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183 Pages«<178179180181182>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
heri
#3581 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2020 12:10:51 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 778
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly



Have you looked at KENGEN?
heri
#3582 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2020 12:13:24 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 778
Location: nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mnandii wrote:


SAFARICOM. Still falling. My target of sub 14.00 remains.

Do fundamentalists realize that the share has been falling despite the stellar results announced recently? Why has the good results not propped up the share as we were made to believe?

The only reason is that fundamentals do not determine the direction of a market. Causality is the opposite way: the market direction determines the direction of fundamentals


I don't think anyone expects stellar H1 results due in November.
The KES depreciation is also messing up the bulls.
That said, it would be interesting to see Scom retreat back to 14 levels. The fear gauge would be at an all time high.



Is safaricom not benefiting to some extent with the online learning, online transactions ,home fibre uptake etc .
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#3583 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2020 12:21:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,112
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
heri wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mnandii wrote:


SAFARICOM. Still falling. My target of sub 14.00 remains.

Do fundamentalists realize that the share has been falling despite the stellar results announced recently? Why has the good results not propped up the share as we were made to believe?

The only reason is that fundamentals do not determine the direction of a market. Causality is the opposite way: the market direction determines the direction of fundamentals


I don't think anyone expects stellar H1 results due in November.
The KES depreciation is also messing up the bulls.
That said, it would be interesting to see Scom retreat back to 14 levels. The fear gauge would be at an all time high.



Is safaricom not benefiting to some extent with the online learning, online transactions ,home fibre uptake etc .


They are but that advantage is currently being offset by the reduction in mpesa transcations vs pre-corona days. also note people are breaking down Mpesa transactions to 1k each so as not to pay any charges.
Lastly, nothing scares foreign investors(they account for around 70-80% of volumes in this counter) more than a depreciating currency.
Markets
heri
#3584 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2020 12:33:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 778
Location: nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
heri wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mnandii wrote:


SAFARICOM. Still falling. My target of sub 14.00 remains.

Do fundamentalists realize that the share has been falling despite the stellar results announced recently? Why has the good results not propped up the share as we were made to believe?

The only reason is that fundamentals do not determine the direction of a market. Causality is the opposite way: the market direction determines the direction of fundamentals


I don't think anyone expects stellar H1 results due in November.
The KES depreciation is also messing up the bulls.
That said, it would be interesting to see Scom retreat back to 14 levels. The fear gauge would be at an all time high.



Is safaricom not benefiting to some extent with the online learning, online transactions ,home fibre uptake etc .


They are but that advantage is currently being offset by the reduction in mpesa transcations vs pre-corona days. also note people are breaking down Mpesa transactions to 1k each so as not to pay any charges.
Lastly, nothing scares foreign investors(they account for around 70-80% of volumes in this counter) more than a depreciating currency.


Good to know. very useful
VituVingiSana
#3585 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2020 5:59:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,201
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#3586 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2020 6:37:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,849
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.

Yes
We look at individual counters and position ourselves.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#3587 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 4:53:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,201
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.

Yes
We look at individual counters and position ourselves.

https://topforeignstocks...nya-nse-20-share-index/
Does anyone have the current NSE 20 Index?
@Mnandii - What NSE Index are you using? What are the components?

From the 2017 NSE-20 list, I recall owning (or have owned) in any significant quantity but NOT in equal percentages.

ARM
BAT
Stanbic
Centum
Equity
KenolKobil
Safaricom
SCBK
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#3588 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 7:59:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,849
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.

Yes
We look at individual counters and position ourselves.

https://topforeignstocks...nya-nse-20-share-index/
Does anyone have the current NSE 20 Index?
@Mnandii - What NSE Index are you using? What are the components?

From the 2017 NSE-20 list, I recall owning (or have owned) in any significant quantity but NOT in equal percentages.

ARM
BAT
Stanbic
Centum
Equity
KenolKobil
Safaricom
SCBK


NSE is sleeping,the list needs to be reviewed with some companies being dropped and others added.
The companies to be dropped
Kenya airways
Kenol Mobil
ARM Cement
Kenya Power

Nation media and Bamburi cement to be on the watchlist.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
wukan
#3589 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 8:48:33 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,450
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.


d'oh! d'oh! so what exactly are you invested in if not the top 20 best performing countersLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Quote:
The NSE 20 Share Index is a price weight index calculated as a mean of the top 20 best performing counters. The constituent companies are selected based on a weighted market performance during the period under review based the following criteria:
 Trading activity measures i.e. market capitalization, shares traded, deals/liquidity and turnover
during the period under review are weighed in the ratio of 4:3:2:1 respectively;
 A company must have at least 20% of its shares quoted at the NSE;
 Must have a minimum market capitalization of Kshs. 20 million;
 A company should ideally be a blue chip with superior profitability and dividend record.
Ericsson
#3590 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 9:07:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,849
Location: NAIROBI
wukan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.


d'oh! d'oh! so what exactly are you invested in if not the top 20 best performing countersLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Quote:
The NSE 20 Share Index is a price weight index calculated as a mean of the top 20 best performing counters. The constituent companies are selected based on a weighted market performance during the period under review based the following criteria:
 Trading activity measures i.e. market capitalization, shares traded, deals/liquidity and turnover
during the period under review are weighed in the ratio of 4:3:2:1 respectively;
 A company must have at least 20% of its shares quoted at the NSE;
 Must have a minimum market capitalization of Kshs. 20 million;
 A company should ideally be a blue chip with superior profitability and dividend record.


@wukan
The list is outdated and needs a review.
Some of the constituent counters have been delisted,suspended from trading and some no longer shine like they used to 5 years ago.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
mnandii
#3591 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 9:12:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
Ericsson wrote:
wukan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.


d'oh! d'oh! so what exactly are you invested in if not the top 20 best performing countersLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Quote:
The NSE 20 Share Index is a price weight index calculated as a mean of the top 20 best performing counters. The constituent companies are selected based on a weighted market performance during the period under review based the following criteria:
 Trading activity measures i.e. market capitalization, shares traded, deals/liquidity and turnover
during the period under review are weighed in the ratio of 4:3:2:1 respectively;
 A company must have at least 20% of its shares quoted at the NSE;
 Must have a minimum market capitalization of Kshs. 20 million;
 A company should ideally be a blue chip with superior profitability and dividend record.


@wukan
The list is outdated and needs a review.
Some of the constituent counters have been delisted,suspended from trading and some no longer shine like they used to 5 years ago.


If a constituent is delisted or suspended then it must be replaced with another. Unless there is something I don't get.
It is also important to note that the index represents the health of the overall market. It is, afterall, not just a number without basis surely!

But I understand the pain Sad many wazuans are facing.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3592 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 9:21:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
Quote:
NSE slides to 17-year low as stocks suffer huge losses

Quote:
Kenya’s stock market hit a new 17-year low in Tuesday’s trading as most stocks continued to suffer losses.

The benchmark NSE 20 Share Index closed at 1,794.6 points, a level last seen on April 28, 2003.

The performance has pushed the current bear market to five-and-a-half years, with the index falling 67.3 per cent from the peak of 5,491.3 points recorded on February 2, 2015.


Quote:
Since the year begun, Nation Media Group , Bamburi Cement and Nairobi Securities Exchange (the bourse operator) have seen their stocks drop the most by 73.1, 67.1 and 44.9 per cent to trade at Sh10.1, Sh28 and Sh6.7 respectively.

Safaricom, the largest company on the bourse, has also shed 14.7 per cent over the same period to close at Sh26.4 in yesterday’s trading session.




Quote:
Scores of NSE-listed firms have already warned investors that their earnings will fall by 25 per cent or more in their current financial year, citing depressed demand and restrictions on travel and social activities, among other factors.


We have known this from at least 2014/2015 when I introduced guys here to Socionomics. But many were and continue to be dismissive of this powerful tool! Well, if you can't learn from history then you are bound to repeat the same. Human nature never changes. What is, is what has been and is what will be thither and hither
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3593 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 9:22:59 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
Quote:
NSE slides to 17-year low as stocks suffer huge losses

Quote:
Kenya’s stock market hit a new 17-year low in Tuesday’s trading as most stocks continued to suffer losses.

The benchmark NSE 20 Share Index closed at 1,794.6 points, a level last seen on April 28, 2003.

The performance has pushed the current bear market to five-and-a-half years, with the index falling 67.3 per cent from the peak of 5,491.3 points recorded on February 2, 2015.


Quote:
Since the year begun, Nation Media Group , Bamburi Cement and Nairobi Securities Exchange (the bourse operator) have seen their stocks drop the most by 73.1, 67.1 and 44.9 per cent to trade at Sh10.1, Sh28 and Sh6.7 respectively.

Safaricom, the largest company on the bourse, has also shed 14.7 per cent over the same period to close at Sh26.4 in yesterday’s trading session.




Quote:
Scores of NSE-listed firms have already warned investors that their earnings will fall by 25 per cent or more in their current financial year, citing depressed demand and restrictions on travel and social activities, among other factors.


We have known this from at least 2014/2015 when I introduced guys here to Socionomics. But many were and continue to be dismissive of this powerful tool! Well, if you can't learn from history then you are bound to repeat the same. Human nature never changes. What is, is what has been and is what will be thither and hither

BD Article
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3594 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 9:29:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.

Yes
We look at individual counters and position ourselves.


Stocks have fallen in lock step with the index. And the index is derived from individual stocks
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3595 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 9:32:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
Yaani wazuans are so feeling the pain of this bear market and being so wrong in their forecasts that they now question our analysis of the NSE 20 Share Index? This coming more than six years since we made the bold forecast for a huge bear market!? Mayooo!

In investing it is important to accept when you are wrong and change course. That is a lesson I myself have learnt painfully.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3596 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 9:37:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
Quote:
Loan defaults jump Sh30bn during lockdown

Quote:
Workers and businesses defaulted on loans worth Sh30 billion in the four months to June when Kenya imposed stringent measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

Data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows that non-performing loans (NPLs) rose to Sh379.9 billion in June, up from Sh349.9 billion at the end February — the sharpest four-month increase in recent history.

The NPL growth emerged in a period when Kenyans deferred payments on nearly a third of the bankers’ total loans, a pointer that defaults — which is credit that remains unpaid for more than 90 days — could have been worse without the credit rescheduling.

The ratio of NPLs rose from 12.7 per cent in February to 13.1 per cent — the highest since August 2007 when it stood at 14.41 per cent.

Industries and other businesses have since cut down on their activities in response to the infectious disease, leading to job cuts and unpaid leave for retained staff as profitable firms move into losses.



Link

Cut down on activities as is expected during periods of increasingly negative social mood.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Monk
#3597 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 9:52:14 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 184
mnandii wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.

Yes
We look at individual counters and position ourselves.


Stocks have fallen in lock step with the index. And the index is derived from individual stocks


@Mnandii You missed @Ericsson's point. My ABP on some counters I've held for long is below current price, the index notwithstanding.
wukan
#3598 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 10:06:42 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,450
Monk wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.

Yes
We look at individual counters and position ourselves.


Stocks have fallen in lock step with the index. And the index is derived from individual stocks


@Mnandii You missed @Ericsson's point. My ABP on some counters I've held for long is below current price, the index notwithstanding.


You are also missing the point that the market is giving you aggregate information through the index. Using ABP is like using current rent to calculate your rental yield on the purchase price of your house you bought in bururubu in 1990. You create too much distortion and you do not therefore employ capital in the proper way.
VituVingiSana
#3599 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 10:26:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,201
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.


d'oh! d'oh! so what exactly are you invested in if not the top 20 best performing countersLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Quote:
The NSE 20 Share Index is a price weight index calculated as a mean of the top 20 best performing counters. The constituent companies are selected based on a weighted market performance during the period under review based the following criteria:
 Trading activity measures i.e. market capitalization, shares traded, deals/liquidity and turnover
during the period under review are weighed in the ratio of 4:3:2:1 respectively;
 A company must have at least 20% of its shares quoted at the NSE;
 Must have a minimum market capitalization of Kshs. 20 million;
 A company should ideally be a blue chip with superior profitability and dividend record.

http://wazua.co.ke/forum...8011&p=5#post900230
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#3600 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 10:29:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,201
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
wukan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.


d'oh! d'oh! so what exactly are you invested in if not the top 20 best performing countersLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Quote:
The NSE 20 Share Index is a price weight index calculated as a mean of the top 20 best performing counters. The constituent companies are selected based on a weighted market performance during the period under review based the following criteria:
 Trading activity measures i.e. market capitalization, shares traded, deals/liquidity and turnover
during the period under review are weighed in the ratio of 4:3:2:1 respectively;
 A company must have at least 20% of its shares quoted at the NSE;
 Must have a minimum market capitalization of Kshs. 20 million;
 A company should ideally be a blue chip with superior profitability and dividend record.


@wukan
The list is outdated and needs a review.
Some of the constituent counters have been delisted,suspended from trading and some no longer shine like they used to 5 years ago.


If a constituent is delisted or suspended then it must be replaced with another. Unless there is something I don't get.
It is also important to note that the index represents the health of the overall market. It is, afterall, not just a number without basis surely!

But I understand the pain Sad many wazuans are facing.
It matters little to those who select the good stuff.
ARM was a 100% loss for me.
KK was a superb gain for me.

The difference was the weighting of each in my portfolio. KK was many, many, many times larger so the ARM loss was a small % of profits/gains from KK.

I do not know how the NSE Index weighed ARM or KK but I doubt it was weighted like mine.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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