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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
obiero
#1 Posted : Sunday, October 13, 2013 3:18:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,658
Location: nairobi
finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M
COOP 5,500; KCB 2,500; KQ 95,000
obiero
#2 Posted : Sunday, October 13, 2013 7:27:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,658
Location: nairobi
HY Results Expectations set at AGM. I expect full turnaround with return to profitability at KES 1.05B for H1 2013
[/quote]
COOP 5,500; KCB 2,500; KQ 95,000
mlennyma
#3 Posted : Sunday, October 13, 2013 9:13:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,864
Location: nairobi
How much would hfck pay in dividends if it was making the profits other banks are making??it still beats them in dividend yields despite their huge profits.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Banker
#4 Posted : Sunday, October 13, 2013 9:59:08 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 4/1/2013
Posts: 20
obiero wrote:
finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M


@obiero, kindly allow me to throw a spanner in the works,

The magic card for KCB has always been its position as the banker for the biggest customer in Kenya i.e GoK. Within the industry, 2013 presented a game-changer through devolution and the funds that go with it. So who is banking for the counties ? Believe it or not, almost all banks were caught napping and it was left to two banks to fight for the spoils. KCB & COOP. KCB got the lion's share while coop got a number of the fattest accounts e.g. Nairobi & Narok.

Equity is joining lately and they have already bagged Embu county through an e-revenue solution.

The impact of these funds will be seen in Q.4.

Kausha
#5 Posted : Monday, October 14, 2013 5:34:02 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 801
Last time I checked, all countries operate principal accounts with PMG at Central Bank. Most of the money sits at Central Bank and encashed through KCB mostly but as a PMG account. The amounts going to machinani are for petty cash payments and the like. Large payments are paid from the CBK account just like ministries do.Nenda angalia.
guru267
#6 Posted : Monday, October 14, 2013 5:43:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,608
Location: Nairobi
Kausha wrote:
Last time I checked, all countries operate principal accounts with PMG at Central Bank. Most of the money sits at Central Bank and encashed through KCB mostly but as a PMG account. The amounts going to machinani are for petty cash payments and the like. Large payments are paid from the CBK account just like ministries do.Nenda angalia.


@Kausha so does CBK make these payments direct or through a bank??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
obiero
#7 Posted : Monday, October 14, 2013 7:50:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,658
Location: nairobi
guru267 wrote:
Kausha wrote:
Last time I checked, all countries operate principal accounts with PMG at Central Bank. Most of the money sits at Central Bank and encashed through KCB mostly but as a PMG account. The amounts going to machinani are for petty cash payments and the like. Large payments are paid from the CBK account just like ministries do.Nenda angalia.


@Kausha so does CBK make these payments direct or through a bank??

@guru in my estimation, large payments for capital expenditure do not go through banks
COOP 5,500; KCB 2,500; KQ 95,000
obiero
#8 Posted : Monday, October 14, 2013 8:21:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,658
Location: nairobi
For KCB to attain KES 17.5B similar to PBT of Q3 2012, then this would imply 42.3% profit gain. I doubt the likelihood of that happening hence prjection reserved 41.1 % which is still high. Expect tumbling of price if books are not cooked extremly well
COOP 5,500; KCB 2,500; KQ 95,000
mwekez@ji
#9 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2013 9:03:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,049
obiero
#10 Posted : Saturday, October 26, 2013 5:34:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,658
Location: nairobi
@mwekez@ji hope u dont get shocked by some of the big boy results.. they must dissapoint
COOP 5,500; KCB 2,500; KQ 95,000
Cde Monomotapa
#11 Posted : Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:14:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,960
According to the CBK Q3 'Wikileaks'

PROFITABILITY: The banking sector profit before tax for the quarter ended September 2013 decreased by 6.6 percent from Ksh. 33.2 billion in June 2013 quarter compared to Ksh. 31.0 billion for the quarter ending September 2013. Over the same period, total income stood at Ksh. 88.6 billion being a decrease of 4.1 percent from Ksh. 92.4 billion registered in the second quarter of 2013. The decline was partly attributed to the reduction in lending rates. Whilst total expenses decreased by 2.7 percent from Ksh. 59.2 billion in the June 2013 quarter to Ksh. 57.6 billion in the September 2013 quarter. The reduction in expenses was partly attributed to decline in interest paid on deposits. On an annual basis, the profitability of the sector increased by 14.5 percent to Ksh. 92.5 billion in September 2013 from the Ksh. 80.8 billion registered in September 2012.

http://www.centralbank.g...rdBankingsector2013.pdf

Looks like a U-shaped recovery scenario where increased NPLs (hence provisions) will be glossed over by increasing loan uptake & efficiencies/innovations. Declining rates appear to be the elephant in the room near-term. Especially for Kenya-only banks.

Seems results will be very meritorious this time round. Kaeni rada'.
obiero
#12 Posted : Sunday, October 27, 2013 4:10:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,658
Location: nairobi
@cde.. atleast we are in the same camp for once. the lion is wounded
COOP 5,500; KCB 2,500; KQ 95,000
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Sunday, October 27, 2013 11:05:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,908
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
According to the CBK Q3 'Wikileaks'

PROFITABILITY: The banking sector profit before tax for the quarter ended September 2013 decreased by 6.6 percent from Ksh. 33.2 billion in June 2013 quarter compared to Ksh. 31.0 billion for the quarter ending September 2013. Over the same period, total income stood at Ksh. 88.6 billion being a decrease of 4.1 percent from Ksh. 92.4 billion registered in the second quarter of 2013. The decline was partly attributed to the reduction in lending rates. Whilst total expenses decreased by 2.7 percent from Ksh. 59.2 billion in the June 2013 quarter to Ksh. 57.6 billion in the September 2013 quarter. The reduction in expenses was partly attributed to decline in interest paid on deposits. On an annual basis, the profitability of the sector increased by 14.5 percent to Ksh. 92.5 billion in September 2013 from the Ksh. 80.8 billion registered in September 2012.

http://www.centralbank.g...rdBankingsector2013.pdf

Looks like a U-shaped recovery scenario where increased NPLs (hence provisions) will be glossed over by increasing loan uptake & efficiencies/innovations. Declining rates appear to be the elephant in the room near-term. Especially for Kenya-only banks.

Seems results will be very meritorious this time round. Kaeni rada'.
"
Tough for banks in 3Q if the CBK says the sector has made 6.6% less 3Q 2013 vs 2Q 2012. I thought 2Q was affected by the immediate post-electioneering drama whereas 3Q would have been recovery.
Of course, banks take 30-180 days to provision for bad loans. I wonder the if the bad loans have come to roost?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#14 Posted : Sunday, October 27, 2013 11:12:18 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,960
VituVingiSana wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
According to the CBK Q3 'Wikileaks'

PROFITABILITY: The banking sector profit before tax for the quarter ended September 2013 decreased by 6.6 percent from Ksh. 33.2 billion in June 2013 quarter compared to Ksh. 31.0 billion for the quarter ending September 2013. Over the same period, total income stood at Ksh. 88.6 billion being a decrease of 4.1 percent from Ksh. 92.4 billion registered in the second quarter of 2013. The decline was partly attributed to the reduction in lending rates. Whilst total expenses decreased by 2.7 percent from Ksh. 59.2 billion in the June 2013 quarter to Ksh. 57.6 billion in the September 2013 quarter. The reduction in expenses was partly attributed to decline in interest paid on deposits. On an annual basis, the profitability of the sector increased by 14.5 percent to Ksh. 92.5 billion in September 2013 from the Ksh. 80.8 billion registered in September 2012.

http://www.centralbank.g...rdBankingsector2013.pdf

Looks like a U-shaped recovery scenario where increased NPLs (hence provisions) will be glossed over by increasing loan uptake & efficiencies/innovations. Declining rates appear to be the elephant in the room near-term. Especially for Kenya-only banks.

Seems results will be very meritorious this time round. Kaeni rada'.
"
Tough for banks in 3Q if the CBK says the sector has made 6.6% less 3Q 2013 vs 2Q 2012. I thought 2Q was affected by the immediate post-electioneering drama whereas 3Q would have been recovery.
Of course, banks take 30-180 days to provision for bad loans. I wonder the if the bad loans have come to roost?


Worst case scenario >African Bank Declines Most in Three Months After Reporting Loss #JSE http://www.bloomberg.com...fter-reporting-loss.html
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Sunday, October 27, 2013 11:27:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,908
Location: Nairobi
@cde - The bank referred to is a micro-lender giving out unsecured loans & hire purchase loans in SA. It doesn't reflect what Kenyan banks would face. Most of the loans by Kenyan banks are secured & the uptake of unsecured credit in Kenya is much lower than SA. The folks in SA are crazy as they have huge consumer borrowing.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#16 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 3:22:37 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
According to the CBK Q3 'Wikileaks'

PROFITABILITY: The banking sector profit before tax for the quarter ended September 2013 decreased by 6.6 percent from Ksh. 33.2 billion in June 2013 quarter compared to Ksh. 31.0 billion for the quarter ending September 2013. Over the same period, total income stood at Ksh. 88.6 billion being a decrease of 4.1 percent from Ksh. 92.4 billion registered in the second quarter of 2013. The decline was partly attributed to the reduction in lending rates. Whilst total expenses decreased by 2.7 percent from Ksh. 59.2 billion in the June 2013 quarter to Ksh. 57.6 billion in the September 2013 quarter. The reduction in expenses was partly attributed to decline in interest paid on deposits. On an annual basis, the profitability of the sector increased by 14.5 percent to Ksh. 92.5 billion in September 2013 from the Ksh. 80.8 billion registered in September 2012.

http://www.centralbank.g...rdBankingsector2013.pdf

Looks like a U-shaped recovery scenario where increased NPLs (hence provisions) will be glossed over by increasing loan uptake & efficiencies/innovations. Declining rates appear to be the elephant in the room near-term. Especially for Kenya-only banks.

Seems results will be very meritorious this time round. Kaeni rada'.
"
Tough for banks in 3Q if the CBK says the sector has made 6.6% less 3Q 2013 vs 2Q 2012. I thought 2Q was affected by the immediate post-electioneering drama whereas 3Q would have been recovery.
Of course, banks take 30-180 days to provision for bad loans. I wonder the if the bad loans have come to roost?

Unexpected to see CBK stated that the sector was on handbrake in Q3. This is likely to spill over into Q4. If so, then the Oct Q3 bank stock price rally speculation will meet a brick wall making Oct highs become tops for 2013.

@cde - indeed some unpleasant surprises loom...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mwekez@ji
#17 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 10:35:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,049
obiero wrote:
@mwekez@ji hope u dont get shocked by some of the big boy results.. they must dissapoint


I trust they wont disappoint. y/y (+14.5%) is good. Hiyo q/q (-6.6%) looks like a temporary blip lakini niko rada @CFC&Equity. … CBK “Banking Sector 2013 Outlook” in the report (pg 5) is positive ;-)
mwekez@ji
#18 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 10:38:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,049
Banking Sector 2013 Outlook

The banking sector is expected to maintain its growth momentum on the backdrop of a stable macro-economic environment, domestic and regional expansion by banks, increased use of ICT by banks and the increased economic activities through the devolved system of government.

CENTRAL BANK OF KENYA
OCTOBER 2013
Metasploit
#19 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 2:31:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
mwekez@ji wrote:
obiero wrote:
@mwekez@ji hope u dont get shocked by some of the big boy results.. they must dissapoint


I trust they wont disappoint. y/y (+14.5%) is good. Hiyo q/q (-6.6%) looks like a temporary blip lakini niko rada @CFC&Equity. … CBK “Banking Sector 2013 Outlook” in the report (pg 5) is positive ;-)


Mwekezaji.Noted on Friday a block trade of 752k(2 splits) at 35 ksh on equity which wasnt executed at close of trading.Please inform on foreign buys vs sales on this counter at end of trading today.

Impressed by BBK and Britam.Very aggressive bidders.

CFC is lucklustre.clearly the foreign cap is having an impact on this share

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
VituVingiSana
#20 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 2:51:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,908
Location: Nairobi
Centum 1.2mn shares on Friday and 1.55mn on Monday. Results expected soon.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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