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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum [1443]
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73 Pages<1234>»
The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Aguytrying
#21 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 2:37:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 4,977
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
KK made 2 decisions after the 2012 debacle.

1) Reduce debt both KES and USD. In light of the recent interest rate increase, this will save them a lot of money.
2) Reduce or eliminate naked exposure to USD liabilities. This will be huge for KK going into 2015. There will be some exposure since fuel imports are priced in USD but sold in KES but that's for products they are going to sell.

Let the good times roll...

whether fuel is purchased in USD and sold in ksh the pricing formula is constant, it's the donkey (consumer )to carry the burden marketers can only suffer reduced sales


Nothing better than learning from your mistakes and benefiting from them big time.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mlennyma
#22 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 2:55:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,398
Location: nairobi
It's very likely we might see 7.50
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Realtreaty
#23 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 7:54:58 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 1,430
With the high inflation and falling shilling the govt would want a higher price as it increses the percentage the govt pockets.
KK need to concentrate on building storage capacities for both refined and crude to help govt and private sector cope with storage. This is the next frontier where Warehousing will be the next money making after EastAfrica oils start flowing.
mlennyma
#24 Posted : Monday, August 03, 2015 2:47:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,398
Location: nairobi
Don't you think we are holding well so far? ?the results can tear down the support or boost it.which way kenol past H1 results? ???
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
hisah
#25 Posted : Monday, August 03, 2015 3:14:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,791
mlennyma wrote:
It's very likely we might see 7.50

Line in the sand. Break below will indicate that sub 7 is likely. KK needs to break above 9 with vigour to confirm that bulls are taking over.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mlennyma
#26 Posted : Monday, August 03, 2015 5:00:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,398
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
It's very likely we might see 7.50

Line in the sand. Break below will indicate that sub 7 is likely. KK needs to break above 9 with vigour to confirm that bulls are taking over.

One bull must be scared when the whole market is full of bears,meaning however sound kk can be,the market mood has an upper hand.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#27 Posted : Monday, August 03, 2015 9:20:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 4,977
mlennyma wrote:
hisah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
It's very likely we might see 7.50

Line in the sand. Break below will indicate that sub 7 is likely. KK needs to break above 9 with vigour to confirm that bulls are taking over.

One bull must be scared when the whole market is full of bears,meaning however sound kk can be,the market mood has an upper hand.


That support at 8-7.50 is so palpable if that breaks down it will get nasty. Coz it can go anywhere.

But the company is performing well so as share price goes down value is increasing
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Boris Boyka
#28 Posted : Monday, August 03, 2015 10:41:24 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,976
Location: Here
Aguytrying wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
hisah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
It's very likely we might see 7.50

Line in the sand. Break below will indicate that sub 7 is likely. KK needs to break above 9 with vigour to confirm that bulls are taking over.

One bull must be scared when the whole market is full of bears,meaning however sound kk can be,the market mood has an upper hand.


That support at 8-7.50 is so palpable if that breaks down it will get nasty. Coz it can go anywhere.

But the company is performing well so as share price goes down value is increasing

Am watching the 2 yrs timeline still valid. Kenyans Killer smile
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
dunkang
#29 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2015 12:07:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,693
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
I just can't understand why KK would be trading at a price of 8.30/- in August 2015 compared to the notorious 2011. In 2011 it was always between 9.50/- and 10.50/-.

Anything negative thing that has happened to KK am not aware of?
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

mlennyma
#30 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2015 2:05:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,398
Location: nairobi
My system showed 0 supply at one point today, last seen during puma times,the demand side suggests leaked H1 results.May be
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#31 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2015 2:43:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 4,977
mlennyma wrote:
My system showed 0 supply at one point today, last seen during puma times,the demand side suggests leaked H1 results.May be


My thoughts excatly. The excitement must be due to results. I remember last time KK rallied during 2011 bear. but no puma in sight for that
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
shiznit
#32 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2015 3:57:53 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/21/2013
Posts: 39
Location: KENYA
If you look at recent annual reports, they show a significant change in top shareholdings of KK. Maybe someone who has more in-depth knowledge of the shareholding structure now can disprove me, but I think there has been/is significant case shares changing hands here. Someone with big pockets; strategic investor perhaps? Iko kitu.
β€œThe market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
VituVingiSana
#33 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2015 7:49:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 13,006
Location: Nairobi
shiznit wrote:
If you look at recent annual reports, they show a significant change in top shareholdings of KK. Maybe someone who has more in-depth knowledge of the shareholding structure now can disprove me, but I think there has been/is significant case shares changing hands here. Someone with big pockets; strategic investor perhaps? Iko kitu.

A major shareholder is selling.
Since 2011 I think 2 related shareholders have exited completely.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Realtreaty
#34 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2015 8:53:59 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 1,430
If KK becomes profitable and price remains at 12-15 with dividend of 1 Kes annually I would still buy.
Soon situation will change and price may move up to average 14.50 with Dividends moving up from 45 cents ton 1Kes.
Aguytrying
#35 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2015 11:19:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 4,977
Realtreaty wrote:
If KK becomes profitable and price remains at 12-15 with dividend of 1 Kes annually I would still buy.
Soon situation will change and price may move up to average 14.50 with Dividends moving up from 45 cents ton 1Kes.


You really have to stop smoking that stuff. What was
Kk dividend for 2014? it wasn't 45 cents.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
heri
#36 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 3:00:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 497
Location: nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
My system showed 0 supply at one point today, last seen during puma times,the demand side suggests leaked H1 results.May be


@mlennyma did the arbitration that has been going on between KK and KPRL ever come to an end?
mlennyma
#37 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 3:07:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,398
Location: nairobi
heri wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
My system showed 0 supply at one point today, last seen during puma times,the demand side suggests leaked H1 results.May be


@mlennyma did the arbitration that has been going on between KK and KPRL ever come to an end?

the last time I heard of it is when kpc wanted abdullahi kicked out as arbitrator,I can't rule out, out of court agreement,if not so the normal kenyan judicial delays
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Afroblk
#38 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2015 8:17:43 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/3/2010
Posts: 68
Realtreaty wrote:
If KK becomes profitable and price remains at 12-15 with dividend of 1 Kes annually I would still buy.
Soon situation will change and price may move up to average 14.50 with Dividends moving up from 45 cents ton 1Kes.


I don't think the results will be impressive...look at all the major oil corporations around the world...they're all reporting less profits if not losses...KK will not be any different.
Knowledge is contagious...Infect truth!
VituVingiSana
#39 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2015 8:50:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 13,006
Location: Nairobi
heri wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
My system showed 0 supply at one point today, last seen during puma times,the demand side suggests leaked H1 results.May be


@mlennyma did the arbitration that has been going on between KK and KPRL ever come to an end?

KK and KPRL was settled. There was an article or press release about it.
There is an industry-wide settlement (Yield Shift) that hasn't been settled. That affects everyone.

KK and KPC are still at it. Abdullahi ruled in favor of KK. KPC appealed. Some stupid judge (musinga) claimed the 6bn award was too much for the economy. [KK lost 6bn in 2012 and survived. KQ lost 45bn in 3 years. Kenya's economy hasn't collapsed]

Then KPC wanted the award reduced. KK protested. And it goes on I guess.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#40 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2015 9:39:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 13,006
Location: Nairobi
Afroblk wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
If KK becomes profitable and price remains at 12-15 with dividend of 1 Kes annually I would still buy.
Soon situation will change and price may move up to average 14.50 with Dividends moving up from 45 cents ton 1Kes.


I don't think the results will be impressive...look at all the major oil corporations around the world...they're all reporting less profits if not losses...KK will not be any different.

KK is not an oil corporation.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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