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Housing Fund Shenanigans
tom_boy
#1 Posted : Wednesday, January 30, 2019 6:29:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 662
Once again our guy at the top has conceived a plan to rob the poor so as to house the rich. Meanwhile, contractors, govt wheeler dealers will be running laughing all the way to the bank.

Housing fund is a new low in looting using contractors.

Kenyas demographics are such that 70% earn less than 50,000 a month. What mortgage can a 50k a month salary pay to house a family.

It goes without saying that 80% will contribute for houses that only the few earning 100k and above can afford to buy.

Within no time, there will be an oversupply of houses that the bulk of salaried persons cannot take up thus only those in biz and higher salaries will eventually benefit. So the rich will continue to buy more property at decent prices while the poor will continue renting and contributing to build houses they can never afford to buy.

Meanwhile, property market will go to the dogs.

What *#*@& are running this govt.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
Superprime1
#2 Posted : Wednesday, January 30, 2019 8:44:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/2/2018
Posts: 182
tom_boy wrote:
Once again our guy at the top has conceived a plan to rob the poor so as to house the rich. Meanwhile, contractors, govt wheeler dealers will be running laughing all the way to the bank.

Housing fund is a new low in looting using contractors.

Kenyas demographics are such that 70% earn less than 50,000 a month. What mortgage can a 50k a month salary pay to house a family.

It goes without saying that 80% will contribute for houses that only the few earning 100k and above can afford to buy.

Within no time, there will be an oversupply of houses that the bulk of salaried persons cannot take up thus only those in biz and higher salaries will eventually benefit. So the rich will continue to buy more property at decent prices while the poor will continue renting and contributing to build houses they can never afford to buy.

Meanwhile, property market will go to the dogs.

What *#*@& are running this govt.

You've even put it politely. What have they to show for the tenant-purchase programmes and affordable housing done by the National Housing Corporation? They self-allocated all of them along with their buddies and mpango-wa-kandos. Only a revolution can save us.
mulla
#3 Posted : Thursday, January 31, 2019 3:59:25 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 268
Superprime1 wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
Once again our guy at the top has conceived a plan to rob the poor so as to house the rich. Meanwhile, contractors, govt wheeler dealers will be running laughing all the way to the bank.

Housing fund is a new low in looting using contractors.

Kenyas demographics are such that 70% earn less than 50,000 a month. What mortgage can a 50k a month salary pay to house a family.

It goes without saying that 80% will contribute for houses that only the few earning 100k and above can afford to buy.

Within no time, there will be an oversupply of houses that the bulk of salaried persons cannot take up thus only those in biz and higher salaries will eventually benefit. So the rich will continue to buy more property at decent prices while the poor will continue renting and contributing to build houses they can never afford to buy.

Meanwhile, property market will go to the dogs.

What *#*@& are running this govt.

You've even put it politely. What have they to show for the tenant-purchase programmes and affordable housing done by the National Housing Corporation? They self-allocated all of them along with their buddies and mpango-wa-kandos. Only a revolution can save us.

Housing fund is b******t...SMEs struggle to pay their share of NSSF now they are adding this. We learnt only recently of NHIF looting, and as if they should have learnt from NYS 1 an even bigger NYS 2 happened. Lets wait for 5 years to hear of the housing fund scandal.
limanika
#4 Posted : Sunday, February 03, 2019 8:02:14 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 1,881
Our economists have failed us. Nobody even the commentators in fourth estate can see the hole govt is digging?

If there was anything urgent the govt needed to do, forget Big 4, is to come up with strategies to create productive jobs (not nys type) for thousands of youths graduating every year. Then, they will be able to rent houses and eventually build / buy for themselves. You don't create jobs by killing the property market coz that what will likely happen if AHP succeeds

If plan 'succeeds', there will be an oversupply of houses at below market prices. Rent for existing properties will drop. Suddenly, investors who borrowed to build rentals can't pay loans. Prices for existing pre affordable housing property will drop. Suddenly, banks can't sell property to recover loans / mortgages in case of defaulters. Welcome to financial crisis. Since independence we have not had a govt that has sunk lower in terms of economic planning.

Right here we arm chair economists could tell (and commented as such) that govt would get nowhere with projects such as:

Galana kulalu, annuity road program, laptop, 5000MW plan, 47 stadia, etc etc and now BRT. As sure as sunrise, they failed flat as expected. Do we have economists in govt? And do they have a voice? Are they given opportunity to speak/critique govt plans? Are they listened to?

hardwood
#5 Posted : Sunday, February 03, 2019 11:40:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/28/2015
Posts: 8,537
limanika wrote:
Our economists have failed us. Nobody even the commentators in fourth estate can see the hole govt is digging?

If there was anything urgent the govt needed to do, forget Big 4, is to come up with strategies to create productive jobs (not nys type) for thousands of youths graduating every year. Then, they will be able to rent houses and eventually build / buy for themselves. You don't create jobs by killing the property market coz that what will likely happen if AHP succeeds

If plan 'succeeds', there will be an oversupply of houses at below market prices. Rent for existing properties will drop. Suddenly, investors who borrowed to build rentals can't pay loans. Prices for existing pre affordable housing property will drop. Suddenly, banks can't sell property to recover loans / mortgages in case of defaulters. Welcome to financial crisis. Since independence we have not had a govt that has sunk lower in terms of economic planning.

Right here we arm chair economists could tell (and commented as such) that govt would get nowhere with projects such as:

Galana kulalu, annuity road program, laptop, 5000MW plan, 47 stadia, etc etc and now BRT. As sure as sunrise, they failed flat as expected. Do we have economists in govt? And do they have a voice? Are they given opportunity to speak/critique govt plans? Are they listened to?



Some seasoned economist (PhD) told me this is the worst govt we have ever had. That the duo never listen to experts and professionals.
limanika
#6 Posted : Sunday, February 03, 2019 3:08:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 1,881
hardwood wrote:
limanika wrote:
Our economists have failed us. Nobody even the commentators in fourth estate can see the hole govt is digging?

If there was anything urgent the govt needed to do, forget Big 4, is to come up with strategies to create productive jobs (not nys type) for thousands of youths graduating every year. Then, they will be able to rent houses and eventually build / buy for themselves. You don't create jobs by killing the property market coz that what will likely happen if AHP succeeds

If plan 'succeeds', there will be an oversupply of houses at below market prices. Rent for existing properties will drop. Suddenly, investors who borrowed to build rentals can't pay loans. Prices for existing pre affordable housing property will drop. Suddenly, banks can't sell property to recover loans / mortgages in case of defaulters. Welcome to financial crisis. Since independence we have not had a govt that has sunk lower in terms of economic planning.

Right here we arm chair economists could tell (and commented as such) that govt would get nowhere with projects such as:

Galana kulalu, annuity road program, laptop, 5000MW plan, 47 stadia, etc etc and now BRT. As sure as sunrise, they failed flat as expected. Do we have economists in govt? And do they have a voice? Are they given opportunity to speak/critique govt plans? Are they listened to?



Some seasoned economist (PhD) told me this is the worst govt we have ever had. That the duo never listen to experts and professionals.

I also heard from someone that if you ever went to Kibaki and started talking some economic concepts, he would stop what he was doing, sit up straight and listen keenly. If you started gossip and politics, he would dismiss you outright and act as if you're not in the room. The dynamic duo are not so. If you talk economics, they dismiss you. If you talk politics, they sit up straight and listen!
alma1
#7 Posted : Sunday, February 03, 2019 3:25:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/19/2015
Posts: 2,371
Location: hapo
limanika wrote:
hardwood wrote:
limanika wrote:
Our economists have failed us. Nobody even the commentators in fourth estate can see the hole govt is digging?

If there was anything urgent the govt needed to do, forget Big 4, is to come up with strategies to create productive jobs (not nys type) for thousands of youths graduating every year. Then, they will be able to rent houses and eventually build / buy for themselves. You don't create jobs by killing the property market coz that what will likely happen if AHP succeeds

If plan 'succeeds', there will be an oversupply of houses at below market prices. Rent for existing properties will drop. Suddenly, investors who borrowed to build rentals can't pay loans. Prices for existing pre affordable housing property will drop. Suddenly, banks can't sell property to recover loans / mortgages in case of defaulters. Welcome to financial crisis. Since independence we have not had a govt that has sunk lower in terms of economic planning.

Right here we arm chair economists could tell (and commented as such) that govt would get nowhere with projects such as:

Galana kulalu, annuity road program, laptop, 5000MW plan, 47 stadia, etc etc and now BRT. As sure as sunrise, they failed flat as expected. Do we have economists in govt? And do they have a voice? Are they given opportunity to speak/critique govt plans? Are they listened to?



Some seasoned economist (PhD) told me this is the worst govt we have ever had. That the duo never listen to experts and professionals.

I also heard from someone that if you ever went to Kibaki and started talking some economic concepts, he would stop what he was doing, sit up straight and listen keenly. If you started gossip and politics, he would dismiss you outright and act as if you're not in the room. The dynamic duo are not so. If you talk economics, they dismiss you. If you talk politics, they sit up straight and listen!



I have been here for years talking about this njumbiree useless thing.

Now things are starting to be clear to everyone.

You can't run a gov't based on rhetoric and kutangatanga and drunken roadside talk.

The economy is in shit. But every day they come up with even sillier announcements. From seat belts on Matatus, to sijui new IDs...Kwanza that one is absolutely crazy. To no cars in the CBD days...To new stadiums that will never see the light of day.

Now housing...Like seriously. Who is that stupid fella who's going to buy a house sold by njumbiree? Si you go and buy Gakuyo or Cyntonn shares. At least there you have no expectations of being not scammed.

Honestly.

I am tired of this gov't. Most useless. No wonder we have Pastor Owour amongst us. We have been f***ed so many ways we can believe that Aly Khan Sachu is a guru and Ruto truly bought Weston cleanly...Heck let's go vote for him.

Pathetic gov't.

End of my rant.

Now let me go invest in Cyntonn.
Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?
tom_boy
#8 Posted : Sunday, February 03, 2019 7:49:43 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 662
My scenarios for housing fund are as follows

1. The money raised is used to build houses but the quantity built will not come anywhere near the projected 500k. Most of the cash disappears in "unfathomable " ways.

2. They build many houses beyond dust bowl. This comes with no additional infrastructure for transport. No body is inclined to go there so we get ghost estates for a long while.

3. They actually build the houses as planned 500k per year in urban centres and completely collapse the housing / real estate market. ( highly unlikely). How will Northlands city get buyers seeing this is a Kenyatta family project.

4. Housing fund cash is diverted to pay loans while building bare minimum units and giving many excuses. This govt could not roll out computers in schools, a fairly easy thing to do. Now, they tell us they cal roll out massive housing projects involving multiple ministries, land compensation issues etc and all in the next 3yrs, yah right and pigs will fly.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
limanika
#9 Posted : Monday, February 04, 2019 7:09:35 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 1,881
tom_boy wrote:
My scenarios for housing fund are as follows

1. The money raised is used to build houses but the quantity built will not come anywhere near the projected 500k. Most of the cash disappears in "unfathomable " ways.

2. They build many houses beyond dust bowl. This comes with no additional infrastructure for transport. No body is inclined to go there so we get ghost estates for a long while.

3. They actually build the houses as planned 500k per year in urban centres and completely collapse the housing / real estate market. ( highly unlikely). How will Northlands city get buyers seeing this is a Kenyatta family project.

4. Housing fund cash is diverted to pay loans while building bare minimum units and giving many excuses. This govt could not roll out computers in schools, a fairly easy thing to do. Now, they tell us they cal roll out massive housing projects involving multiple ministries, land compensation issues etc and all in the next 3yrs, yah right and pigs will fly.


Your scenario 4 most likely, though am yet to understand what the fund is meant for in the first place since the houses will be built by private investors, and the buyers will buy via mortgage meaning they still pay full price despite contributing to the fund.

The other thing i do not understand is how you can talk of affordable housing or below market price housing yet you cant purchase construction materials below market price, you cant pay labour below market, and house sizes have been standardized by the code so you cant build smaller houses beyond certain sizes.

#Economics 101 someone tell the govt that the reason houses cost what they cost is that developers have to make profit, pay taxes, pay approval fees, and pay salaries for people employed in the entire supply chain..from quarries to designers to fundis. If you wake up one morning and give everyone a house, you don't need to be rocket scientist to tell me what impact that will have on the economy
Swenani
#10 Posted : Monday, February 04, 2019 11:13:51 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 12,962
Location: Vacuum
limanika wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
My scenarios for housing fund are as follows

1. The money raised is used to build houses but the quantity built will not come anywhere near the projected 500k. Most of the cash disappears in "unfathomable " ways.

2. They build many houses beyond dust bowl. This comes with no additional infrastructure for transport. No body is inclined to go there so we get ghost estates for a long while.

3. They actually build the houses as planned 500k per year in urban centres and completely collapse the housing / real estate market. ( highly unlikely). How will Northlands city get buyers seeing this is a Kenyatta family project.

4. Housing fund cash is diverted to pay loans while building bare minimum units and giving many excuses. This govt could not roll out computers in schools, a fairly easy thing to do. Now, they tell us they cal roll out massive housing projects involving multiple ministries, land compensation issues etc and all in the next 3yrs, yah right and pigs will fly.


Your scenario 4 most likely, though am yet to understand what the fund is meant for in the first place since the houses will be built by private investors, and the buyers will buy via mortgage meaning they still pay full price despite contributing to the fund.

The other thing i do not understand is how you can talk of affordable housing or below market price housing yet you cant purchase construction materials below market price, you cant pay labour below market, and house sizes have been standardized by the code so you cant build smaller houses beyond certain sizes.

#Economics 101 someone tell the govt that the reason houses cost what they cost is that developers have to make profit, pay taxes, pay approval fees, and pay salaries for people employed in the entire supply chain..from quarries to designers to fundis. If you wake up one morning and give everyone a house, you don't need to be rocket scientist to tell me what impact that will have on the economy


My overstanding of why the units will be cheaper is taht
1. Government will provide free land to developers
2. Developers will be allowed to set aside a percentage of free land to develop and sell houses at market rates on cash basis alone to help them recoup and make profit margins
3.Access to cheaper financing to developers from KMRC.
4.Government will be responsible for infrastructure(sewage, water, electricity, roads.
5. Government will guarantee uptake of the houses through the NHDF
Poverty is the root of all evil
wukan
#11 Posted : Monday, February 04, 2019 1:29:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,053
limanika wrote:
Our economists have failed us. Nobody even the commentators in fourth estate can see the hole govt is digging?

If there was anything urgent the govt needed to do, forget Big 4, is to come up with strategies to create productive jobs (not nys type) for thousands of youths graduating every year. Then, they will be able to rent houses and eventually build / buy for themselves. You don't create jobs by killing the property market coz that what will likely happen if AHP succeeds

If plan 'succeeds', there will be an oversupply of houses at below market prices. Rent for existing properties will drop. Suddenly, investors who borrowed to build rentals can't pay loans. Prices for existing pre affordable housing property will drop. Suddenly, banks can't sell property to recover loans / mortgages in case of defaulters. Welcome to financial crisis. Since independence we have not had a govt that has sunk lower in terms of economic planning.

Right here we arm chair economists could tell (and commented as such) that govt would get nowhere with projects such as:

Galana kulalu, annuity road program, laptop, 5000MW plan, 47 stadia, etc etc and now BRT. As sure as sunrise, they failed flat as expected. Do we have economists in govt? And do they have a voice? Are they given opportunity to speak/critique govt plans? Are they listened to?



Of all the Uhuru plans the one I fully support is the affordable housing. From the big picture Uhuru is doing what man Jomo did for the landless in the 60's. A house today in urban centre is like a shamba back then. It gives people a stake in the economy unlike the shamba it gives them obligations to repay loans(they have to be productive). Giving people shambas in the 60's only made people into subsistence farmers. The lucky ones are the ones who came to urban centres. I actually think that AHP should succeed so that the rural idlers calling themselves farmers move out to urban areas and the rural areas become empty and proper land consolidation can be done for good profitable farming.

I don't think you will have an oversupply any time soon. It will not destroy the property market(Turkey has been doing AHP for over a decade). The market currently does not cater for the lower end of the market. The entry point for middle class home is 10m not a lot of the working population will afford that amount. You have a situation where the middle class is renting premises which ideally should go to lower income households(e.g. Kibera highrise). There are areas in kiambu, kitengela, Athi river, kikuyu which used to quite cheap but the entry of the middle class pushed rents higher.

Lower rent will also result in higher savings for households. If you were spending 20k and the market rent drops to 15K due to AHP then that's a good saving. For the landlords in Pipeline and Embakasi who were building vertical slums without amenities then too bad for them.






FRM2011
#12 Posted : Monday, February 04, 2019 2:02:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/5/2010
Posts: 2,251
Swenani wrote:
limanika wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
My scenarios for housing fund are as follows

1. The money raised is used to build houses but the quantity built will not come anywhere near the projected 500k. Most of the cash disappears in "unfathomable " ways.

2. They build many houses beyond dust bowl. This comes with no additional infrastructure for transport. No body is inclined to go there so we get ghost estates for a long while.

3. They actually build the houses as planned 500k per year in urban centres and completely collapse the housing / real estate market. ( highly unlikely). How will Northlands city get buyers seeing this is a Kenyatta family project.

4. Housing fund cash is diverted to pay loans while building bare minimum units and giving many excuses. This govt could not roll out computers in schools, a fairly easy thing to do. Now, they tell us they cal roll out massive housing projects involving multiple ministries, land compensation issues etc and all in the next 3yrs, yah right and pigs will fly.


Your scenario 4 most likely, though am yet to understand what the fund is meant for in the first place since the houses will be built by private investors, and the buyers will buy via mortgage meaning they still pay full price despite contributing to the fund.

The other thing i do not understand is how you can talk of affordable housing or below market price housing yet you cant purchase construction materials below market price, you cant pay labour below market, and house sizes have been standardized by the code so you cant build smaller houses beyond certain sizes.

#Economics 101 someone tell the govt that the reason houses cost what they cost is that developers have to make profit, pay taxes, pay approval fees, and pay salaries for people employed in the entire supply chain..from quarries to designers to fundis. If you wake up one morning and give everyone a house, you don't need to be rocket scientist to tell me what impact that will have on the economy


My overstanding of why the units will be cheaper is taht
1. Government will provide free land to developers
2. Developers will be allowed to set aside a percentage of free land to develop and sell houses at market rates on cash basis alone to help them recoup and make profit margins
3.Access to cheaper financing to developers from KMRC.
4.Government will be responsible for infrastructure(sewage, water, electricity, roads.
5. Government will guarantee uptake of the houses through the NHDF


@swenani, you have just painted a rosy picture of what would happen under Kibaki. Not Jubilee. These crooks actually want to build houses. The obvious incentive being that they will get their kickbacks from the contractors.

Imagine if govt took over the 20,000 acres idle land owned by EAPCC. Provide amenities i.e. roads, water, electricity, sewer lines. Basically sell serviced plots at say 500K for an 1/8th. With a condition that the plot cannot be transferred to a third party without being developed. This would take care of brokers. Within two years, affordable housing would no longer be a buzzword but reality.

Ofcourse guys like @mugundaman would burn their fingers bigtime in the dustbowl because land prices would drop across the city.
wukan
#13 Posted : Monday, February 04, 2019 2:51:43 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,053
FRM2011 wrote:

@swenani, you have just painted a rosy picture of what would happen under Kibaki. Not Jubilee. These crooks actually want to build houses. The obvious incentive being that they will get their kickbacks from the contractors.

Imagine if govt took over the 20,000 acres idle land owned by EAPCC. Provide amenities i.e. roads, water, electricity, sewer lines. Basically sell serviced plots at say 500K for an 1/8th. With a condition that the plot cannot be transferred to a third party without being developed. This would take care of brokers. Within two years, affordable housing would no longer be a buzzword but reality.

Ofcourse guys like @mugundaman would burn their fingers bigtime in the dustbowl because land prices would drop across the city.


Dandora was a site and service scheme and it was not that successful. It is better for govt to plan and build the whole scheme and sell end products.
wal6807
#14 Posted : Monday, February 04, 2019 4:27:47 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/4/2011
Posts: 108
wukan wrote:
FRM2011 wrote:

@swenani, you have just painted a rosy picture of what would happen under Kibaki. Not Jubilee. These crooks actually want to build houses. The obvious incentive being that they will get their kickbacks from the contractors.

Imagine if govt took over the 20,000 acres idle land owned by EAPCC. Provide amenities i.e. roads, water, electricity, sewer lines. Basically sell serviced plots at say 500K for an 1/8th. With a condition that the plot cannot be transferred to a third party without being developed. This would take care of brokers. Within two years, affordable housing would no longer be a buzzword but reality.

Ofcourse guys like @mugundaman would burn their fingers bigtime in the dustbowl because land prices would drop across the city.


Dandora was a site and service scheme and it was not that successful. It is better for govt to plan and build the whole scheme and sell end products.


Did it have development guidelines what were strictly enforced ? , even if govt built the houses without enforcement we will still end up with another Buruburu. But then again enforcement is a long term cost.
"Children today are tyrants. They contradict their parents, gobble their food, and tyrannize their teachers."
•Socrates (470?-399 BC)
FRM2011
#15 Posted : Monday, February 04, 2019 5:58:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/5/2010
Posts: 2,251
wukan wrote:
FRM2011 wrote:

@swenani, you have just painted a rosy picture of what would happen under Kibaki. Not Jubilee. These crooks actually want to build houses. The obvious incentive being that they will get their kickbacks from the contractors.

Imagine if govt took over the 20,000 acres idle land owned by EAPCC. Provide amenities i.e. roads, water, electricity, sewer lines. Basically sell serviced plots at say 500K for an 1/8th. With a condition that the plot cannot be transferred to a third party without being developed. This would take care of brokers. Within two years, affordable housing would no longer be a buzzword but reality.

Ofcourse guys like @mugundaman would burn their fingers bigtime in the dustbowl because land prices would drop across the city.


Dandora was a site and service scheme and it was not that successful. It is better for govt to plan and build the whole scheme and sell end products.



For Jubilee, you need to triple the cost to take care of corruption, wastage and outright incompetence. So a 100sqm apartment that would cost an individual 2M will cost Jubilee 6M.
limanika
#16 Posted : Monday, February 04, 2019 9:33:07 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 1,881
wukan wrote:
limanika wrote:
Our economists have failed us. Nobody even the commentators in fourth estate can see the hole govt is digging?

If there was anything urgent the govt needed to do, forget Big 4, is to come up with strategies to create productive jobs (not nys type) for thousands of youths graduating every year. Then, they will be able to rent houses and eventually build / buy for themselves. You don't create jobs by killing the property market coz that what will likely happen if AHP succeeds

If plan 'succeeds', there will be an oversupply of houses at below market prices. Rent for existing properties will drop. Suddenly, investors who borrowed to build rentals can't pay loans. Prices for existing pre affordable housing property will drop. Suddenly, banks can't sell property to recover loans / mortgages in case of defaulters. Welcome to financial crisis. Since independence we have not had a govt that has sunk lower in terms of economic planning.

Right here we arm chair economists could tell (and commented as such) that govt would get nowhere with projects such as:

Galana kulalu, annuity road program, laptop, 5000MW plan, 47 stadia, etc etc and now BRT. As sure as sunrise, they failed flat as expected. Do we have economists in govt? And do they have a voice? Are they given opportunity to speak/critique govt plans? Are they listened to?



Of all the Uhuru plans the one I fully support is the affordable housing. From the big picture Uhuru is doing what man Jomo did for the landless in the 60's. A house today in urban centre is like a shamba back then. It gives people a stake in the economy unlike the shamba it gives them obligations to repay loans(they have to be productive). Giving people shambas in the 60's only made people into subsistence farmers. The lucky ones are the ones who came to urban centres. I actually think that AHP should succeed so that the rural idlers calling themselves farmers move out to urban areas and the rural areas become empty and proper land consolidation can be done for good profitable farming.

I don't think you will have an oversupply any time soon. It will not destroy the property market(Turkey has been doing AHP for over a decade). The market currently does not cater for the lower end of the market. The entry point for middle class home is 10m not a lot of the working population will afford that amount. You have a situation where the middle class is renting premises which ideally should go to lower income households(e.g. Kibera highrise). There are areas in kiambu, kitengela, Athi river, kikuyu which used to quite cheap but the entry of the middle class pushed rents higher.

Lower rent will also result in higher savings for households. If you were spending 20k and the market rent drops to 15K due to AHP then that's a good saving. For the landlords in Pipeline and Embakasi who were building vertical slums without amenities then too bad for them.







Best solution is to create jobs, have people earn higher wages on average and then they can afford houses they want at market rates. But because jubilee failed to grow the economy, they want to climb tree from the top. By the way, it's one year later since the promise and by now we're supposed to have 100,000 houses of the 500k done and dusted. How many are complete?
tom_boy
#17 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2019 9:34:51 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 662
limanika wrote:
wukan wrote:
limanika wrote:
Our economists have failed us. Nobody even the commentators in fourth estate can see the hole govt is digging?

If there was anything urgent the govt needed to do, forget Big 4, is to come up with strategies to create productive jobs (not nys type) for thousands of youths graduating every year. Then, they will be able to rent houses and eventually build / buy for themselves. You don't create jobs by killing the property market coz that what will likely happen if AHP succeeds

If plan 'succeeds', there will be an oversupply of houses at below market prices. Rent for existing properties will drop. Suddenly, investors who borrowed to build rentals can't pay loans. Prices for existing pre affordable housing property will drop. Suddenly, banks can't sell property to recover loans / mortgages in case of defaulters. Welcome to financial crisis. Since independence we have not had a govt that has sunk lower in terms of economic planning.

Right here we arm chair economists could tell (and commented as such) that govt would get nowhere with projects such as:

Galana kulalu, annuity road program, laptop, 5000MW plan, 47 stadia, etc etc and now BRT. As sure as sunrise, they failed flat as expected. Do we have economists in govt? And do they have a voice? Are they given opportunity to speak/critique govt plans? Are they listened to?



Of all the Uhuru plans the one I fully support is the affordable housing.Thats good. All have a right to personal opinion From the big picture Uhuru is doing what man Jomo did for the landless in the 60's. Jomo stole land and lots of it.
Land meant to be redistributed to people. Hived off govt land for his own use.
A house today in urban centre is like a shamba back then. What!A shamba gives food.
A house requires mortgage or at very least maintenance and rates to be paid. AHP houses are not meant to be for people to buy and rent out.
It gives people a stake in the economy unlike the shamba it gives them obligations to repay loans(they have to be productive). So the modus operandi is lets grow the economy by making people acquire houses so they can pay loans,
hurrraay Shame on you
Giving people shambas in the 60's only made people into subsistence farmers. The lucky ones are the ones who came to urban centres. I actually think that AHP should succeed so that the rural idlers calling themselves farmers move out to urban areas and the rural areas become empty and proper land consolidation can be done for good profitable farming. Ridiculous.
Most rural dwellers have better quality of life than urban folk. They dont pay rent, dont necessarily buy food and they have some tasks to keep themselves occupied. Kids go to gava school. Nhif pays for minor health ailments. From a big picture perspective, most so called rural idlers have very good quality of life. True idlers if transposed to urban centre will just become thugs and drunkards.


I don't think you will have an oversupply any time soon. It will not destroy the property market(Turkey has been doing AHP for over a decade). The market currently does not cater for the lower end of the market. The entry point for middle class home is 10m not a lot of the working population will afford that amount. You have a situation where the middle class is renting premises which ideally should go to lower income households(e.g. Kibera highrise). There are areas in kiambu, kitengela, Athi river, kikuyu which used to quite cheap but the entry of the middle class pushed rents higher. I think you are very confused. Most so called middle class in kenya are a salary away from poverty. They will be the first to leave that 30k rent house and stay in the AHP house. In fact all houses with rent of 60k downwards will be severely affected

Lower rent will also result in higher savings for households. If you were spending 20k and the market rent drops to 15K due to AHP then that's a good saving. For the landlords in Pipeline and Embakasi who were building vertical slums without amenities then too bad for them.
You must be very jealous of these landlords.
FYI, they are meeting a need. Also, in an economy, we are all interconnected. Do not be surprised in mortgage defaults from these landlords you despise leads to almost impossible rates and conditions for new mortgage applicants.







Best solution is to create jobs, have people earn higher wages on average and then they can afford houses they want at market rates. But because jubilee failed to grow the economy, they want to climb tree from the top. By the way, it's one year later since the promise and by now we're supposed to have 100,000 houses of the 500k done and dusted. How many are complete?

They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
wukan
#18 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2019 3:37:51 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,053
limanika wrote:

Best solution is to create jobs, have people earn higher wages on average and then they can afford houses they want at market rates. But because jubilee failed to grow the economy, they want to climb tree from the top. By the way, it's one year later since the promise and by now we're supposed to have 100,000 houses of the 500k done and dusted. How many are complete?


Jobs are not created in a vacuum. There is an ecosystem that generates jobs and that ecosystem needs to be built in the right way by having a compact urban form that is served by a functioning transport system. As the ecosystem becomes more complex then it generates higher wages jobs.

An example is Shenzhen turning peasant farmers into techies in 3 decades. See more in the youtube link(1hr long but worth your bundles)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGJ5cZnoodY

Even where jobs are available affording houses at market rates is quite hard. Ask @hardwood or @mugundaman how it feels doing 3 shifts to raise 2,000$ rent. In the US they had to come with freddie mac and fannie mae corporations to get affordable housing/mortgages and in Europe they have social housing.

Jubilee maybe a messed administration but there are a lot of good ideas gathering dust in shelves and affordable housing is one of them. It was proposed way back in 2005 during kibaki's term. Once they get the mechanics right then the roll out will be ok. I know they plan to turn Eastlands from housing a mere 20K to more than 350K(that's a whole city). That will take time but it's a step in the right direction.


hardwood
#19 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2019 6:52:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/28/2015
Posts: 8,537
Ex-Uhuru adviser says debt may affect growth in Kenya

https://www.businessdail...510-11dhwv7z/index.html

Quote:
Former senior executive adviser in the Office of President Uhuru Kenyatta now says Kenya overcommitted itself to debt and may struggle to curb borrowing spree in the wake of sluggish growth in tax revenues.

“If you look at 2011/2012, we were spending only about 11 per cent of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) directly to repay debt. We are now talking about 57 per cent of GDP in public debt.”

“If we reach a debt-GDP ratio of 74 per cent, basically a lot of our securities and bonds will be declared junk. That is a big threat,” said Dr Wagacha, who at one point chaired the Central Bank board.

Kenya’s total debt stands at Sh5.14 trillion, according to data from Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), with the Treasury projecting it to hit Sh7.17 trillion at the end of June 2022, the year Mr Kenyatta leaves office.

If that comes to pass, President Kenyatta will have contracted at least Sh5.27 trillion debt to implement his manifesto in 10 years in power, having inherited slightly more than Sh1.89 trillion in June 2013.
Angelica _ann
#20 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2019 6:58:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 10,241
hardwood wrote:
Ex-Uhuru adviser says debt may affect growth in Kenya

https://www.businessdail...510-11dhwv7z/index.html

Quote:
Former senior executive adviser in the Office of President Uhuru Kenyatta now says Kenya overcommitted itself to debt and may struggle to curb borrowing spree in the wake of sluggish growth in tax revenues.

“If you look at 2011/2012, we were spending only about 11 per cent of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) directly to repay debt. We are now talking about 57 per cent of GDP in public debt.”

“If we reach a debt-GDP ratio of 74 per cent, basically a lot of our securities and bonds will be declared junk. That is a big threat,” said Dr Wagacha, who at one point chaired the Central Bank board.

Kenya’s total debt stands at Sh5.14 trillion, according to data from Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), with the Treasury projecting it to hit Sh7.17 trillion at the end of June 2022, the year Mr Kenyatta leaves office.

If that comes to pass, President Kenyatta will have contracted at least Sh5.27 trillion debt to implement his manifesto in 10 years in power, having inherited slightly more than Sh1.89 trillion in June 2013.


Scaremongers, look at Japan etc we are far from it smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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