, July 03, 2020 9:42:36 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 129
Quote:
“With the market trading at valuations below the historical average, we believe there are pockets of value in the market for investors with higher risk tolerance and are willing to wait out the pandemic,” said analysts at Cytonn Investments.

The NSE is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 8.2 times, compared to its historical average of 13.1 times.

The market’s average dividend yield is currently at 5.1 percent compared to a historical average of four percent.

Eight companies have a dividend yield in the double digits at prevailing prices, offering an attractive alternative for those seeking returns from the market at a time when capital gains are limited.


Link
Balaa
#2297 Posted : Friday, July 03, 2020 12:22:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/6/2018
Posts: 139
Location: Kinshasa
Yes, they also said that 2 years ago. Odundo and other talking heads say it all the time too, and you haven't heard the last of them yet. They all do have vested interests. The so-called "analysts" or "financial advisers" are simply salesmen. Remember like John Maynard Keynes said, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". Do your own homework.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2298 Posted : Friday, July 10, 2020 2:44:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,101
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli

Short term bounce loading following the sustained rout over the last 2 weeks that saw member,NMG breach the corona March lows. Britam looks attractive sub 7..
NSE20 stays above 1900.....FOR NOW
Markets
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2299 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2020 4:26:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,101
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
We are back to levels last seen in May 2003...........and this is before Safaricom goes ex

NSE20 down 68 points to 1811 Pray Pray Pray

Markets
sparkly
#2300 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2020 4:33:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 7,854
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
We are back to levels last seen in May 2003...........and this is before Safaricom goes ex

NSE20 down 68 points to 1811 Pray Pray Pray



we need divine intervention!
Life is short. Live passionately.
Users browsing this topic
Guest (3)
116 Pages«<113114115116>
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Home | . .. Investor | .. . Groups | .. . SME | . . . Market | .. . Club SK | . ..... About Wazua | . .. Search | . ..Sitemap | . ..Support | . ..Disclaimer | . ..Privacy Policy | . ..Terms of Use | . .. Contact Us
Copyright © 2020 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.