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Safaricom 2019/2020
Viviva
#81 Posted : Friday, September 20, 2019 3:35:33 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/3/2019
Posts: 12
Location: Uk
Share price done fairly well despite stock going ex dividend. What target price are we looking at right now? Driver seems to be the anticipation of half year announcement.
Angelica _ann
#82 Posted : Friday, September 20, 2019 3:41:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 10,869
Viviva wrote:
Share price done fairly well despite stock going ex dividend. What target price are we looking at right now? Driver seems to be the anticipation of half year announcement.


Kes 35.5 bob as per the charts.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Ericsson
#83 Posted : Wednesday, September 25, 2019 12:38:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,450
Location: NAIROBI
Angelica _ann wrote:
Viviva wrote:
Share price done fairly well despite stock going ex dividend. What target price are we looking at right now? Driver seems to be the anticipation of half year announcement.


Kes 35.5 bob as per the charts.


Safaricom closed 2018 at sh.22.20 per share
rwitre
#84 Posted : Wednesday, September 25, 2019 12:46:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 374
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Viviva wrote:
Share price done fairly well despite stock going ex dividend. What target price are we looking at right now? Driver seems to be the anticipation of half year announcement.


Kes 35.5 bob as per the charts.


Safaricom closed 2018 at sh.22.20 per share


Tunangojea Christmas discount Laughing out loudly
Ericsson
#85 Posted : Wednesday, September 25, 2019 7:06:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,450
Location: NAIROBI
Angelica _ann wrote:
Viviva wrote:
Share price done fairly well despite stock going ex dividend. What target price are we looking at right now? Driver seems to be the anticipation of half year announcement.


Kes 35.5 bob as per the charts.


Far fetched in the current bearish market
Viviva
#86 Posted : Thursday, September 26, 2019 11:10:48 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/3/2019
Posts: 12
Location: Uk
"From the resulting gain on its closest competitor, Safaricom now commands a greater 63.5 percent share of the market having registered new customer additions to hit 33.1 million subscriptions from 31.8 million subscribers in March.

Airtel has meanwhile seen its first regression in the growth of its customer base in as many months shedding off 479,419 subscribers in the three months to June.

Airtel and Telkom, who remain the subject of an ongoing merger, still hold the potential to stage an upset on the leading telecoms operator in spite of registering a mixed performance in the growth of their differentiated consumer bases in the review period."

https://citizentv.co.ke/...er-subscriptions-283763/
Ericsson
#87 Posted : Thursday, September 26, 2019 12:57:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,450
Location: NAIROBI
[quote=Viviva]"From the resulting gain on its closest competitor, Safaricom now commands a greater 63.5 percent share of the market having registered new customer additions to hit 33.1 million subscriptions from 31.8 million subscribers in March.

Airtel has meanwhile seen its first regression in the growth of its customer base in as many months shedding off 479,419 subscribers in the three months to June.

Airtel and Telkom, who remain the subject of an ongoing merger, still hold the potential to stage an upset on the leading telecoms operator in spite of registering a mixed performance in the growth of their differentiated consumer bases in the review period."

https://citizentv.co.ke/...r-subscriptions-283763/[/quote]



Fixed Data subscriptions Safaricom and Wananchi are at neck to neck
Safaricom has a market share of 32.7% vs Wananchi 34.8%
Lolest!
#88 Posted : Thursday, October 03, 2019 7:52:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 11,737
Location: Kianjokoma
Viviva wrote:
"From the resulting gain on its closest competitor, Safaricom now commands a greater 63.5 percent share of the market having registered new customer additions to hit 33.1 million subscriptions from 31.8 million subscribers in March.

Airtel has meanwhile seen its first regression in the growth of its customer base in as many months shedding off 479,419 subscribers in the three months to June.

Airtel and Telkom, who remain the subject of an ongoing merger, still hold the potential to stage an upset on the leading telecoms operator in spite of registering a mixed performance in the growth of their differentiated consumer bases in the review period."

https://citizentv.co.ke/...r-subscriptions-283763/


Interesting that 2 media houses deduced different things from the same report!

NMG wrote:
Safaricom’s share of mobile subscribers fell to 63.5 percent in the full year ended June, making it the lowest market share it has recorded in the last decade as rival Airtel steadily won over its customers.

The latest data from the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) shows that although Safaricom has the highest number of subscribers at 31.8 million, its voice market share and overall customer base has been shrinking over the years.

Safaricom’s market share last year was 65.4 percent.

Airtel, on the other hand, has increased its subscribers by 3.1 million to 12.8 million in the full year to June, with its market share climbing to 24.6 percent, its highest ever.

The last time the telco’s market share was this low in the full-year was the 2011/12 period when it was at 64 percent.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
Ericsson
#89 Posted : Thursday, October 03, 2019 8:13:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,450
Location: NAIROBI
Lolest! wrote:
Viviva wrote:
"From the resulting gain on its closest competitor, Safaricom now commands a greater 63.5 percent share of the market having registered new customer additions to hit 33.1 million subscriptions from 31.8 million subscribers in March.

Airtel has meanwhile seen its first regression in the growth of its customer base in as many months shedding off 479,419 subscribers in the three months to June.

Airtel and Telkom, who remain the subject of an ongoing merger, still hold the potential to stage an upset on the leading telecoms operator in spite of registering a mixed performance in the growth of their differentiated consumer bases in the review period."

https://citizentv.co.ke/...r-subscriptions-283763/


Interesting that 2 media houses deduced different things from the same report!

NMG wrote:
Safaricom’s share of mobile subscribers fell to 63.5 percent in the full year ended June, making it the lowest market share it has recorded in the last decade as rival Airtel steadily won over its customers.

The latest data from the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) shows that although Safaricom has the highest number of subscribers at 31.8 million, its voice market share and overall customer base has been shrinking over the years.

Safaricom’s market share last year was 65.4 percent.

Airtel, on the other hand, has increased its subscribers by 3.1 million to 12.8 million in the full year to June, with its market share climbing to 24.6 percent, its highest ever.

The last time the telco’s market share was this low in the full-year was the 2011/12 period when it was at 64 percent.


Nationmedia as usual with its bias reporting,no wonder they are loosing market share and profits declining for the past 6 years,they shouldn't complain about business environment being tough with this kind of mediocrity.
Meanwhile citizen is soaring high
kenyan2019
#90 Posted : Wednesday, October 09, 2019 9:11:17 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/30/2018
Posts: 39
M-Pesa revenue outside Kenya grew 42.7 percent to Sh6.2 billion in three months to June, showing the growing popularity of the mobile money service in Africa.

https://www.businessdail...5303928-jjyts/index.html
Ericsson
#91 Posted : Wednesday, October 09, 2019 9:15:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,450
Location: NAIROBI
[quote=kenyan2019]M-Pesa revenue outside Kenya grew 42.7 percent to Sh6.2 billion in three months to June, showing the growing popularity of the mobile money service in Africa.

https://www.businessdail...303928-jjyts/index.html[/quote]

Read the article keenly,it points to growth in other jurisdictions where vodacom has presence like DRC
Ericsson
#92 Posted : Thursday, October 10, 2019 11:28:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,450
Location: NAIROBI
Safaricom is considering buying a stake in Ethiopia state owned Ethio telecom, which has announced the sale of shares through a privatization plan or setting shop in Ethiopia from scratch.
watesh
#93 Posted : Thursday, October 10, 2019 11:36:33 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 740
Location: Kenya
Ericsson wrote:
Safaricom is considering buying a stake in Ethiopia state owned Ethio telecom, which has announced the sale of shares through a privatization plan or setting shop in Ethiopia from scratch.

Finally some light at the end of the tunnel in terms of expansion outside the country
Ericsson
#94 Posted : Saturday, October 12, 2019 2:54:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,450
Location: NAIROBI
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Safaricom is considering buying a stake in Ethiopia state owned Ethio telecom, which has announced the sale of shares through a privatization plan or setting shop in Ethiopia from scratch.

Finally some light at the end of the tunnel in terms of expansion outside the country


Ethio telecom 2018/2019 Financial results
Revenue - - - $1.2bn
Net income---$198mn

Let's say Company is valued at sh.200bn using a price to earnings ratio of 10
If the Ethiopian government sells a 20% stake, safaricom may have to folk out $400mn or ksh.40bn
VituVingiSana
#95 Posted : Saturday, October 12, 2019 6:25:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,450
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Safaricom is considering buying a stake in Ethiopia state owned Ethio telecom, which has announced the sale of shares through a privatization plan or setting shop in Ethiopia from scratch.

Finally some light at the end of the tunnel in terms of expansion outside the country


Ethio telecom 2018/2019 Financial results
Revenue - - - $1.2bn
Net income---$198mn

Let's say Company is valued at sh.200bn using a price to earnings ratio of 10
If the Ethiopian government sells a 20% stake, safaricom may have to folk out $400mn or ksh.40bn
Easy for Saf which paid 75bn+ in dividends last year.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#96 Posted : Saturday, October 12, 2019 9:15:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,450
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Safaricom is considering buying a stake in Ethiopia state owned Ethio telecom, which has announced the sale of shares through a privatization plan or setting shop in Ethiopia from scratch.

Finally some light at the end of the tunnel in terms of expansion outside the country


Ethio telecom 2018/2019 Financial results
Revenue - - - $1.2bn
Net income---$198mn

Let's say Company is valued at sh.200bn using a price to earnings ratio of 10
If the Ethiopian government sells a 20% stake, safaricom may have to folk out $400mn or ksh.40bn
Easy for Saf which paid 75bn+ in dividends last year.


Let's wait and see what % stake will up for sale
VituVingiSana
#97 Posted : Saturday, October 12, 2019 9:35:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,450
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Safaricom is considering buying a stake in Ethiopia state owned Ethio telecom, which has announced the sale of shares through a privatization plan or setting shop in Ethiopia from scratch.

Finally some light at the end of the tunnel in terms of expansion outside the country


Ethio telecom 2018/2019 Financial results
Revenue - - - $1.2bn
Net income---$198mn

Let's say Company is valued at sh.200bn using a price to earnings ratio of 10
If the Ethiopian government sells a 20% stake, safaricom may have to folk out $400mn or ksh.40bn
Easy for Saf which paid 75bn+ in dividends last year.

Let's wait and see what % stake will up for sale
I was using your numbers. Even 50% at 100bn ($1bn) is do-able by Saf given it has the ability to borrow based on its regular and substantial cash inflow and debt-free balance sheet.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#98 Posted : Saturday, October 12, 2019 10:50:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,450
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Safaricom is considering buying a stake in Ethiopia state owned Ethio telecom, which has announced the sale of shares through a privatization plan or setting shop in Ethiopia from scratch.

Finally some light at the end of the tunnel in terms of expansion outside the country


Ethio telecom 2018/2019 Financial results
Revenue - - - $1.2bn
Net income---$198mn

Let's say Company is valued at sh.200bn using a price to earnings ratio of 10
If the Ethiopian government sells a 20% stake, safaricom may have to folk out $400mn or ksh.40bn
Easy for Saf which paid 75bn+ in dividends last year.

Let's wait and see what % stake will up for sale
I was using your numbers. Even 50% at 100bn ($1bn) is do-able by Saf given it has the ability to borrow based on its regular and substantial cash inflow and debt-free balance sheet.


Borrowing means it may go with a foreign bank or do a syndicated loan with local banks.
Ethiopian government has given itself a timeline to complete by March 2020 and announce the winners.
VituVingiSana
#99 Posted : Sunday, October 13, 2019 9:15:55 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,450
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Safaricom is considering buying a stake in Ethiopia state owned Ethio telecom, which has announced the sale of shares through a privatization plan or setting shop in Ethiopia from scratch.

Finally some light at the end of the tunnel in terms of expansion outside the country


Ethio telecom 2018/2019 Financial results
Revenue - - - $1.2bn
Net income---$198mn

Let's say Company is valued at sh.200bn using a price to earnings ratio of 10
If the Ethiopian government sells a 20% stake, safaricom may have to folk out $400mn or ksh.40bn
Easy for Saf which paid 75bn+ in dividends last year.

Let's wait and see what % stake will up for sale
I was using your numbers. Even 50% at 100bn ($1bn) is do-able by Saf given it has the ability to borrow based on its regular and substantial cash inflow and debt-free balance sheet.


Borrowing means it may go with a foreign bank or do a syndicated loan with local banks.
Ethiopian government has given itself a timeline to complete by March 2020 and announce the winners.
Easy for Safaricom to line up $1bn in financing within 3 months after the "award" given its strong cashflow, balance sheet and parent.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
shocks
#100 Posted : Sunday, October 13, 2019 12:18:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2009
Posts: 338
Big question is will ethiopia let such a critical industry be run by a company that a neighbouring government owns 35% of
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