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KenyaRe FY19 - FY23 (Both Inclusive)
VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Saturday, March 30, 2019 10:04:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,581
Location: Nairobi
After the tough 2018, we are headed into a not so easy 2019.

KenyaRe did not have a stellar 2018 but I think the seeds for slow and steady growth have been planted. It will NOT be linear growth.

I have started analyzing the results. The NSE sent out the Financial Statements. Check the KenyaRe website for more information.

Price (29 Mar 2019): 11/-
EPS FY2018 (including FV Gains): 3.25
NAV/Share (31st Dec 2019): 40.53
Div FY 2018: 0.45/share (4% DY)
GoK: 60% (420mn of 700mn shares)

I want to focus on 2019-2023 as we progress through the years.

I have my concerns given GoK's 60% ownership which we saw playing out during the Boardroom Wars. Not good for KenyaRe's reputation.

This remains my only significant GoK-controlled investment. A core investment.

I don't care much for FV gains as part of the P&L but I am also cognizant that
(Re)Insurance firms make money off their investments and not the underwriting.

IFRS 17 kicks in in 2021. KenyaRe may need to take non-cash provisions for bad debts, potential bad debts, potential payouts/claims, etc.

Finally, given KenyaRe's cash position, upcoming elections, fraud and unforeseen disasters, there is a substantial element of risk.

In due course, I may choose to make this my "Bus" but there's stiff competition from Centum.

I have an aversion to GoK-controlled firms so I need to be sure whether KenyaRe makes sense for me but the low P/BV, low PER, cash/share and Mwarania in charge are pluses.

GoK ownership, competition (the mandatory cessation expires in 2020) and Boardroom wrangles don't inspire confidence.

Many have asked me "What next?" after KK was done and dusted. Well, let's start analyzing KenyaRe.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#2 Posted : Saturday, March 30, 2019 2:24:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,509
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
After the tough 2018, we are headed into a not so easy 2019.

KenyaRe did not have a stellar 2018 but I think the seeds for slow and steady growth have been planted. It will NOT be linear growth.

I have started analyzing the results. The NSE sent out the Financial Statements. Check the KenyaRe website for more information.

Price (29 Mar 2019): 11/-
EPS FY2018 (including FV Gains): 3.25
NAV/Share (31st Dec 2019): 40.53
Div FY 2018: 0.45/share (4% DY)
GoK: 60% (420mn of 700mn shares)

I want to focus on 2019-2023 as we progress through the years.

I have my concerns given GoK's 60% ownership which we saw playing out during the Boardroom Wars. Not good for KenyaRe's reputation.

This remains my only significant GoK-controlled investment. A core investment.

I don't care much for FV gains as part of the P&L but I am also cognizant that
(Re)Insurance firms make money off their investments and not the underwriting.

IFRS 17 kicks in in 2021. KenyaRe may need to take non-cash provisions for bad debts, potential bad debts, potential payouts/claims, etc.

Finally, given KenyaRe's cash position, upcoming elections, fraud and unforeseen disasters, there is a substantial element of risk.

In due course, I may choose to make this my "Bus" but there's stiff competition from Centum.

I have an aversion to GoK-controlled firms so I need to be sure whether KenyaRe makes sense for me but the low P/BV, low PER, cash/share and Mwarania in charge are pluses.

GoK ownership, competition (the mandatory cessation expires in 2020 and Boardroom wrangles don't inspire confidence.

Many have asked me "What next?" after KK was done and dusted. Well, let's start analyzing KenyaRe.


The only thing keeping KenyaRe in business...start by asking local insurers if they wanna do business with KenyaRe? The answer you get will give you a hint on this company's future...
mamilli
#3 Posted : Saturday, March 30, 2019 4:55:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/6/2015
Posts: 208
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
After the tough 2018, we are headed into a not so easy 2019.

KenyaRe did not have a stellar 2018 but I think the seeds for slow and steady growth have been planted. It will NOT be linear growth.

I have started analyzing the results. The NSE sent out the Financial Statements. Check the KenyaRe website for more information.

Price (29 Mar 2019): 11/-
EPS FY2018 (including FV Gains): 3.25
NAV/Share (31st Dec 2019): 40.53
Div FY 2018: 0.45/share (4% DY)
GoK: 60% (420mn of 700mn shares)

I want to focus on 2019-2023 as we progress through the years.

I have my concerns given GoK's 60% ownership which we saw playing out during the Boardroom Wars. Not good for KenyaRe's reputation.

This remains my only significant GoK-controlled investment. A core investment.

I don't care much for FV gains as part of the P&L but I am also cognizant that
(Re)Insurance firms make money off their investments and not the underwriting.

IFRS 17 kicks in in 2021. KenyaRe may need to take non-cash provisions for bad debts, potential bad debts, potential payouts/claims, etc.

Finally, given KenyaRe's cash position, upcoming elections, fraud and unforeseen disasters, there is a substantial element of risk.

In due course, I may choose to make this my "Bus" but there's stiff competition from Centum.

I have an aversion to GoK-controlled firms so I need to be sure whether KenyaRe makes sense for me but the low P/BV, low PER, cash/share and Mwarania in charge are pluses.

GoK ownership, competition (the mandatory cessation expires in 2020) and Boardroom wrangles don't inspire confidence.

Many have asked me "What next?" after KK was done and dusted. Well, let's start analyzing KenyaRe.


Unaona venye wazee uchambua stocks,a purely cerebral approach,no phrases like "i think,i feel,i hope"...when they hit the jackpot,it's casually dismissed as luck.To the up and coming traders,take notes.
The Bitcoin standard.
VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2019 10:42:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,581
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
After the tough 2018, we are headed into a not so easy 2019.

KenyaRe did not have a stellar 2018 but I think the seeds for slow and steady growth have been planted. It will NOT be linear growth.

I have started analyzing the results. The NSE sent out the Financial Statements. Check the KenyaRe website for more information.

Price (29 Mar 2019): 11/-
EPS FY2018 (including FV Gains): 3.25
NAV/Share (31st Dec 2019): 40.53
Div FY 2018: 0.45/share (4% DY)
GoK: 60% (420mn of 700mn shares)

I want to focus on 2019-2023 as we progress through the years.

I have my concerns given GoK's 60% ownership which we saw playing out during the Boardroom Wars. Not good for KenyaRe's reputation.

This remains my only significant GoK-controlled investment. A core investment.

I don't care much for FV gains as part of the P&L but I am also cognizant that
(Re)Insurance firms make money off their investments and not the underwriting.

IFRS 17 kicks in in 2021. KenyaRe may need to take non-cash provisions for bad debts, potential bad debts, potential payouts/claims, etc.

Finally, given KenyaRe's cash position, upcoming elections, fraud and unforeseen disasters, there is a substantial element of risk.

In due course, I may choose to make this my "Bus" but there's stiff competition from Centum.

I have an aversion to GoK-controlled firms so I need to be sure whether KenyaRe makes sense for me but the low P/BV, low PER, cash/share and Mwarania in charge are pluses.

GoK ownership, competition (the mandatory cessation expires in 2020 and Boardroom wrangles don't inspire confidence.

Many have asked me "What next?" after KK was done and dusted. Well, let's start analyzing KenyaRe.


The only thing keeping KenyaRe in business...start by asking local insurers if they wanna do business with KenyaRe? The answer you get will give you a hint on this company's future...
I asked a senior manager of a large KE insurance firm. He said they have no problems reinsuring with KenyaRe. It may not be representative.

KenyaRe may be in a position to have the period for mandatory cessions renewed given other African countries are doing the same.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
heri
#5 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 9:06:37 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 697
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
After the tough 2018, we are headed into a not so easy 2019.

KenyaRe did not have a stellar 2018 but I think the seeds for slow and steady growth have been planted. It will NOT be linear growth.

I have started analyzing the results. The NSE sent out the Financial Statements. Check the KenyaRe website for more information.

Price (29 Mar 2019): 11/-
EPS FY2018 (including FV Gains): 3.25
NAV/Share (31st Dec 2019): 40.53
Div FY 2018: 0.45/share (4% DY)
GoK: 60% (420mn of 700mn shares)

I want to focus on 2019-2023 as we progress through the years.

I have my concerns given GoK's 60% ownership which we saw playing out during the Boardroom Wars. Not good for KenyaRe's reputation.

This remains my only significant GoK-controlled investment. A core investment.

I don't care much for FV gains as part of the P&L but I am also cognizant that
(Re)Insurance firms make money off their investments and not the underwriting.

IFRS 17 kicks in in 2021. KenyaRe may need to take non-cash provisions for bad debts, potential bad debts, potential payouts/claims, etc.

Finally, given KenyaRe's cash position, upcoming elections, fraud and unforeseen disasters, there is a substantial element of risk.

In due course, I may choose to make this my "Bus" but there's stiff competition from Centum.

I have an aversion to GoK-controlled firms so I need to be sure whether KenyaRe makes sense for me but the low P/BV, low PER, cash/share and Mwarania in charge are pluses.

GoK ownership, competition (the mandatory cessation expires in 2020) and Boardroom wrangles don't inspire confidence.

Many have asked me "What next?" after KK was done and dusted. Well, let's start analyzing KenyaRe.


I wish you could share your analysis of Centum. To be honest i have not really looked at it but worry about Centum after DJ CK, Sidian Bank Losses, are they attempting to do too many things , is real estate not going to a slow down, debts? The question of heavy bonuses for management
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 9:26:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,581
Location: Nairobi
@heri - Let's discuss Centum in the Centum thread. I am trying to keep this thread focused on KenyaRe.

Yes, I have both Centum (Tier 2) and KenyaRe (Core) and I need to figure out the next steps.

Centum may become a core holding as well.

KenyaRe is different from my other investments given it is GoK-controlled. That is a huge concern given the issues we have seen. I like what Jadiah Mwarania and his team have done over the past 5 years. The share price (11/-) may not be indicative of the value inherent in KenyaRe but there is a GoK discount. Rightfully so.

One step at a time.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
tom_boy
#7 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 12:14:05 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 728
@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
rwitre
#8 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 12:32:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 379
Location: Nairobi
tom_boy wrote:
@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Mbona machungu
littledove
#9 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 12:33:40 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 744
Location: sky
tom_boy wrote:
@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.

i think this is a good idea to avoid investing blindly
or over investing in one share, i used to such mistake before i also decided to classify my potfolio although i use different term- (major minor and speculitave)
in this case i dont find myself over investing in illiquid stock and then having trouble selling
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
sparkly
#10 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 12:51:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 7,415
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
littledove wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.

i think this is a good idea to avoid investing blindly
or over investing in one share, i used to such mistake before i also decided to classify my potfolio although i use different term- (major minor and speculitave)
in this case i dont find myself over investing in illiquid stock and then having trouble selling


I also follow this approach. Classified my stocks as:

1. Blue Chip - big sized, dividend paying, fairly priced. I invest up to 40% in one stock. E.g KCB, Equity, Kengen.

2. Growth - Medium sized, above average growth or very fair market valuation but profitable. I invest up to 20% in one stock. E.g NIC, Stanbic, Serena, Centum.

3. Speculative - monkeys that might just come alive and earn me an outsized return. I invest up to 1% in one stock. E.g Home Afrika
Life is short. Live passionately.
MaichBlack
#11 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 1:17:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,321
tom_boy wrote:
@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.

Kids nowadays have absolutely no respect for their elders.

Mpaka mitoto ya diapers inataka kukufunza kufunga zip!!!

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#12 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 1:19:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,321
rwitre wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Mbona machungu

Then he comes here in 2025 to say how people were just lucky!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 3:26:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,581
Location: Nairobi
tom_boy wrote:
@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Tier 1 simply means "core" as in I am heavily invested. No more than 5 stocks which comprise 70-80% of the assets.
Tier 2 combined is 15-20%
Tier 3 are teeny positions I have. Many are historical or speculative. Money I can afford to lose without losing any sleep. Combined less than 5%.

You said: "Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term."
Buffett quotes his mentor, Ben Graham: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#14 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 5:32:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 7,415
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
MaichBlack wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.

Kids nowadays have absolutely no respect for their elders.

Mpaka mitoto ya diapers inataka kukufunza kufunga zip!!!

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Life is short. Live passionately.
sparkly
#15 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 5:37:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 7,415
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Tier 1 simply means "core" as in I am heavily invested. No more than 5 stocks which comprise 70-80% of the assets.
Tier 2 combined is 15-20%
Tier 3 are teeny positions I have. Many are historical or speculative. Money I can afford to lose without losing any sleep. Combined less than 5%.

You said: "Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term."
Buffett quotes his mentor, Ben Graham: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”


Lucky you to be liquid from KK when there are so many bargains.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2019 8:32:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,581
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Tier 1 simply means "core" as in I am heavily invested. No more than 5 stocks which comprise 70-80% of the assets.
Tier 2 combined is 15-20%
Tier 3 are teeny positions I have. Many are historical or speculative. Money I can afford to lose without losing any sleep. Combined less than 5%.

You said: "Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term."
Buffett quotes his mentor, Ben Graham: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”


Lucky you to be liquid from KK when there are so many bargains.

Dancing Dancing Dancing
Also @maichblack @fyatu and many others.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Tuesday, April 02, 2019 3:59:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,581
Location: Nairobi
I think most (listed) insurance firms have released their results. Has Jubilee released its results?

KenyaRe is among the best performers given many have experienced losses and not just a reduction in profitability.

Of course, there are differences between insurance firms and re-insurance firms coupled with the "favorite son" treatment with the mandatory cessions.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Fyatu
#18 Posted : Tuesday, April 02, 2019 4:07:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,657
Location: Nakuru
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Tier 1 simply means "core" as in I am heavily invested. No more than 5 stocks which comprise 70-80% of the assets.
Tier 2 combined is 15-20%
Tier 3 are teeny positions I have. Many are historical or speculative. Money I can afford to lose without losing any sleep. Combined less than 5%.

You said: "Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term."
Buffett quotes his mentor, Ben Graham: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”


Lucky you to be liquid from KK when there are so many bargains.

Dancing Dancing Dancing
Also @maichblack @fyatu and many others.


I am toying with the idea of James Mworia working hard for me in the next 5 - 10 years. That is where i next intend to go heavy on.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Fyatu
#19 Posted : Tuesday, April 02, 2019 4:13:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,657
Location: Nakuru
VituVingiSana wrote:
After the tough 2018, we are headed into a not so easy 2019.

KenyaRe did not have a stellar 2018 but I think the seeds for slow and steady growth have been planted. It will NOT be linear growth.

I have started analyzing the results. The NSE sent out the Financial Statements. Check the KenyaRe website for more information.

Price (29 Mar 2019): 11/-
EPS FY2018 (including FV Gains): 3.25
NAV/Share (31st Dec 2019): 40.53
Div FY 2018: 0.45/share (4% DY)
GoK: 60% (420mn of 700mn shares)

I want to focus on 2019-2023 as we progress through the years.

I have my concerns given GoK's 60% ownership which we saw playing out during the Boardroom Wars. Not good for KenyaRe's reputation.

This remains my only significant GoK-controlled investment. A core investment.

I don't care much for FV gains as part of the P&L but I am also cognizant that
(Re)Insurance firms make money off their investments and not the underwriting.

IFRS 17 kicks in in 2021. KenyaRe may need to take non-cash provisions for bad debts, potential bad debts, potential payouts/claims, etc.

Finally, given KenyaRe's cash position, upcoming elections, fraud and unforeseen disasters, there is a substantial element of risk.

In due course, I may choose to make this my "Bus" but there's stiff competition from Centum.

I have an aversion to GoK-controlled firms so I need to be sure whether KenyaRe makes sense for me but the low P/BV, low PER, cash/share and Mwarania in charge are pluses.

GoK ownership, competition (the mandatory cessation expires in 2020) and Boardroom wrangles don't inspire confidence.

Many have asked me "What next?" after KK was done and dusted. Well, let's start analyzing KenyaRe.



The fundamentals of this one are very very ideal. I especially like the >25% earnings and a PE of sub-4. Generally, these GoK laggards(Kenya power and Kengen included) look very nice on paper but require nuts-of-steel to hold.I guess that is the price one will have to pay for the windfall one day.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Ericsson
#20 Posted : Wednesday, April 03, 2019 9:22:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,718
Location: NAIROBI
@vvs
Kenya Re are lucky not to have invested in corporate bonds and deposits of companies that have gone under like ARM,Real people
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