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Madness at the NSE
VituVingiSana
#1741 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2019 7:59:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,526
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT

The Art of Holding


Stocks rarely perform in the time frames we predict, and it’s why the market only works for investors that have a long-term portfolio focus. Performance is never linear, up and to the right, year after year. You sometimes have to hold onto a position for a few years before it goes up 100% in 3 months.

“I’m accustomed to hanging around with a stock when the price is going nowhere. Most of the money I make is in the third or fourth year that I’ve owned something.” – Peter Lynch

Here is a real-life example: I started buying a company I own today in early 2012 when it was at $0.35-0.40 per share. As my conviction grew I bought more and by mid- 2014 the stock hit $2.00 per share. Today (January 2017), the stock is still at $2.00 per share. Yes, I’m up considerably from my average cost basis but this company has been dead money for 2.5 years. Years!

How do I know if I’m right in holding versus just being entrenched in endowment bias?

Let’s get back to some first principles. Sustainable multi-baggers have three characteristics: Long-term revenue and earnings growth with little to no dilution. When you are holding onto a position ask yourself – Is this business growing and making more money per share than it did a year ago, two years ago? In my real-life example above the company’s business is almost double the size it was 2.5 years ago. Yes, the stock hasn’t gone anywhere but the business is doing really well. I have no problem holding this stock. If the business wasn’t performing, I would sell. Successful investors can differentiate business performance from stock performance and can take advantage of those investors who can’t.

“I don’t want to spend my time trying to earn a lot of little profits. I want very, very big profits that I’m ready to wait for.” – Phil Fisher

In the book, The Art of Execution, portfolio manager Lee Freeman-Shor invests $25-$150 million ($1+ billion total) in 45 of the world’s top investors. His instructions to them were simple as there was just one rule. They could only invest in their ten best ideas. Over several years he tracked their positions, trades, performance and was amazed at what he saw. He identified both good and bad habits and divided the investors into groups – Rabbits, Assassins, Hunters, Raiders, and the most successful group, the Connoisseurs.

“The most successful investors I worked with, those who made the most money, all had one thing in common: the presence of a couple of big winners in their portfolios. Any approach that does not embrace the possibility of winning big is doomed.” – Lee Freeman-Shor

In this excerpt, Lee Freeman-Shor talks about one of the attributes of Connoisseurs.

“One of the key requirements of staying invested in a big winner is to have (or cultivate) a high boredom threshold.

Meeting some of my Connoisseurs could be very, very boring because nothing ever changed. They would talk about the same stocks they had been invested in for the past five years or longer. On the days I had a meeting scheduled with a Connoisseur, I sometimes struggled to get out of bed.

The fact is, most of us will find it difficult to emulate the Connoisseurs because we feel the need to do something when we get to the office (or home trading desk) every day. We look at stock price charts, listen to the latest market news on Bloomberg TV, and fool ourselves into believing we could add value from making a few small trades here and there. It is very hard to do nothing but focus on the same handful of companies every year; only researching new ideas on the side.

Many of us, seeing we have made a profit of 40% in one of our stocks, start actively looking for another company to invest the money into – instead of leaving it invested. This is precisely why lots of investors never become very successful.”

Every multi-bagger will have long periods (even years) of stagnation as fundamentals backfill, old shareholders get bored, and new shareholders enter. Just like a fine wine, sustainable multi-baggers often take their time to ascend and develop. If you’re invested in great businesses that continue to grow and earn more money, don’t let lulls in stock price and boredom scare you out of them.

https://microcapclub.com.../01/the-art-of-holding/

KQ is definitely what is being discussed here
Must be given "Long-term revenue and earnings growth with little to no dilution."
As we have seen KQ's revenues have been rising, earnings even more so. And no dilution of the shareholding.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#1742 Posted : Monday, May 20, 2019 2:02:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,526
Location: Nairobi
From The Maturation of an Investor
https://microcapclub.com/2016/10/the-maturation-of-an-investor/


You cannot force the maturity process but you can shorten it in five ways:

1. Experience. Don’t be afraid “to do” and learn from experience.
2. Read. Read a lot of annual reports and industry reports. The key is to develop a circle of competence so you can act quickly and decisively. Read up on business leaders, investing leaders, thought leaders, and even some fiction. Why Fiction? It keeps your creative mind balanced which ultimately makes you more focused.

3. Mentors. Picture in your mind where you want to be in 10-years, and then go find that person today and learn from them.

4.Self-Awareness. In this context self-awareness is the ability to identify and evaluate your strengths, deficiencies, and outcomes. For example, you need to have the self-awareness to recognize luck versus skill. Sometimes you will make the right decision but you will still lose money. This doesn’t mean you made the wrong decision. Sometimes you will make a wrong decision but you will still make money. Don’t play games with yourself. Have enough self-awareness to recognize that even though you made money your actions were wrong.
5. Own Your Mistakes. When you blame others for your investing mistakes it proves you didn’t do enough of your own work. Fully own your past mistakes so you learn from them.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#1743 Posted : Monday, May 20, 2019 2:08:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,526
Location: Nairobi
https://microcapclub.com...uration-of-an-investor/

A big part of the preparation is so you develop a thick skin.
I am going to do that.

True conviction can only be obtained by trusting your own research over that of others. [i]True. This has generally served me well but I do read and incorporate what others say.
[/i]

Most multi-baggers will have long periods of stagnation as fundamentals backfill, old shareholders give up or get bored, and new shareholders enter. True. Sometimes, the share price doesn't match the good performance. That is OK. Time to buy more at lower prices.

A multi-baggers journey is filled with the corpses of highly intelligent articulate naysayers. Every investors strategy is different, so don’t waste a lot of time defending your positions to others. I am going to do that as well. Discuss, debate but why should I bother defending what I am confident about.
Do the work.
Trust your work.
Let company execution prove you right or wrong. Applause Applause Applause
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kenyan2019
#1744 Posted : Tuesday, May 21, 2019 10:11:29 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/30/2018
Posts: 41
NSE top index sinks to a new year low https://www.the-star.co....inks-to-a-new-year-low/ via @thestarkenya
rwitre
#1745 Posted : Tuesday, May 21, 2019 10:22:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 377
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT

The Art of Holding


Stocks rarely perform in the time frames we predict, and it’s why the market only works for investors that have a long-term portfolio focus. Performance is never linear, up and to the right, year after year. You sometimes have to hold onto a position for a few years before it goes up 100% in 3 months.

“I’m accustomed to hanging around with a stock when the price is going nowhere. Most of the money I make is in the third or fourth year that I’ve owned something.” – Peter Lynch

Here is a real-life example: I started buying a company I own today in early 2012 when it was at $0.35-0.40 per share. As my conviction grew I bought more and by mid- 2014 the stock hit $2.00 per share. Today (January 2017), the stock is still at $2.00 per share. Yes, I’m up considerably from my average cost basis but this company has been dead money for 2.5 years. Years!

How do I know if I’m right in holding versus just being entrenched in endowment bias?

Let’s get back to some first principles. Sustainable multi-baggers have three characteristics: Long-term revenue and earnings growth with little to no dilution. When you are holding onto a position ask yourself – Is this business growing and making more money per share than it did a year ago, two years ago? In my real-life example above the company’s business is almost double the size it was 2.5 years ago. Yes, the stock hasn’t gone anywhere but the business is doing really well. I have no problem holding this stock. If the business wasn’t performing, I would sell. Successful investors can differentiate business performance from stock performance and can take advantage of those investors who can’t.

“I don’t want to spend my time trying to earn a lot of little profits. I want very, very big profits that I’m ready to wait for.” – Phil Fisher

In the book, The Art of Execution, portfolio manager Lee Freeman-Shor invests $25-$150 million ($1+ billion total) in 45 of the world’s top investors. His instructions to them were simple as there was just one rule. They could only invest in their ten best ideas. Over several years he tracked their positions, trades, performance and was amazed at what he saw. He identified both good and bad habits and divided the investors into groups – Rabbits, Assassins, Hunters, Raiders, and the most successful group, the Connoisseurs.

“The most successful investors I worked with, those who made the most money, all had one thing in common: the presence of a couple of big winners in their portfolios. Any approach that does not embrace the possibility of winning big is doomed.” – Lee Freeman-Shor

In this excerpt, Lee Freeman-Shor talks about one of the attributes of Connoisseurs.

“One of the key requirements of staying invested in a big winner is to have (or cultivate) a high boredom threshold.

Meeting some of my Connoisseurs could be very, very boring because nothing ever changed. They would talk about the same stocks they had been invested in for the past five years or longer. On the days I had a meeting scheduled with a Connoisseur, I sometimes struggled to get out of bed.

The fact is, most of us will find it difficult to emulate the Connoisseurs because we feel the need to do something when we get to the office (or home trading desk) every day. We look at stock price charts, listen to the latest market news on Bloomberg TV, and fool ourselves into believing we could add value from making a few small trades here and there. It is very hard to do nothing but focus on the same handful of companies every year; only researching new ideas on the side.

Many of us, seeing we have made a profit of 40% in one of our stocks, start actively looking for another company to invest the money into – instead of leaving it invested. This is precisely why lots of investors never become very successful.”

Every multi-bagger will have long periods (even years) of stagnation as fundamentals backfill, old shareholders get bored, and new shareholders enter. Just like a fine wine, sustainable multi-baggers often take their time to ascend and develop. If you’re invested in great businesses that continue to grow and earn more money, don’t let lulls in stock price and boredom scare you out of them.

https://microcapclub.com.../01/the-art-of-holding/


KQ is definitely what is being discussed here

Must be given "Long-term revenue and earnings growth with little to no dilution."
As we have seen KQ's revenues have been rising, earnings even more so. And no dilution of the shareholding.


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
obiero
#1746 Posted : Tuesday, May 21, 2019 12:43:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,389
Location: nairobi
rwitre wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT

The Art of Holding


Stocks rarely perform in the time frames we predict, and it’s why the market only works for investors that have a long-term portfolio focus. Performance is never linear, up and to the right, year after year. You sometimes have to hold onto a position for a few years before it goes up 100% in 3 months.

“I’m accustomed to hanging around with a stock when the price is going nowhere. Most of the money I make is in the third or fourth year that I’ve owned something.” – Peter Lynch

Here is a real-life example: I started buying a company I own today in early 2012 when it was at $0.35-0.40 per share. As my conviction grew I bought more and by mid- 2014 the stock hit $2.00 per share. Today (January 2017), the stock is still at $2.00 per share. Yes, I’m up considerably from my average cost basis but this company has been dead money for 2.5 years. Years!

How do I know if I’m right in holding versus just being entrenched in endowment bias?

Let’s get back to some first principles. Sustainable multi-baggers have three characteristics: Long-term revenue and earnings growth with little to no dilution. When you are holding onto a position ask yourself – Is this business growing and making more money per share than it did a year ago, two years ago? In my real-life example above the company’s business is almost double the size it was 2.5 years ago. Yes, the stock hasn’t gone anywhere but the business is doing really well. I have no problem holding this stock. If the business wasn’t performing, I would sell. Successful investors can differentiate business performance from stock performance and can take advantage of those investors who can’t.

“I don’t want to spend my time trying to earn a lot of little profits. I want very, very big profits that I’m ready to wait for.” – Phil Fisher

In the book, The Art of Execution, portfolio manager Lee Freeman-Shor invests $25-$150 million ($1+ billion total) in 45 of the world’s top investors. His instructions to them were simple as there was just one rule. They could only invest in their ten best ideas. Over several years he tracked their positions, trades, performance and was amazed at what he saw. He identified both good and bad habits and divided the investors into groups – Rabbits, Assassins, Hunters, Raiders, and the most successful group, the Connoisseurs.

“The most successful investors I worked with, those who made the most money, all had one thing in common: the presence of a couple of big winners in their portfolios. Any approach that does not embrace the possibility of winning big is doomed.” – Lee Freeman-Shor

In this excerpt, Lee Freeman-Shor talks about one of the attributes of Connoisseurs.

“One of the key requirements of staying invested in a big winner is to have (or cultivate) a high boredom threshold.

Meeting some of my Connoisseurs could be very, very boring because nothing ever changed. They would talk about the same stocks they had been invested in for the past five years or longer. On the days I had a meeting scheduled with a Connoisseur, I sometimes struggled to get out of bed.

The fact is, most of us will find it difficult to emulate the Connoisseurs because we feel the need to do something when we get to the office (or home trading desk) every day. We look at stock price charts, listen to the latest market news on Bloomberg TV, and fool ourselves into believing we could add value from making a few small trades here and there. It is very hard to do nothing but focus on the same handful of companies every year; only researching new ideas on the side.

Many of us, seeing we have made a profit of 40% in one of our stocks, start actively looking for another company to invest the money into – instead of leaving it invested. This is precisely why lots of investors never become very successful.”

Every multi-bagger will have long periods (even years) of stagnation as fundamentals backfill, old shareholders get bored, and new shareholders enter. Just like a fine wine, sustainable multi-baggers often take their time to ascend and develop. If you’re invested in great businesses that continue to grow and earn more money, don’t let lulls in stock price and boredom scare you out of them.

https://microcapclub.com.../01/the-art-of-holding/


KQ is definitely what is being discussed here

Must be given "Long-term revenue and earnings growth with little to no dilution."
As we have seen KQ's revenues have been rising, earnings even more so. And no dilution of the shareholding.


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Hehe.. Soon all shall be understood
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 2,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KNRE 100,000 ABP 2.90; KQ 221,100 ABP 12.68
VituVingiSana
#1747 Posted : Monday, July 01, 2019 11:10:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,526
Location: Nairobi
A link to the list she is referring to?

"A list of Kenya’s wealthiest families was published recently..."
https://www.businessdail...177036-fvbfr7/index.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
LevelUpLegal
#1748 Posted : Monday, July 22, 2019 6:16:00 PM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 5/23/2019
Posts: 5
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Foreign-net-inflows-back-NSE/4259442-5008914-f3mi62/index.html

Mini bull run coming


Reliable sources indicate CS Treasury is on the ropes, a few more blows he will on the floor. CBK gov will struggle for term 2. Get rid of those 2 and yeah a bull run will comesmile smile



Look at this genius,

kazi kwetu mawakili. Wish I was defending the bunch. I would have given each one in this forum a million bob. hehehe
wukan
#1749 Posted : Tuesday, July 23, 2019 11:22:59 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,228
LevelUpLegal wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Foreign-net-inflows-back-NSE/4259442-5008914-f3mi62/index.html

Mini bull run coming


Reliable sources indicate CS Treasury is on the ropes, a few more blows he will on the floor. CBK gov will struggle for term 2. Get rid of those 2 and yeah a bull run will comesmile smile



Look at this genius,

kazi kwetu mawakili. Wish I was defending the bunch. I would have given each one in this forum a million bob. hehehe


unfortunately wazua nowadays is always behind the curve. Very reactive instead of predictive like it used to.
Swenani
#1750 Posted : Tuesday, July 23, 2019 11:46:02 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,040
Location: Vacuum
LevelUpLegal wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Foreign-net-inflows-back-NSE/4259442-5008914-f3mi62/index.html

Mini bull run coming


Reliable sources indicate CS Treasury is on the ropes, a few more blows he will on the floor. CBK gov will struggle for term 2. Get rid of those 2 and yeah a bull run will comesmile smile



Look at this genius,

kazi kwetu mawakili. Wish I was defending the bunch. I would have given each one in this forum a million bob. hehehe

Applause Applause Applause Applause
Poverty is the root of all evil
VituVingiSana
#1751 Posted : Tuesday, July 23, 2019 3:10:09 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,526
Location: Nairobi
LevelUpLegal wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Foreign-net-inflows-back-NSE/4259442-5008914-f3mi62/index.html

Mini bull run coming


Reliable sources indicate CS Treasury is on the ropes, a few more blows he will on the floor. CBK gov will struggle for term 2. Get rid of those 2 and yeah a bull run will comesmile smile



Look at this genius,

kazi kwetu mawakili. Wish I was defending the bunch. I would have given each one in this forum a million bob. hehehe
@wukan was on the ball. When did he post it?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#1752 Posted : Wednesday, July 24, 2019 9:18:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,632
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
LevelUpLegal wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Foreign-net-inflows-back-NSE/4259442-5008914-f3mi62/index.html

Mini bull run coming


Reliable sources indicate CS Treasury is on the ropes, a few more blows he will on the floor. CBK gov will struggle for term 2. Get rid of those 2 and yeah a bull run will comesmile smile



Look at this genius,

kazi kwetu mawakili. Wish I was defending the bunch. I would have given each one in this forum a million bob. hehehe
@wukan was on the ball. When did he post it?


Cosmetic dressing.No corruption fighting here.
wukan
#1753 Posted : Wednesday, July 24, 2019 10:11:47 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,228
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
LevelUpLegal wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Foreign-net-inflows-back-NSE/4259442-5008914-f3mi62/index.html

Mini bull run coming


Reliable sources indicate CS Treasury is on the ropes, a few more blows he will on the floor. CBK gov will struggle for term 2. Get rid of those 2 and yeah a bull run will comesmile smile



Look at this genius,

kazi kwetu mawakili. Wish I was defending the bunch. I would have given each one in this forum a million bob. hehehe
@wukan was on the ball. When did he post it?


Cosmetic dressing.No corruption fighting here.


Yup no corruption here but more like HR and KT were just shitty negotiators. They just couldn't walk away from a bad deal. It's like they were 'captured' by international banksters and junk bond traders. I can smell some US indictments.

Next treasury CS should be a lawyer someone with a backbone to walk away from bad deals and who can renegotiate debt. I would go with Githae lawyer, good experience as finance minister, international exposure as diplomat
watesh
#1754 Posted : Wednesday, July 24, 2019 3:49:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 754
Location: Kenya
Kenya shilling on a freefall. 107 at the counter
rwitre
#1755 Posted : Wednesday, July 31, 2019 5:51:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 377
Location: Nairobi
Man the market has been boring of late. Low trading volumes. Anyway...prices seemed to have plateaued and selling pressure nearing exhaustion.

Will spend H2 averaging down on some counters where the bleeding has been extensive in readiness for the next dividend season.

Current paper losses on entire portfolio stand at 40%. (Not accounting for dividends earned. Those ones were promptly spent on life's vanities Laughing out loudly)

Tupatane FY 2019.
Ericsson
#1756 Posted : Wednesday, July 31, 2019 6:56:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,632
Location: NAIROBI
rwitre wrote:
Man the market has been boring of late. Low trading volumes. Anyway...prices seemed to have plateaued and selling pressure nearing exhaustion.

Will spend H2 averaging down on some counters where the bleeding has been extensive in readiness for the next dividend season.

Current paper losses on entire portfolio stand at 40%. (Not accounting for dividends earned. Those ones were promptly spent on life's vanities Laughing out loudly)

Tupatane FY 2019.

Expect more bleeding
rwitre
#1757 Posted : Wednesday, July 31, 2019 8:24:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 377
Location: Nairobi
Emerging Markets to benefit from Fed cutting rates

Some good news on the horizon

Quote:


With the big Fed meeting this week, there continues to be some debate about whether they will cut by 25 basis points or 50.

But the direction matters more than the magnitude.

It signals the end of the Fed’s “policy damage” to emerging markets.

Higher U.S. rates have meant a stronger dollar. And with the economy moving north, the dollar moving north and rates moving north, global capital has moved toward the U.S. — and away from riskier emerging markets.

It's not that the U.S. economy can't handle a 2.5% Fed Funds rate, it's that the EM world can't handle it (in the current post-financial crisis economic environment).

As the Dallas Fed put it last year: “Emerging economies have suffered a general decline in forecast GDP growth … The tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies, both through rate hikes and other policy actions such as forward guidance, results in capital outflows from emerging economies with low reserves relative to their foreign debt.”

This official direction change from the Fed should weaken the dollar. Moreover, a key piece in the continuation of the global economic recovery will likely be a weaker dollar.

It will drive a more balanced U.S. and global economy, and it will reflect strength in emerging markets (i.e. capital flows to emerging markets).



Kenya is ranked third most attractive financial market in Africa after South Africa and Botswana, so stands to benefit from the capital flight.

Stronger fiscal policy in Kenya with the changes at Treasury, on-going clamp down on the corrupt (its psychological impact on investors having more trust in the forward direction of the economy, not whether or not the cases will actually be successfully prosecuted), will be a boost for the NSE.

Blue chips are heavily discounted.

The tide will turn.

Start taking up positions.
murchr
#1758 Posted : Wednesday, July 31, 2019 10:51:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 14,948
rwitre wrote:
Emerging Markets to benefit from Fed cutting rates

Some good news on the horizon

Quote:


With the big Fed meeting this week, there continues to be some debate about whether they will cut by 25 basis points or 50.

But the direction matters more than the magnitude.

It signals the end of the Fed’s “policy damage” to emerging markets.

Higher U.S. rates have meant a stronger dollar. And with the economy moving north, the dollar moving north and rates moving north, global capital has moved toward the U.S. — and away from riskier emerging markets.

It's not that the U.S. economy can't handle a 2.5% Fed Funds rate, it's that the EM world can't handle it (in the current post-financial crisis economic environment).

As the Dallas Fed put it last year: “Emerging economies have suffered a general decline in forecast GDP growth … The tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies, both through rate hikes and other policy actions such as forward guidance, results in capital outflows from emerging economies with low reserves relative to their foreign debt.”

This official direction change from the Fed should weaken the dollar. Moreover, a key piece in the continuation of the global economic recovery will likely be a weaker dollar.

It will drive a more balanced U.S. and global economy, and it will reflect strength in emerging markets (i.e. capital flows to emerging markets).



Kenya is ranked third most attractive financial market in Africa after South Africa and Botswana, so stands to benefit from the capital flight.

Stronger fiscal policy in Kenya with the changes at Treasury, on-going clamp down on the corrupt (its psychological impact on investors having more trust in the forward direction of the economy, not whether or not the cases will actually be successfully prosecuted), will be a boost for the NSE.

Blue chips are heavily discounted.

The tide will turn.

Start taking up positions.


Powell crashed the USD.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Ericsson
#1759 Posted : Thursday, August 01, 2019 10:03:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,632
Location: NAIROBI
murchr wrote:
rwitre wrote:
Emerging Markets to benefit from Fed cutting rates

Some good news on the horizon

Quote:


With the big Fed meeting this week, there continues to be some debate about whether they will cut by 25 basis points or 50.

But the direction matters more than the magnitude.

It signals the end of the Fed’s “policy damage” to emerging markets.

Higher U.S. rates have meant a stronger dollar. And with the economy moving north, the dollar moving north and rates moving north, global capital has moved toward the U.S. — and away from riskier emerging markets.

It's not that the U.S. economy can't handle a 2.5% Fed Funds rate, it's that the EM world can't handle it (in the current post-financial crisis economic environment).

As the Dallas Fed put it last year: “Emerging economies have suffered a general decline in forecast GDP growth … The tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies, both through rate hikes and other policy actions such as forward guidance, results in capital outflows from emerging economies with low reserves relative to their foreign debt.”

This official direction change from the Fed should weaken the dollar. Moreover, a key piece in the continuation of the global economic recovery will likely be a weaker dollar.

It will drive a more balanced U.S. and global economy, and it will reflect strength in emerging markets (i.e. capital flows to emerging markets).



Kenya is ranked third most attractive financial market in Africa after South Africa and Botswana, so stands to benefit from the capital flight.

Stronger fiscal policy in Kenya with the changes at Treasury, on-going clamp down on the corrupt (its psychological impact on investors having more trust in the forward direction of the economy, not whether or not the cases will actually be successfully prosecuted), will be a boost for the NSE.

Blue chips are heavily discounted.

The tide will turn.

Start taking up positions.


Powell crashed the USD.


The USD is still strong.Pound and Euro are weakening
cnn
#1760 Posted : Friday, August 02, 2019 6:58:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,563
Ericsson wrote:
rwitre wrote:
Man the market has been boring of late. Low trading volumes. Anyway...prices seemed to have plateaued and selling pressure nearing exhaustion.

Will spend H2 averaging down on some counters where the bleeding has been extensive in readiness for the next dividend season.

Current paper losses on entire portfolio stand at 40%. (Not accounting for dividends earned. Those ones were promptly spent on life's vanities Laughing out loudly)

Tupatane FY 2019.

Expect more bleeding

NSE 20 down to 2587
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