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154 Pages«<150151152153154>
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
mnandii
#3021 Posted : Sunday, November 25, 2018 7:58:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,771
A bear market is always ripe for scandals.




https://twitter.com/ahme...tus/1066555281793003521

scandals galore

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3022 Posted : Sunday, November 25, 2018 8:11:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,771
Expect more scandals and violence
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
obiero
#3023 Posted : Sunday, November 25, 2018 8:52:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:
Expect more scandals and violence

The worst is behind us in Jesus name
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
mnandii
#3024 Posted : Monday, November 26, 2018 7:13:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,771
obiero wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Expect more scandals and violence

The worst is behind us in Jesus name


I would be cautious. The worst is yet to come. The NSE 20 share index is yet to find a bottom. And now you get news of the re-emergence of violent gangs e.g mungiki and the clashes starting in Likoni. Pray

There's also a possibility of terrorist attacks
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3025 Posted : Monday, November 26, 2018 7:44:50 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,771

Kingi wants law changed to allow castration of defilers

link

This and Death Penalty likely to find themselves in your legislation as the bear market rages.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3026 Posted : Monday, November 26, 2018 7:59:15 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,771
Posted September 8, 2016:
link
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Pp 164

Quote:
...
Monopoly priviledges stifle innovation, so when monopoly power is removed, an industry is allowed to develop. In contrast, upon every single antitrust action against successful non-monopoly corporations (read Safaricom), innovation did (does) not
immediately burst forth. The reason is that each of these successful companies, in a climate of free competition, was precisely the one responsible for the immense innovation (e.g. Mpesa, introduction of High Speed Mobile internet) that had already occurred. These disparate results confirm the difference between the two types of entities.

We can now see that the principle behind the government's actions with respect to these disparate entities is the same: At tops, the government initiates force to stifle free competition and success ( attacks on Safaricom on alleged dominance); at bottoms, it removes force that has stifled free competition and success. This latter impetus takes two forms: withdrawing antitrust actions against successful non-monopoly companies and dissolving actual monopolies. With this knowledge, we again have the ability to do some limited probabilistic forecasting both in terms of predicting actions against monopolies and predicting major social mood changes when those actions occur


Thus, if Safaricom survives the bear market, we should expect governmental attacks against it to reduce as social mood once again turns positive (i.e when the NSE 20 Share Index bottoms and starts the leg up, and if by then it will not have been broken up as intended by the gov., then the impetus to break it up will dissolve).

On the other hand as the bear market probes a bottom, we should expect monopolies such as Posta and Kenya Power to be broken up and new entrants to compete directly with them.


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
wukan
#3027 Posted : Monday, November 26, 2018 10:30:28 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 972
Posted Sept 21, 2018
wukan wrote:
bartum wrote:
wukan wrote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40


Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom

I pray day and night we get 2500


@mnandii, thanks for your analysis. I was more of the view of a double bottom at 2500 but it looks like that will be a temporary stop. Sub 2K will really be nasty especially for a generation that grew up in Kibaki boom years.



Kibaki era kids going through some painful re-adjustment...na bado sub2K

Quote:
Two ugly incidents by high school leavers have shocked the nation in the past few days. The first was an online video of evidently intoxicated students of Ambira High School in Siaya County, who publicly declared they had cheated in the ongoing Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education examination and insulted public officers with the foulest of language that depicted a lot of uncouth and insolent youngsters.

Second was an incident in Bomet, where a group of high school leavers were caught preparing for a sex orgy.

On the surface, these two explicitly demonstrate the level of indiscipline and rot in our schools. It is such perverted thinking that explains the runaway cases of strikes; where students resort to violence and chaos to show defiance to organised society.
https://www.nation.co.ke...68582-rhu3gj/index.html

mnandii
#3028 Posted : Saturday, December 22, 2018 3:52:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,771
Kendall & Hochberg: Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market

Quote:
Most economists and financial analysts believe that central banks set interest rates.

For more than two decades, Elliott Wave International has tracked the relationship between interest rates set by the marketplace and interest rates set by the U.S. Federal Reserve and found that it’s actually the other way around—the market leads, and the Fed follows.

The latest Federal Reserve rate decision on December 19 brought the usual breathless anticipation. Confusion reigned as the U.S. president as well as a former Fed board member publicly urged the U.S. central bank not to raise rates and many wondered if the Fed would “rescue” investors with a surprise decision to leave them unchanged. The Fed, however, did what it almost always does: it brought its rate in line with market rates.

The Fed increased its federal funds rate a quarter-point from 2.25% to 2.50%. As shown by the dashed line in Figure 1, the Fed’s move followed a rise in the six-month U.S. Treasury bill yield from 2.36% to 2.56% and an increase in the three-month U.S. Treasury bill yield from 2.18% to 2.42% since the prior Fed rate hike on September 26. So, market rates remain nearly undefeated when it comes to predicting what the Fed’s actions will be.




Figure 2, a longer term version of the same relationship, is from The Socionomic Theory of Finance by Robert Prechter. It shows the federal funds rate as set by the Fed and the market-set three-month U.S. Treasury bill yield back to early 2000.

This history shows that the T-bill market moves first and the Fed’s interest-rate changes follow. As a result, no one monitoring the Fed’s decisions can predict when T-bill rates will change, but anyone monitoring the T-bill rate can predict when the Fed’s rates will change.

We demonstrated this ability in August 2007 by predicting that the Fed was on the cusp of lowering its federal funds rate dramatically. Figure 2 shows the timing and its aftermath.






Page Link

Read Newsmax: Interest Rates Win as The Fed Follows the Market, AGAIN! | Newsmax.com
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3029 Posted : Saturday, December 22, 2018 3:56:32 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,771
wukan wrote:
Posted Sept 21, 2018
wukan wrote:
bartum wrote:
wukan wrote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40


Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom

I pray day and night we get 2500


@mnandii, thanks for your analysis. I was more of the view of a double bottom at 2500 but it looks like that will be a temporary stop. Sub 2K will really be nasty especially for a generation that grew up in Kibaki boom years.



Kibaki era kids going through some painful re-adjustment...na bado sub2K

Quote:
Two ugly incidents by high school leavers have shocked the nation in the past few days. The first was an online video of evidently intoxicated students of Ambira High School in Siaya County, who publicly declared they had cheated in the ongoing Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education examination and insulted public officers with the foulest of language that depicted a lot of uncouth and insolent youngsters.

Second was an incident in Bomet, where a group of high school leavers were caught preparing for a sex orgy.

On the surface, these two explicitly demonstrate the level of indiscipline and rot in our schools. It is such perverted thinking that explains the runaway cases of strikes; where students resort to violence and chaos to show defiance to organised society.
https://www.nation.co.ke...68582-rhu3gj/index.html



Mambo mbaya. Our next president will be an extremist!

Ruto in Kenya and Malema in South Africa!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3030 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2019 7:33:05 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,771
Posted on Nov. 26, 2018

mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Expect more scandals and violence

The worst is behind us in Jesus name


I would be cautious. The worst is yet to come. The NSE 20 share index is yet to find a bottom. And now you get news of the re-emergence of violent gangs e.g mungiki and the clashes starting in Likoni. Pray

There's also a possibility of terrorist attacks


link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3031 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2019 7:42:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,771
October 15, 2015:

mnandii wrote:
The permeating negative social mood cause government agencies to become sloppy. Such an environment is rife for terrorist attacks.


post 1035
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3032 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2019 7:44:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,771
Am just trying to show the link between the stock market (as a barometer of social mood) and social actions.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3033 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2019 7:50:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,771
And on October 15, 2015:

mnandii wrote:
A Socionomic View of Accidents
At market tops (the height of positive social mood) flying is safer while driving is dangerous.

The elevated social mood creates feelings of inclusionism. Flying requires joint effort with different teams working together to make the event a success. Thus enough attention is directed at safety.

The elevated social mood creates optimism. Optimistic drivers over-speed thus leading to accidents.

.................................................

In bear markets, social mood is depressed creating feelings of exclusionism (people pulling in different directions). Thus, for flights, this pulling apart precludes paying enough attention to safety measures hence aviation accidents.

Depressed people do not over-speed thus fewer vehicular accidents in a bear market.

Therefore, as this bear matures, ensure you limit frequency of your flying and embark on driving more. smile

post 1036



Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
VituVingiSana
#3034 Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2019 8:56:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,146
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
Am just trying to show the link between the stock market (as a barometer of social mood) and social actions.

Where was the S&P at on 10 Sep 2011?
Terrorist attacks may be random and unlikely tied to the state of the stock market.

I could say "the market and booming and there will be a scam" but that means little given scams happen all the time.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
bartum
#3035 Posted : Wednesday, January 16, 2019 1:05:45 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 990
Location: nairobi
Is the market looking up, chartists what do you say
Ericsson
#3036 Posted : Wednesday, January 16, 2019 1:16:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 6,047
Location: NAIROBI
bartum wrote:
Is the market looking up, chartists what do you say


Taking positions in anticipation of full year results and dividends in the financial sector and for companies whose FY ended 31 December
rwitre
#3037 Posted : Wednesday, January 16, 2019 1:46:45 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 228
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
bartum wrote:
Is the market looking up, chartists what do you say


Taking positions in anticipation of full year results and dividends in the financial sector and for companies whose FY ended 31 December



SCOM, EQTY, KCB, ICDC taking off.

BRIT, JUB, KEGN on queue

NMG yet to be cleared

Come rally, come!

Applause Applause
wukan
#3038 Posted : Wednesday, January 16, 2019 2:35:43 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 972
bartum wrote:
Is the market looking up, chartists what do you say


NSE 20 index is range-bound between 2750 and 2850 with more bias to the downside. Short term technical indicators show a strong buy and long term indicators show strong sell. “Gaps Almost Always Get Filled in Range-Bound Markets”
lochaz-index
#3039 Posted : Friday, January 18, 2019 11:01:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 933
rwitre wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
bartum wrote:
Is the market looking up, chartists what do you say


Taking positions in anticipation of full year results and dividends in the financial sector and for companies whose FY ended 31 December



SCOM, EQTY, KCB, ICDC taking off.

BRIT, JUB, KEGN on queue

NMG yet to be cleared

Come rally, come!

Applause Applause

Market has been consolidating for the last three months or so. This is after erasing the whole 2017 rally and puncturing the Feb 2017 low of 2789. Generally, I don't expect 2019 to be good for EM/FMs but there are always some exceptions.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mufasa
#3040 Posted : Tuesday, January 22, 2019 2:12:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 146
lochaz-index wrote:
rwitre wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
bartum wrote:
Is the market looking up, chartists what do you say


Taking positions in anticipation of full year results and dividends in the financial sector and for companies whose FY ended 31 December



SCOM, EQTY, KCB, ICDC taking off.

BRIT, JUB, KEGN on queue

NMG yet to be cleared

Come rally, come!

Applause Applause

Market has been consolidating for the last three months or so. This is after erasing the whole 2017 rally and puncturing the Feb 2017 low of 2789. Generally, I don't expect 2019 to be good for EM/FMs but there are always some exceptions.


The resistance at these 2700 levels has held for a while now. To the point we can start feeling a new social mood kicking in.

Post Dusit attack, Kenyans are beginning to feel more resilient and foreigners are gaining more confidence with our economy. We've overtaken Ethiopia, GDP wise again. The likelihood of them catching up again is not soon.

Handshake is bearing fruit.

Grand corruption cases have gone down... We're now just dealing with thieves of yester-years.

So, yes. A small upward spike is expected.
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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