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175 Pages«<167168169170171>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
mnandii
#3361 Posted : Sunday, March 22, 2020 6:35:43 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
Quote:
Social mood regulates our perceptions of other people and our willingness to cooperate with them. Benchmark stock indexes are our best metrics of social mood. When mood trends positively at large degree, stock prices rise and cooperation, inclusion and free trade grow stronger. When mood trends negatively at large degree, stock prices fall and opposition, exclusion and protectionism grow stronger.
The September 1992 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist described this perennial fluctuation:
Quote:
Major bear markets are accompanied by a reduction in the size of people’s unit of allegiance, the group that they consider to be like themselves. At the peak, there is a perceived brotherhood of men and nations. … In other words, at a peak, it’s all ‘we’; everyone is a potential friend. At a bottom it’s all ‘they’; everyone is a potential enemy. When times are good, tolerance is greater and boundaries weaker. When times are bad, intolerance for differences grows, and people build walls and fences to shut out those perceived to be different.



Quote:
A multi-century trend toward positive social mood impelled a widespread vision of the world as an integrated, inclusive, culturally tolerant marketplace. This “everyone is a potential friend” attitude helped produce the greatest level of global interconnectedness and trading activity in history. The phenomenon earned its own name — “globalization.” Globalization may be history’s largest manifestation of positive social mood.

Elliott Wave International’s long-term Elliott wave count suggests that a transition from positive to negative social mood is under way at large-degree. … Negative expressions include closed borders, trade barriers and sanctions, and overt desires for exclusion, isolation, nationalism and populist and authoritarian leaders. Brexit is a recent example. The trend toward negative social mood is darkening the formerly rosy vision of globalization, and groups of all sizes increasingly find fault with the whole idea.


Reversal in the 500 Year Trend Toward Globalization


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3362 Posted : Sunday, March 22, 2020 6:46:46 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
OIL
XTIUSD



Expect another down move in oil. To below $20.00, targeting $11.52
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3363 Posted : Sunday, March 22, 2020 7:27:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087


Bear Market Opportunities
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Angelica _ann
#3364 Posted : Sunday, March 22, 2020 7:56:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,462
Some panic selling would be nice this week at NSE, before some small recovery thereafter.

KCB at 35-38 am game on!!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
lochaz-index
#3365 Posted : Monday, March 23, 2020 4:21:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,113
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:

I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.



#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM

Quote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40

wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom





I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon

Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove.


NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows

Getting closer.

Sub-2000 has printed after a long wait. NSE20 is down about 700 points YTD or about 25% which is quite a steep fall in three months.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#3366 Posted : Wednesday, March 25, 2020 7:30:58 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,113
Probable all time highs coming up on the KES having closed yesterday at 106.4 despite some dollar weakness for the day.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
VituVingiSana
#3367 Posted : Wednesday, March 25, 2020 8:16:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,974
Location: Nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
Some panic selling would be nice this week at NSE, before some small recovery thereafter.

KCB at 35-38 am game on!!!!
32.50
Time to buy banks! Or is it still too soon?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
wukan
#3368 Posted : Wednesday, March 25, 2020 8:58:59 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,384
VituVingiSana wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Some panic selling would be nice this week at NSE, before some small recovery thereafter.

KCB at 35-38 am game on!!!!
32.50
Time to buy banks! Or is it still too soon?


I would say wait for next 30 days.
mnandii
#3369 Posted : Thursday, March 26, 2020 10:08:08 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
wukan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Some panic selling would be nice this week at NSE, before some small recovery thereafter.

KCB at 35-38 am game on!!!!
32.50
Time to buy banks! Or is it still too soon?


I would say wait for next 30 days.


Too soon. Keep cash
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3370 Posted : Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:49:19 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
For Good Health avoid carbohydrates:

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3371 Posted : Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:51:01 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
https://youtu.be/FgnukiqovaA

CrossFit
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3372 Posted : Wednesday, April 08, 2020 8:25:11 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
SAFARICOM



Circle waves (i) and (ii) in place. Expect a strong sharp down move to levels below 24.00 in the coming days to make for circle wave (iii). Initial targets 14.00 .
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3373 Posted : Wednesday, April 08, 2020 8:33:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX


Expect NSE 20 Share index to continue falling to levels below 1700.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
wukan
#3374 Posted : Wednesday, April 08, 2020 8:52:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,384
Those proposed taxation measures have cooled the perma-bulls. There is no easy way out long painful recovery unless we do structural adjustment of the economy.
muandiwambeu
#3375 Posted : Wednesday, April 08, 2020 2:48:58 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,200
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX


Expect NSE 20 Share index to continue falling to levels below 1700.

The only meaningful threat to a living being is that which threatens it's life.
Covid 19 is and scampering for safety is a must
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
mnandii
#3376 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2020 2:19:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
Isn't this a sign of bank-runs that is surely coming? @vvs your banks are about to get a beating

Quote:
Saccos fight to survive as desperate members cash in subscriptions

Quote:
The Co-operative Alliance of Kenya has launched a funds drive to help savings and credit societies (Saccos) in the horticulture, hospitality and Aviation industries adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Chief executive Daniel Marube said the Co-operative Coronavirus Response Committee would solicit funds from co-operative societies, local and foreign well-wishers to cushion the affected saccos from imminent collapse.

He said the affected societies have suffered reduced incomes with members sent home and others forced to take a salary cut. This has seen an upsurge in withdrawals adversely affecting liquidity in the said saccos.

“There is a concern by the management of the affected societies that their members are withdrawing savings to cater for their families’ basic needs.

“This trend, if not curtailed is likely to affect the liquidity levels of the societies and equally discourage the saving culture in the country,” said Mr Marube.



Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3377 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2020 2:20:58 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
mnandii wrote:
Isn't this a sign of bank-runs that is surely coming? @vvs your banks are about to get a beating

Quote:
Saccos fight to survive as desperate members cash in subscriptions

Quote:
The Co-operative Alliance of Kenya has launched a funds drive to help savings and credit societies (Saccos) in the horticulture, hospitality and Aviation industries adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Chief executive Daniel Marube said the Co-operative Coronavirus Response Committee would solicit funds from co-operative societies, local and foreign well-wishers to cushion the affected saccos from imminent collapse.

He said the affected societies have suffered reduced incomes with members sent home and others forced to take a salary cut. This has seen an upsurge in withdrawals adversely affecting liquidity in the said saccos.

“There is a concern by the management of the affected societies that their members are withdrawing savings to cater for their families’ basic needs.

“This trend, if not curtailed is likely to affect the liquidity levels of the societies and equally discourage the saving culture in the country,” said Mr Marube.





link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3378 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2020 2:34:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,087
It is important for all to note that the current crises we are experiencing will not end any time soon. It may well be the beginning of a much more difficult deflationary environment.

As long as the NSE 20 Share Index keeps falling (the waves show that a bottom is still far away) the physical and economic situation will continue to get worse. This is Socionomics and we have forecasted these conditions over several posts in this thread.It's also precisely why Elliotticians and Socionomists advocate keeping hard cash. With cash you will have something when banks collapse. And the value of your holdings will increase substantially especially at a time when everybody else will have lost theirs.

Of course you must forget about real estate for now and for a long time to come. Their values have started falling and have a long way to fall further. No one is going to bother about property any time soon.

And since you have more time in your hands by virtue of the quarantine, consider reading CONQUER THE CRASH BY ROBERT PRECHTER. You should have read it long time ago but you still have time to help yourself.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
VituVingiSana
#3379 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2020 11:38:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,974
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
Isn't this a sign of bank-runs that is surely coming? @vvs your banks are about to get a beating

Quote:
Saccos fight to survive as desperate members cash in subscriptions

Quote:
The Co-operative Alliance of Kenya has launched a funds drive to help savings and credit societies (Saccos) in the horticulture, hospitality and Aviation industries adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Chief executive Daniel Marube said the Co-operative Coronavirus Response Committee would solicit funds from co-operative societies, local and foreign well-wishers to cushion the affected saccos from imminent collapse.

He said the affected societies have suffered reduced incomes with members sent home and others forced to take a salary cut. This has seen an upsurge in withdrawals adversely affecting liquidity in the said saccos.

“There is a concern by the management of the affected societies that their members are withdrawing savings to cater for their families’ basic needs.

“This trend, if not curtailed is likely to affect the liquidity levels of the societies and equally discourage the saving culture in the country,” said Mr Marube.




1. Not all banks are equal but "my" banks should be fine but there are no guarantees.
2. SACCOs are different from banks. The owners/depositors/borrowers of SACCOs tend to be from the same pool. That's a plus and minus. The plus is the losses are primarily contained within the group. The minus is those in that group will suffer.
3. Banks are heavily scrutinized and since 2008 have better buffers. Again, not all banks are the same. "My" banks are solid at the moment. The future is unknown.

Would you like to revisit this? I propose May 2021 after 1Q 2021 results are out.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#3380 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2020 11:44:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,974
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
It is important for all to note that the current crises we are experiencing will not end any time soon. It may well be the beginning of a much more difficult deflationary environment.

As long as the NSE 20 Share Index keeps falling (the waves show that a bottom is still far away) the physical and economic situation will continue to get worse. This is Socionomics and we have forecasted these conditions over several posts in this thread.It's also precisely why Elliotticians and Socionomists advocate keeping hard cash. With cash you will have something when banks collapse. And the value of your holdings will increase substantially especially at a time when everybody else will have lost theirs.

Of course you must forget about real estate for now and for a long time to come. Their values have started falling and have a long way to fall further. No one is going to bother about property any time soon.

And since you have more time in your hands by virtue of the quarantine, consider reading CONQUER THE CRASH BY ROBERT PRECHTER. You should have read it long time ago but you still have time to help yourself.

Deflation is not all bad. It's about relativity.
Example: In 2018, I could sell my house for 1mn and buy 2 flats for 1mn. Now I can get 800k for the house but the 2 flats for 800k as well then RELATIVELY speaking little has changed.

As for good income-producing assets, the ROI is important. Would cash have been better? Yes but cash also has a cash-drag (esp in the USA, EU, Japan but not in Kenya) currently. That said, cash offers optionality as is today, was yesterday and will be tomorrow.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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