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120 Pages«<116117118119120>
Kenya Economy Watch
lochaz-index
#2341 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2019 10:02:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 997
Ericsson wrote:
How State House Order For Parastatals To Surrender Money To Treasury Will Cripple Economy – David Ndii
In August this year, State corporations were ordered to surrender cash balances in their bank accounts to the treasury.

The order was meant to reduce government’s cost of borrowing which has ballooned in the last six years during the reign of President Uhuru Kenyatta.

However, most of the money could have been used to pay loans which matured between July and October, with the Treasury indicating that it used at least Ksh276.17 billion to repay maturing loans, a 41.55 percent jump from Ksh195.11 billion in the previous four months.
Debt repayments were the second single largest government spend after recurrent expenses such as salaries, allowances and administrative expenses which gobbled up nearly Ksh306.53 billion.

According to economist David Ndii, the act of government drawing monies from parastatals could adversely affect the economy, and service delivery.

“While the memo suggests that some of this money will settle pending bills, far from solving the problem, it has now transferred it to parastatals whose suppliers will now be at the mercy of the exchequer. Expect some parastatals to default on their suppliers in coming days,” says Ndii.

If the money goes to pay foreign debts, Ndii predicts that there will be little circulation of money in the country, which is important for the growth of any economy.
“Because the key driver of the government’s financial crisis is foreign debt, part of the money confiscated from parastatals is going to pay the foreign debt. Instead of circulating in the economy it is going to China. Another body blow to an already battered economy,” he adds.

Treasury bills (T-bills) maturities between July and September stood at Ksh346.9 billion, with another Ksh222.5 billion due for payment between October and December.

“The confiscation of t-bills/bonds is for all intents of purposes, a default action. It does not matter that these are state corporations, these debt instruments backed by law, and the government/debtor has suspended law. It’s a case of might is right, impunity,” says Ndii.
“When it gets more desperate as it will, what will stop it doing the same to other vulnerable investors eg. public pension funds? By resorting to such a draconian action, it has exposed that its more distressed than its been letting on. Expect investors to take note.”
Kenya’s public debt surged closer to Ksh6 trillion at the end of June after Treasury borrowed an additional Ksh770 billion in 12 months.

Normally, the Treasury banks with the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) hence the move will see large chunks of money withdrawn from the commercial banks.

This regime is really a piece of work. At no point so far has GoK shown signs of changing course despite the numerous and obvious red flags along their ruinous path. The only buck stop here appears to be social unrest...till then it's full throttle in the wrong direction.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#2342 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2019 10:05:46 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 997
rwitre wrote:
tandich wrote:
How does one immunise their investments, even if partially, from the impending gloom?


3 options, based on risk appetite:

Guaranteed safety: Buy gold.
Safety without liquidity: Buy land
Liquidity with risk: Buy bitcoin

Don't be too sure on real estate, alot of pain awaits. I'm bearish both gold and bitcoin in the short term.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
tycho
#2343 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2019 10:26:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,580
Location: Nairobi
It is getting clearer that Kenya has more investors than entrepreneurs. If we look at the statistics we find over 80% of businesses being informal. Stats by KNBS indicate that most informal businesses are in retailing. Other formal businesses are replications of already existing businesses.

On the other hand, the Entrepreneurship classes offered to students are not about the nuances of Baptiste Say and other thinkers who have elaborated on enterpreneurship. Instead it's note about how to go about opening a business.

If these statements are true, then we have no way out except more debt and conflict.
Ericsson
#2344 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2019 11:13:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,737
Location: NAIROBI
BOC Kenya Plc - Profit Warning Announcement.

"Supply to several PUBLIC SECTOR customers with invoices that have remained unpaid for periods significantly above the allowed credit period..led to additional DOUBTFUL DEBT provisions."
whiteowl
#2345 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2019 12:23:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,375
Location: Bohemian Grove
Word on the street is that there are at least 3 banks under CBK watch for insider lending that breaches set regulations. Any one who knows the banks that might collapse?
Ericsson
#2346 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2019 12:41:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,737
Location: NAIROBI
whiteowl wrote:
Word on the street is that there are at least 3 banks under CBK watch for insider lending that breaches set regulations. Any one who knows the banks that might collapse?



A cheque will be delivered and the story will die
Fyatu
#2347 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2019 12:42:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,666
Location: Nakuru
MugundaMan wrote:
Laughing out loudly

Dont run like a coward bradza.
- you didnt have to say it, you have implied that you HATE chinese imports.
- oooo imports are from china
- oooo no local companies because of Chinese companies
- oooo the import export ratio favours China,


My braddah we CANNOT develop without China's expertise and imports.
Look at your friend Ndii. Went alllllll the way to Oxford and instead of bringing home technology to build factories and cars from Britain he came back with miwani ya kamba tu na stori mingi kwa gazeti worth zero.

BURE GHABISA!!!!



Oxford Ndii and his miwani ya kamba should get laid awache ku troll HE Uhuru and his family huko twirrer. Blah blah blah mingi hatutaki kusikia
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Ericsson
#2348 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2019 12:58:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,737
Location: NAIROBI
China Aerospace Construction Group (CACG) will construct the 40 km, 400kV Isinya-konza power transmission line. China Exim Bank will fund the project that is set for completion within 30 months.

The power project includes the construction of four 250km high voltage power transmission and distribution lines. In addition, the project will see the expansion of eight power transformation stations.

The new transmission and distribution line will power Konza and the surrounding counties such as Machakos, Kajiado, and Makueni.
wukan
#2349 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2019 1:05:51 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,245
tandich wrote:
How does one immunise their investments, even if partially, from the impending gloom?


The malaise can go on for a long time. Haiti has been at it for 200 years, Argentina has been on burst burst cycles for 50+ years.

The last time GoK did a similar binge on infrastructure was around 1920-1927. The economy never recovered from the debt binge until the 2nd world war. It took the Swynnerton Plan to fundamentally restructure the economy to get things going again.

In between Happy valley manenos happened which was the equivalent of current parte after parte. Bro Enjoy life, plan for retirement-investments wachia wajukuu

Everything ultimately rises and falls on leadership. Britain was on the malaise in 1960's and 1970's till Margaret Thatcher came and took the hard bold decisions.

If you look at the current kenyan leadership no one has the brains or balls to get us out of the quagmire. So for now let's continue with parte after parte
Superprime1
#2350 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2019 3:33:45 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/2/2018
Posts: 241
wukan wrote:
tandich wrote:
How does one immunise their investments, even if partially, from the impending gloom?


The malaise can go on for a long time. Haiti has been at it for 200 years, Argentina has been on burst burst cycles for 50+ years.

The last time GoK did a similar binge on infrastructure was around 1920-1927. The economy never recovered from the debt binge until the 2nd world war. It took the Swynnerton Plan to fundamentally restructure the economy to get things going again.

In between Happy valley manenos happened which was the equivalent of current parte after parte. Bro Enjoy life, plan for retirement-investments wachia wajukuu

Everything ultimately rises and falls on leadership. Britain was on the malaise in 1960's and 1970's till Margaret Thatcher came and took the hard bold decisions.

If you look at the current kenyan leadership no one has the brains or balls to get us out of the quagmire. So for now let's continue with parte after parte

I like the history! Well said.
xtina
#2351 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2019 8:44:01 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 272
wukan wrote:
tandich wrote:
How does one immunise their investments, even if partially, from the impending gloom?


The malaise can go on for a long time. Haiti has been at it for 200 years, Argentina has been on burst burst cycles for 50+ years.

The last time GoK did a similar binge on infrastructure was around 1920-1927. The economy never recovered from the debt binge until the 2nd world war. It took the Swynnerton Plan to fundamentally restructure the economy to get things going again.

In between Happy valley manenos happened which was the equivalent of current parte after parte. Bro Enjoy life, plan for retirement-investments wachia wajukuu

Everything ultimately rises and falls on leadership. Britain was on the malaise in 1960's and 1970's till Margaret Thatcher came and took the hard bold decisions.

If you look at the current kenyan leadership no one has the brains or balls to get us out of the quagmire. So for now let's continue with parte after parte


You sure are a very knowledgeable person...
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2352 Posted : Thursday, November 21, 2019 9:28:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,065
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
xtina wrote:
wukan wrote:
tandich wrote:
How does one immunise their investments, even if partially, from the impending gloom?


The malaise can go on for a long time. Haiti has been at it for 200 years, Argentina has been on burst burst cycles for 50+ years.

The last time GoK did a similar binge on infrastructure was around 1920-1927. The economy never recovered from the debt binge until the 2nd world war. It took the Swynnerton Plan to fundamentally restructure the economy to get things going again.

In between Happy valley manenos happened which was the equivalent of current parte after parte. Bro Enjoy life, plan for retirement-investments wachia wajukuu

Everything ultimately rises and falls on leadership. Britain was on the malaise in 1960's and 1970's till Margaret Thatcher came and took the hard bold decisions.

If you look at the current kenyan leadership no one has the brains or balls to get us out of the quagmire. So for now let's continue with parte after parte


You sure are a very knowledgeable person...


True that. @Wukan has just taken us back to events preceding the Great depression of the late 20s all the way to our current leadership. Funny enough, the bible, in the old testament, has chronicles of Kings. the one i like the most is when the Kingship moved to a young person, who refused to listen to the counsel of the aged (like Mzee Kibaki in matters economics) and instead listened to his fellow agemates. You can imagine the kind of advice he would get.
By the way, kibaki had an economic counsel in place, during his reign.
Markets
KulaRaha
#2353 Posted : Thursday, November 21, 2019 10:05:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,455
I would not call our present Government "Leadership". It's actually far from it.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Ericsson
#2354 Posted : Thursday, November 21, 2019 2:27:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,737
Location: NAIROBI
AAK SAYS NO TO THE EXPRESSWAY
After many consultations & presentations, including one from KeNHA; AAK - whose members are planners, architects, QS, Engineers, project managers, landscape arch, etc. have made the informed decision to petition KeNHA to stop the project.
kawi254
#2355 Posted : Thursday, November 21, 2019 3:17:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2015
Posts: 352
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
AAK SAYS NO TO THE EXPRESSWAY
After many consultations & presentations, including one from KeNHA; AAK - whose members are planners, architects, QS, Engineers, project managers, landscape arch, etc. have made the informed decision to petition KeNHA to stop the project.


When they [AAK] attended the KeNHA meeting the Public Participation check box was ticked. This Govt listens to nobody and will bulldoze it's way through.
lochaz-index
#2356 Posted : Thursday, November 21, 2019 4:10:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 997
wukan wrote:
tandich wrote:
How does one immunise their investments, even if partially, from the impending gloom?


The malaise can go on for a long time. Haiti has been at it for 200 years, Argentina has been on burst burst cycles for 50+ years.

The last time GoK did a similar binge on infrastructure was around 1920-1927. The economy never recovered from the debt binge until the 2nd world war. It took the Swynnerton Plan to fundamentally restructure the economy to get things going again.

In between Happy valley manenos happened which was the equivalent of current parte after parte. Bro Enjoy life, plan for retirement-investments wachia wajukuu

Everything ultimately rises and falls on leadership. Britain was on the malaise in 1960's and 1970's till Margaret Thatcher came and took the hard bold decisions.

If you look at the current kenyan leadership no one has the brains or balls to get us out of the quagmire. So for now let's continue with parte after parte

I see you are on a mission to kill the perma-optimists here who keep hoping and praying - but mostly praying - for some kind of economic miracle to surmount the malaise.

I partly disagree on the point of everything hinging on leadership and by extension politics. The social and economic variables always move way ahead of the political situation prevailing at any one point. Politics is a therefore a consequence not necessarily the determinant.

For example, that is why despite the rapprochement nothing changed course including the NSE. Further afield in SA, even after booting Zuma the xenophobia continues and I suspect little to no reform will be acoomplished by Ramaphosa. In Zim, after the departure of Mugabe the monetary experiments and political represssion continue unabated since the social fabric(social psyche/integration) and economic variables haven't changed one bit. On the other end of the spectrum Botswana and Ghana(save for their debt appetite) are chugging along just fine despite the political changeovers. Politics/leadership is just a case of the tail pretending to wag the dog.

The key for KE as is for many African countries is demographics. That is whether they will be able to harness the demographic dividend of a young population or will it turn into a never ending spiral of social upheaval.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Ericsson
#2357 Posted : Thursday, November 21, 2019 4:36:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,737
Location: NAIROBI
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
tandich wrote:
How does one immunise their investments, even if partially, from the impending gloom?


The malaise can go on for a long time. Haiti has been at it for 200 years, Argentina has been on burst burst cycles for 50+ years.

The last time GoK did a similar binge on infrastructure was around 1920-1927. The economy never recovered from the debt binge until the 2nd world war. It took the Swynnerton Plan to fundamentally restructure the economy to get things going again.

In between Happy valley manenos happened which was the equivalent of current parte after parte. Bro Enjoy life, plan for retirement-investments wachia wajukuu

Everything ultimately rises and falls on leadership. Britain was on the malaise in 1960's and 1970's till Margaret Thatcher came and took the hard bold decisions.

If you look at the current kenyan leadership no one has the brains or balls to get us out of the quagmire. So for now let's continue with parte after parte

I see you are on a mission to kill the perma-optimists here who keep hoping and praying - but mostly praying - for some kind of economic miracle to surmount the malaise.

I partly disagree on the point of everything hinging on leadership and by extension politics. The social and economic variables always move way ahead of the political situation prevailing at any one point. Politics is a therefore a consequence not necessarily the determinant.

For example, that is why despite the rapprochement nothing changed course including the NSE. Further afield in SA, even after booting Zuma the xenophobia continues and I suspect little to no reform will be acoomplished by Ramaphosa. In Zim, after the departure of Mugabe the monetary experiments and political represssion continue unabated since the social fabric(social psyche/integration) and economic variables haven't changed one bit. On the other end of the spectrum Botswana and Ghana(save for their debt appetite) are chugging along just fine despite the political changeovers. Politics/leadership is just a case of the tail pretending to wag the dog.

The key for KE as is for many African countries is demographics. That is whether they will be able to harness the demographic dividend of a young population or will it turn into a never ending spiral of social upheaval.


A revolution of the people against the leadership is the solution
nairobby
#2358 Posted : Thursday, November 21, 2019 4:44:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/18/2019
Posts: 161
Location: kenya
Fyatu wrote:
MugundaMan wrote:
Laughing out loudly

Dont run like a coward bradza.
- you didnt have to say it, you have implied that you HATE chinese imports.
- oooo imports are from china
- oooo no local companies because of Chinese companies
- oooo the import export ratio favours China,


My braddah we CANNOT develop without China's expertise and imports.
Look at your friend Ndii. Went alllllll the way to Oxford and instead of bringing home technology to build factories and cars from Britain he came back with miwani ya kamba tu na stori mingi kwa gazeti worth zero.

BURE GHABISA!!!!



Oxford Ndii and his miwani ya kamba should get laid awache ku troll HE Uhuru and his family huko twirrer. Blah blah blah mingi hatutaki kusikia


Where did @Mugundaman go to lolLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Dumbest chap on this platform.
Rahatupu
#2359 Posted : Friday, November 22, 2019 5:09:19 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 1,946
Location: matano manne
Monk wrote:
rwitre wrote:
tandich wrote:
How does one immunise their investments, even if partially, from the impending gloom?


3 options, based on risk appetite:

Guaranteed safety: Buy gold.
Safety without liquidity: Buy land
Liquidity with risk: Buy bitcoin


Liquidity with minimal risk: Buy USD


The Japanese Yen is a safe heaven. Like gold
tycho
#2360 Posted : Friday, November 22, 2019 10:32:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,580
Location: Nairobi
Leadership is important, demographics are important, but the most important thing is to understand that the basic unit of the economy is the human individual's physical and psychological structure. This is the base of all economics that we have been overlooking.

Call it 'humanism' in its most ancient meaning. If we can invest in humanism, then we can turn clay into Gold. You can imagine what would happen if we were to produce gold even at mashinani.
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