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136 Pages<1234>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
mnandii
#21 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 11:17:56 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,557
sparkly wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mkeiy wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Jaina wrote:
@ Mnandii whats the conclusion to your analysis in layman terms


Sell your holdings and wait for the prices we last saw in March 2009. In other words the nse will fall by 47%.



Are you guys saying regardless of how the economy is managed,the Nse will always stick to that script?
I don't think so. There will be a correction but not as significant as 2009.

Yes. The script is waves of emotion. You see, all financial markets follow the pattern of human social mood. When people acting collectively have a positive mood, the same is reflected in how they act. So they push the price of the market up. When social mood becomes negative the price of financial iinstruments fall.

So the stock market is a gauge of social mood. And this discussion brings us to social causality. Events outside the market (interest rates, wars etc ) do not determine the path of the market. When CB change rates they are only REACTING to the market! E.G. How comes CB forecasts of the rate of growth are never met? And we continue to trust their ability to determine how the economy fairs?

Social mood determine the direction of the market.

Socionomics Explained


@Mnandii this is a theory and i am sure there are critiques to the theory.

My theory is that the so called boom & bust economic cycles are not inevitable paths but are triggered by the financial industry through monetary expansion & contraction cycles.


No problem. But I believe in order to get the best perspective, you should at least do more research on the subject. At that point then you will be in a very good position to state the merits and demerits.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#22 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 11:19:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,557
The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics:
The Socionomic Perspective

Robert R. Prechter, Jr. and Wayne D. Parker

Neoclassical economics does not offer a useful model of finance, because economic and financial
behavior have different motivational dynamics. The law of supply and demand operates among
rational valuers to produce equilibrium in the marketplace for utilitarian goods and services. The
efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a related model applied to financial markets. The socionomic
theory of finance (STF) posits that contextual differences between economics and finance produce
different behavior, so that in finance the law of supply and demand is irrelevant, and EMH is
inappropriate. In finance, uncertainty about valuations by other homogeneous agents induces
unconscious, non-rational herding, which follows endogenously regulated fluctuations in social
mood, which in turn determine financial fluctuations.
This dynamic produces non-mean-reverting
dynamism in financial markets, not equilibrium.

link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#23 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 11:27:54 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,557
mnandii wrote:
The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics:
The Socionomic Perspective

Robert R. Prechter, Jr. and Wayne D. Parker

Neoclassical economics does not offer a useful model of finance, because economic and financial
behavior have different motivational dynamics. The law of supply and demand operates among
rational valuers to produce equilibrium in the marketplace for utilitarian goods and services. The
efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a related model applied to financial markets. The socionomic
theory of finance (STF) posits that contextual differences between economics and finance produce
different behavior, so that in finance the law of supply and demand is irrelevant, and EMH is
inappropriate. In finance, uncertainty about valuations by other homogeneous agents induces
unconscious, non-rational herding, which follows endogenously regulated fluctuations in social
mood, which in turn determine financial fluctuations.
This dynamic produces non-mean-reverting
dynamism in financial markets, not equilibrium.

link

When a person buys bread, he derives immediate utility from it i.e he can EAT the bread and satisfy his hunger. When you buy shares, you get a share certificate. There is nothing that you can do with the share certificate which can provide immediate utility (i.e you can't EAT it, you can't LIVE in it etc). Your only hope is that someone else will be able to buy the shares from you at a higher price. And that's why the valuations in Financial markets differ from, say, the value of a car.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mkonomtupu
#24 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 11:54:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,000
Location: River Road
Good stuff @mnadii, as a fundamentals I don't rely on the cartoons but I moved out of the equities into the money markets as the general economic mood didn't look good for equities. In my view equities will generally be flat market over the next two years, but all the same a significant correction is welcome
mchambuzi
#25 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 3:19:52 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Technically if you are bullish safcom you should be bullish NSE20, the two track each other because of the weighted average.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
mchambuzi
#26 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 3:35:12 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
EABL Bullish set-up
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
Pesa Nane
#27 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 7:06:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 3,311
Location: 08c
mchambuzi wrote:
EABL Bullish set-up

C&P

Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
mnunuzi
#28 Posted : Monday, March 24, 2014 8:56:43 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 34
Pesa Nane wrote:
mchambuzi wrote:
EABL Bullish set-up

C&P


Thanks. That's a beautiful strong rejection smile
mnandii
#29 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2014 12:56:29 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,557
Get free two weeks trial of Elliott Wave International Publications. The Financial Forecast service costs USD 59 per month. If, toward the end of the two weeks you feel the subscriptions are not for you,, then you can e-mail Elliott Wave International (EWI) to cancel your subscription. You will not be charged a dime.

link

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Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#30 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2014 1:02:44 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,557
What Are Elliott Waves?

For over a century, keen market observers have noted that the financial markets tend to follow patterns. In the 1930s an accountant named R.N. Elliott discovered and chronicled the definitive list. Across the generations since, many of the financial industry's most successful strategists and traders have used "Elliott's waves" to predict the markets' moves. Today the Elliott Wave Principle is one of the most established forms of technical analysis in the world. With its analysts covering every major financial market around the globe, Elliott Wave International is the most recognized name in its field and its work is prized by both professionals in the largest financial firms and individual investors alike.

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Bob has been writing The Elliott Wave Theorist continuously since 1979, making it one of the longest-running and best-known market publications in the business.

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became co-editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast with its inaugural issue in July 1999. Steve also edits the M-W-F Short Term Update and is a recognized speaker at major news outlets and financial conferences. He features regularly on CNBC, CNN, Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, and USA today

PETER KENDALL
joined EWI as a researcher in 1992 and has contributed to The Elliott Wave Theorist since 1995. He has been co-editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast since its inception in July 1999.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#31 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2014 1:09:12 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,557



Golden Ratio in Human Being


Golden Ratio in DNA


Fibonacci Mathematics


Human Body and the Golden Ratio
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#32 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2014 1:13:51 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,557
Applying Fibonacci to Stock Market Patterns
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#33 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2014 1:21:12 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,557
mkonomtupu wrote:
Good stuff @mnadii, as a fundamentals I don't rely on the cartoons but I moved out of the equities into the money markets as the general economic mood didn't look good for equities. In my view equities will generally be flat market over the next two years, but all the same a significant correction is welcome


Good for you. I think it is the better at the moment especially with Kenya where you can't short the market.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
markward
#34 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2014 9:46:27 AM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 3/25/2014
Posts: 1
My theory is that the so called boom & bust economic


funny gifs
mnandii
#35 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2014 10:18:22 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,557
In Elliot Wave Analysis there are only three RULES to keep in mind. Rules should never be broken.

RULE 1: The second wave never retraces more than 100% of the first wave.

RULE 2: The third wave is never the shortest wave among waves one, three and five.

RULE 3: The fourth wave should not enter the territory of the first wave.

Let's see a Safcom chart:



In this safcom chart:

Wave i = (6.10 - 2.50) = 3.60

Wave ii = (6.10 - 2.70) = 3.40

Wave iii = (11.20 - 2.70)= 8.50

Applying Golden Ratio in Wave iii

Wave iii @11.20 =(Wave i X 1.618)+2.70
100% ACCURACY!!!

Wave iv = (11.20-9.60)= 1.60

Therefore, Wave iv is approximately half of Wave ii.

Wave v = 12.80-9.60 = 3.20

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#36 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2014 10:35:55 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,557
Quote:
In a move to encourage foreign investor trading, the CMA master plan proposes removing the requirement for pre-funding, which can then allow short selling.


Direct Trading Window
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
SittingPretty
#37 Posted : Tuesday, April 01, 2014 11:38:55 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/16/2013
Posts: 123
Location: MSA
@Mnandii how about extrapolating the same with KenyaRe see if the same holds!
Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
mnandii
#38 Posted : Tuesday, April 01, 2014 3:54:31 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,557
SittingPretty wrote:
@Mnandii how about extrapolating the same with KenyaRe see if the same holds!

You mean applying Elliott Waves to the Kenya Re share? Ok. Give me alittle time.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#39 Posted : Tuesday, April 01, 2014 4:44:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,557


Just like the other counters in NSE it appears Kenya Re has also done five waves up (i.e from the 19/12/2011 low of 5.83). Therefore, a large correction is due whcih should take the share to at least 13.10 level (wave 4). Notice that the share has been making new highs yet RSI has been diverging.

NB: Considering the almost vertical move to the 20.75 level and then the sideways move of late, wave 5 may not be complete yet. So a small move above 20.75 is still in the cards.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Angelica _ann
#40 Posted : Tuesday, April 01, 2014 4:53:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 7,387
Ati a correction to 13 bob, you will kill some of us! :smile -) smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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