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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
mnandii
#3161 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 9:06:47 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,843
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom appears to be developing an expanded flat ABC where wave A completed at about Kes 21.77. Now I expect the developing wave B to rise to about Kes 36.49 - 38.70. After completion of wave B I will expect Safcom to fall in wave C to significantly below Kes 21.77 (the wave A low).

The above scenario is negated if Safcom continues down to below Kes 21.77 immediately.

Am still for this sceanrio
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Angelica _ann
#3162 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 11:46:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 10,794
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom appears to be developing an expanded flat ABC where wave A completed at about Kes 21.77. Now I expect the developing wave B to rise to about Kes 36.49 - 38.70. After completion of wave B I will expect Safcom to fall in wave C to significantly below Kes 21.77 (the wave A low).

The above scenario is negated if Safcom continues down to below Kes 21.77 immediately.

Am still for this sceanrio


Still headed to 36???
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Ericsson
#3163 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 11:54:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,231
Location: NAIROBI
Angelica _ann wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom appears to be developing an expanded flat ABC where wave A completed at about Kes 21.77. Now I expect the developing wave B to rise to about Kes 36.49 - 38.70. After completion of wave B I will expect Safcom to fall in wave C to significantly below Kes 21.77 (the wave A low).

The above scenario is negated if Safcom continues down to below Kes 21.77 immediately.

Am still for this sceanrio


Still headed to 36???

Current market conditions don't allow.
xtina
#3164 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 12:30:10 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 259
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting.


Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted

Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!


Shame on you
DON'T BUY!



Meaning? Don't buy NOW or don't buy AT ALL?
cnn
#3165 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 4:32:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,560
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting.


Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted

Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!


Shame on you
DON'T BUY!


Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times

And it came to pass .....2488
whiteowl
#3166 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 5:20:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,356
Location: Bohemian Grove
cnn wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting.


Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted

Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!


Shame on you
DON'T BUY!


Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times

And it came to pass .....2488


Its only safcom holding the entire index up.If it drops we'll be back to pre Kibaki levels.
Ericsson
#3167 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 5:28:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,231
Location: NAIROBI
whiteowl wrote:
cnn wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting.


Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted

Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!


Shame on you
DON'T BUY!


Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times

And it came to pass .....2488


Its only safcom holding the entire index up.If it drops we'll be back to pre Kibaki levels.

And it will be a buying opportunity for gem stocks
VituVingiSana
#3168 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 5:32:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,289
Location: Nairobi
cnn wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting.


Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted

Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!


Shame on you
DON'T BUY!


Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times

And it came to pass .....2488
We do not have "new" firms to replace those have become junk in the NSE20.

Which were and are the constituents of the NSE20?
I think firms like Mumias, KQ and Uchumi were once constituents.
Then we had "consolidation" of 4:1 of KQ. Is this neutral in the index?
Are bonuses neutral i.e. does the price adjustment also account for the bonus?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#3169 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 6:10:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,181
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
cnn wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting.


Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted

Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!


Shame on you
DON'T BUY!


Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times

And it came to pass .....2488
We do not have "new" firms to replace those have become junk in the NSE20.

Which were and are the constituents of the NSE20?
I think firms like Mumias, KQ and Uchumi were once constituents.
Then we had "consolidation" of 4:1 of KQ. Is this neutral in the index?
Are bonuses neutral i.e. does the price adjustment also account for the bonus?

KQ was last month reinstated to the NSE20
COOP 5,500; KCB 7,500; KNRE 100,000; KQ 221,100
obiero
#3170 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 6:16:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,181
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
cnn wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting.


Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted

Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!


Shame on you
DON'T BUY!


Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times

And it came to pass .....2488
We do not have "new" firms to replace those have become junk in the NSE20.

Which were and are the constituents of the NSE20?
I think firms like Mumias, KQ and Uchumi were once constituents.
Then we had "consolidation" of 4:1 of KQ. Is this neutral in the index?
Are bonuses neutral i.e. does the price adjustment also account for the bonus?

KQ was last month reinstated to the NSE20
COOP 5,500; KCB 7,500; KNRE 100,000; KQ 221,100
cnn
#3171 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 7:10:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,560
VituVingiSana wrote:
cnn wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting.


Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted

Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!


Shame on you
DON'T BUY!


Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times

And it came to pass .....2488
We do not have "new" firms to replace those have become junk in the NSE20.

Which were and are the constituents of the NSE20?
I think firms like Mumias, KQ and Uchumi were once constituents.
Then we had "consolidation" of 4:1 of KQ. Is this neutral in the index?
Are bonuses neutral i.e. does the price adjustment also account for the bonus?

True the likes of Mumias were part of the NSE 20 index in the past and looking at where they are trading ,the NSE 20 would be even lower were they still constituent counters
That GFF low looks certain to be breached in the coming weeks .
mnandii
#3172 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 7:15:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,843
The NSE 20 Share Index just printed below 2500 at 2488
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3173 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 7:22:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,843
xtina wrote:
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting.


Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted

Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!


Shame on you
DON'T BUY!



Meaning? Don't buy NOW or don't buy AT ALL?


Don't buy at all. I believe better buying opportunities will reappear at least 3 years hence. This is because one the bottom of the market is reached it may take time for the market to start rising meaningfully.

Hold lots of hard cash . There will be better things to buy even if not shares.


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
VituVingiSana
#3174 Posted : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 8:38:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,289
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
xtina wrote:
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting.


Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted

Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!


Shame on you
DON'T BUY!



Meaning? Don't buy NOW or don't buy AT ALL?


Don't buy at all. I believe better buying opportunities will reappear at least 3 years hence. This is because one the bottom of the market is reached it may take time for the market to start rising meaningfully.

Hold lots of hard cash . There will be better things to buy even if not shares.
So one should wait until August 2022 before going back in?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mnandii
#3175 Posted : Friday, August 23, 2019 12:17:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,843
NAIROBI ALL SHARE INDEX (NASI)

You can see a completed impulsive Elliott Wave represented by numbers 12345 to complete a larger degree wave (A) or (1). The completion of this impulse implies that the largest correction since the start of the impulse wave is at hand. In fact the correction has started (where we have wave A at about 139. Wave B is developing (as indicated by the UP ARROW) whose targets (ending) are the green lines/levels). Once wave B completes i will expect the NASI to drop to targets indicated by the blue lines and most especially the 122.07 or 105.60 being 50% and 61.8% retracement of the impulse.



The structure of an ideal impulse wave is shown below:

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3176 Posted : Friday, August 23, 2019 12:31:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,843
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
xtina wrote:
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting.


Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted

Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!


Shame on you
DON'T BUY!



Meaning? Don't buy NOW or don't buy AT ALL?


Don't buy at all. I believe better buying opportunities will reappear at least 3 years hence. This is because one the bottom of the market is reached it may take time for the market to start rising meaningfully.

Hold lots of hard cash . There will be better things to buy even if not shares.
So one should wait until August 2022 before going back in?

The 3 years is my educated smile guess. While Elliott waves are useful in forecasting prices it may not work well in forecasting time/duration. So for me I would concentrate more on the structure of the waves as the bear market matures to forecast a bottom. Having said that i tried to apply Elliotticians' experience in arriving at the 3 year timeframe because the condition that pertain to a bear market (especially of stocks) may not allow a quick recovery of the market once the bottom is hit.

It is also useful to remember that at some point trading may be halted in the market to try to stem the slide. The government will be working overtime to retain some semblance of the public's confidence in the market
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
lochaz-index
#3177 Posted : Friday, August 23, 2019 2:22:32 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 970
mnandii wrote:
NAIROBI ALL SHARE INDEX (NASI)

You can see a completed impulsive Elliott Wave represented by numbers 12345 to complete a larger degree wave (A) or (1). The completion of this impulse implies that the largest correction since the start of the impulse wave is at hand. In fact the correction has started (where we have wave A at about 139. Wave B is developing (as indicated by the UP ARROW) whose targets (ending) are the green lines/levels). Once wave B completes i will expect the NASI to drop to targets indicated by the blue lines and most especially the 122.07 or 105.60 being 50% and 61.8% retracement of the impulse.



The structure of an ideal impulse wave is shown below:


Thanks for the Elliot wave analysis on the NASI index. My rudimentary reading of the same suggested there is a cliff ahead. In the meantime, since there will be few or no new listings, upside is limited. Mid and small caps especially are in for a rough ride if this pans out.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
wukan
#3178 Posted : Friday, August 23, 2019 3:45:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,186
The next president will need to have balls of steel to take Kenya through the cliff ahead. Painful decisions will need to be made if this pans out.
muandiwambeu
#3179 Posted : Friday, August 23, 2019 5:06:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,150
wukan wrote:
The next president will need to have balls of steel to take Kenya through the cliff ahead. Painful decisions will need to be made if this pans out.

After ridding the crest and trough during gfc, I can first hand tell what it feels like for the stuck buddies. For gfc, a few brokerage firms folded up leaving revellers high and dry, this one has been very specific, financials and manufacturing. This is truly death by a thousand cuts.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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