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KenolKobil 2018 and beyond
VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Sunday, March 04, 2018 6:26:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,917
Location: Nairobi
The "2015" subject header has been overtaken by events hence the new thread.

KK's financial strength has changed substantially since 2015:
- Disposal of loss-making assets in Tanzania and DRC
- Substantial reduction in the level of debt. [Effectively the KES debt is zero]
- Consolidation of the business followed by expansion [new stations]
- KK is back in the OTS market with USD financiers willing to lend
- Cheaper financing from Dutch banks (vs French banks)
- KK is back into jet fuel in a big way [except supplying KQ which is still cash-strapped]
- Provision/settlement for KPRL/KPC debt and lawsuits
- Biwott is no more

KK is entering a new era of profitable growth [though there's a limit unless KK can expand regionally] and there's potential for a takeover given Ohana has cleaned the books and Biwott's kids may have little interest in "owning" KK.

There are some challenges e.g.
- The VAT coming in Sep will increase financing costs
- The VAT would increase the price which will lower demand
- The VAT will make smuggling/dumping of fuel more attractive. The KRA cannot stamp out smuggling when its officers (& police) are part of the problem
- Competition esp Vivo and Total

My Bottomline: KK will do well with or without a takeover.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#2 Posted : Sunday, March 04, 2018 8:47:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,696
Location: NAIROBI
Same should be done to kq subject header.
Kk needs then to attract institutional investors, Mutual funds to be the top shareholders
Realtreaty
#3 Posted : Sunday, March 04, 2018 9:52:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,021
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.

mlennyma
#4 Posted : Monday, March 05, 2018 10:40:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,865
Location: nairobi
Another 30m shares before 11am,grabbing 60% of Kenya's fuel import tenders means alot.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Ericsson
#5 Posted : Monday, March 05, 2018 10:41:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,696
Location: NAIROBI
By the time this issue is done and dusted,the company will be majority owned by foreign institutional shareholders.
Ebenyo
#6 Posted : Monday, March 05, 2018 10:58:11 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,372
Location: Kitale
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
tandich
#7 Posted : Monday, March 05, 2018 3:27:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 108
mlennyma wrote:
Another 30m shares before 11am,grabbing 60% of Kenya's fuel import tenders means alot.


There must be a story to these large trades in the past few months. I wish we could find out
Aguytrying
#8 Posted : Monday, March 05, 2018 7:38:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,015
Kk is doing well. I only wish they could attract customers like total and shell do, I find their stations except a few unattractive. However financial performance, management is top notch.
Remember we are back to takeover price range. With Ohana at the helm were in safe hands
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mlennyma
#9 Posted : Monday, March 05, 2018 8:21:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,865
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Kk is doing well. I only wish they could attract customers like total and shell do, I find their stations except a few unattractive. However financial performance, management is top notch.
Remember we are back to takeover price range. With Ohana at the helm were in safe hands

What remains is to force him buy shares,he said he doesn't trust buying shares
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Tuesday, March 06, 2018 7:44:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,917
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Same should be done to kq subject header.
Kk needs then to attract institutional investors, Mutual funds to be the top shareholders

My gut feeling is that as the heirs of the ill-gotten wealth want to spend it... the shares will be sold and KK's shareholding will change. Then there's the constant rumor of a possible takeover.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Tuesday, March 06, 2018 7:52:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,917
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Kk is doing well. I only wish they could attract customers like total and shell do, I find their stations except a few unattractive. However financial performance, management is top notch.
Remember we are back to takeover price range. With Ohana at the helm were in safe hands

As a KK shareholder and customer... I admit, KK have the UGLIEST stations out of the Big 3. d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!
Total and Shell have stations that are bright, attractive, warm...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Tuesday, March 06, 2018 7:54:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,917
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.

KK values land/properties on a historical basis so some of the properties they own may be worth a lot more...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ebenyo
#13 Posted : Tuesday, March 06, 2018 12:08:33 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,372
Location: Kitale
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.

KK values land/properties on a historical basis so some of the properties they own may be worth a lot more...



There is need for those information to be reflected in financial reports.Shareholders are not investing based on assumption.They invest on actual facts.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ericsson
#14 Posted : Tuesday, March 06, 2018 12:09:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,696
Location: NAIROBI
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.

KK values land/properties on a historical basis so some of the properties they own may be worth a lot more...



There is need for those information to be reflected in financial reports.Shareholders are not investing based on assumption.They invest on actual facts.


Read the annual report
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Wednesday, March 07, 2018 12:46:23 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,917
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.

KK values land/properties on a historical basis so some of the properties they own may be worth a lot more...


There is need for those information to be reflected in financial reports.Shareholders are not investing based on assumption.They invest on actual facts.
It's in the annual report. They have a choice about which options they would like re: valuation of assets.
Unga has "historical" valuation of their Prepaid Operating Leasehold (27mn) but also show the revaluation as of 2013 of 878mn.
Likewise, KK could do the same but they need not.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#16 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 2:15:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,865
Location: nairobi
This share has behaved like there is some leaked information to the big guys as we head to the results. ..I will be surprised if there isn't.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
watesh
#17 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 2:26:27 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 692
Location: Kenya
mlennyma wrote:
This share has behaved like there is some leaked information to the big guys as we head to the results. ..I will be surprised if there isn't.

My bet is the dividend will be huge after the government allowed them to do some cost recovery last year
VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 5:20:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,917
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
This share has behaved like there is some leaked information to the big guys as we head to the results. ..I will be surprised if there isn't.

My bet is the dividend will be huge after the government allowed them to do some cost recovery last year

Cost recovery for?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
watesh
#19 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 7:21:50 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 692
Location: Kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
This share has behaved like there is some leaked information to the big guys as we head to the results. ..I will be surprised if there isn't.

My bet is the dividend will be huge after the government allowed them to do some cost recovery last year

Cost recovery for?

This --> https://www.standardmedi...el-over-next-six-months
peep
#20 Posted : Friday, March 09, 2018 12:20:19 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/30/2009
Posts: 42
Ebenyo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.

A bonus can't lower the value of a stock. Its a transfer of money from retained earnings to issued stock, both owned by the same person. Like moving cash from the left pocket to the right one.
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