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KCB buy buy buy
gesowan
#1 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 5:10:43 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/6/2010
Posts: 289
Reiterate BUY — new TP Ksh51.00: our forecast trim is more than compensated by changes in macro related valuation assumptions as we cut our risk-free rate by 50bps to 9.25%, which leaves us with a new target price of Ksh51.00 (Ksh41.00 previously). At FY13E P/E of c.9.5x and P/B of c2.1x, we could accept some room for debate on KCB’s multiples, which we believe our conservative estimates should help set aside. We continue to see value in the stock at these levels and reiterate our BUY recommendation.


AS advised by the experts
Cde Monomotapa
#2 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 7:28:05 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,962
gesowan wrote:
Reiterate BUY — new TP Ksh51.00: our forecast trim is more than compensated by changes in macro related valuation assumptions as we cut our risk-free rate by 50bps to 9.25%, which leaves us with a new target price of Ksh51.00 (Ksh41.00 previously). At FY13E P/E of c.9.5x and P/B of c2.1x, we could accept some room for debate on KCB’s multiples, which we believe our conservative estimates should help set aside. We continue to see value in the stock at these levels and reiterate our BUY recommendation.


AS advised by the experts

Interesting. In total agreement on the 'macro related valuation' bit as it is only fair to say that work in KE fully* kicked off post-April. Banking & the general econ. will be best measured after Q3, 2013.
Cde Monomotapa
#3 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 7:34:55 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,962
Btw, KCB is set to recieve a further $150M from IFC for on-lending if I recall well. Combine that resource boost with ongoing 'lean-mean' initiatives &...#static#
Mukiri
#4 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 10:21:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,198
@Hisah said something about Equity being a better bargain?d'oh!

Proverbs 19:21
Ericsson
#5 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 6:57:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,880
Location: NAIROBI
KCB has also made it big in the real estate sector with this deal as the project financier;
http://www.nation.co.ke/...50/-/lowrwf/-/index.html
mwekez@ji
#6 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 9:11:26 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,056
Mukiri wrote:
@Hisah said something about Equity being a better bargain?d'oh!


From a traders perspective, @hisah has it
Ericsson
#7 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 9:25:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,880
Location: NAIROBI
In FY2013 KCB will trump Equity in terms of profitability.
Hstorically equity beats KCB in the Q1 but in the remaining quarters KCB takes the mantle.
hisah
#8 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 10:06:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
@Hisah said something about Equity being a better bargain?d'oh!


From a traders perspective, @hisah has it

Boarded @28.50 after dumping KCB @38.50 on result release. I expected at least a 2/- div pay and 1.95 was not a good sign. I expect member to pay more div than simba plus outperform it as the most profitable bank. That should see member's share price post higher capital gains than simba. Then add the div pay. Already simba has stated no more fat div pays.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mwekez@ji
#9 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 10:08:17 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,056
Ericsson wrote:
In FY2013 KCB will trump Equity in terms of profitability.
Hstorically equity beats KCB in the Q1 but in the remaining quarters KCB takes the mantle.


@Ericsson, in that history, KCB only beat Equity in Q2 and Q3, .... Equity beat KCB in Q1, Q4 and FY2012. .... So, using your logic, in FY2013, just like in FY12, EQUITY should trump KCB in terms of profitability.
KulaRaha
#10 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 10:18:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,357
I understand the new MD spends his time walking around threatening to fire everyone...there's even grafitti in the loos saying "you're fired".

I wonder how this new style of management will affect results...
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
kizee1
#11 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 10:19:34 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
KulaRaha wrote:
I understand the new MD spends his time walking around threatening to fire everyone...there's even grafitti in the loos saying "you're fired".

I wonder how this new style of management will affect results...



peter principle in action
Ericsson
#12 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 10:33:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,880
Location: NAIROBI
mwekez@ji;In FY2011,2010,2009 KCB trumped up Equity.
Lets wait for the numbers and then analyse.Figures don't lie.
mwekez@ji
#13 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 10:58:47 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,056
Ericsson wrote:
mwekez@ji;In FY2011,2010,2009 KCB trumped up Equity.
Lets wait for the numbers and then analyse.Figures don't lie.


And you have now deliberately ignored FY 2012. ... Q1 2013 numbers are already out. Numbers don't lie
Ericsson
#14 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 11:08:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,880
Location: NAIROBI
FY2013 numbers will tell the truth
mwekez@ji
#15 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 11:20:01 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,056
Ericsson wrote:
FY2013 numbers will tell the truth


Cool. Will continue to follow the money #MakingMoney2013
maka
#16 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 1:31:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 10,804
Location: Nairobi
KulaRaha wrote:
I understand the new MD spends his time walking around threatening to fire everyone...there's even grafitti in the loos saying "you're fired".

I wonder how this new style of management will affect results...

true...
possunt quia posse videntur
mwekez@ji
#17 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 2:42:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,056
kizee1 wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
I understand the new MD spends his time walking around threatening to fire everyone...there's even grafitti in the loos saying "you're fired".

I wonder how this new style of management will affect results...



peter principle in action


Same case at NBK. I hear munir the new ceo keeps asking the employees "give me 3 reasons why i should not fire you right now¿!¿"
ZZE123
#18 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 2:57:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/21/2008
Posts: 2,442
KulaRaha wrote:
I understand the new MD spends his time walking around threatening to fire everyone...there's even grafitti in the loos saying "you're fired".

I wonder how this new style of management will affect results...

I sat in a social forum with him and he said in one year the oldest manager at KCB will be 40yrs old.
The man who marries a beautiful woman, and the farmer who grows corn by the roadside have the same problem
mwekez@ji
#19 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 2:59:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,056
mwekez@ji wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
mwekez@ji;In FY2011,2010,2009 KCB trumped up Equity.
Lets wait for the numbers and then analyse.Figures don't lie.


And you have now deliberately ignored FY 2012. ... Q1 2013 numbers are already out. Numbers don't lie


also to note is that all those past years (2011 kurudi nyuma), KCB was making more money than Equity. 2012 was a turnaround for Equity and Q1 2013 has kept the pace .... now waiting for Q2 2013
youcan'tstopusnow
#20 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 3:00:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
mwekez@ji wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
I understand the new MD spends his time walking around threatening to fire everyone...there's even grafitti in the loos saying "you're fired".

I wonder how this new style of management will affect results...



peter principle in action


Same case at NBK. I hear munir the new ceo keeps asking the employees "give me 3 reasons why i should not fire you right now¿!¿"


Say what?Laughing out loudly
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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