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4 Pages<1234>
2020 Watch List - Buy/Sell
FUNKY
#21 Posted : Friday, January 24, 2020 2:02:47 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,591
Ericsson wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
mufasa wrote:

mwekez@ji wrote:
GENGHIS PLAYBOOK 2020…Harnessing Value

Dear Investors,

The Kenyan market still trades at a historical discount despite rally on key counters and potential downward shifts in the market will lead to attractive entry points. Valuations are still attractive for some of the counters especially stocks that missed out on last year’s rally despite their attractive prices and strong fundamentals including EABL, KenGen and KCB. Foreign investor inflow at the NSE is expected to persist during the year from stronger earnings from the key stocks and anchored by a stable currency (estimated at KES 100 - 104), which gained against USD for second year running.

On the economic front, we expect a GDP growth rate of 5.7% with expected protracted challenges in private consumption due deterioration in the business environment. Additionally, we do not see government achieve its fiscal consolidation efforts (5.6% fiscal deficit) expected at 7.0% this year.

By incorporating the key macro and corporate factors, the Genghis Capital Playbook 2020 seeks to bridge the gap between our clients and our research material. We move away from the traditional valuation reports and run our own Kenyan notional Equities and Fixed Income portfolios. These are constructed along similar mandates to those faced by our clients and the performance is tracked and our commentary along with our results published via our Genghis Weekly Report and Bloomberg terminal.




KENGEN IS A VALUE TRAP


I will say kengen is value for money currently...it is one of the cheapest share available with very good fundamentals

Good fundamentals like delayed FY results


Delayed results are due to no auditor general to sign them
xtina
#22 Posted : Monday, January 27, 2020 10:40:22 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 289
There is a downward trend. On Jan 10th NASI was 171.36. Today 27th Jan, NASI is at 164.98. Time to load up more shares......
Ericsson
#23 Posted : Monday, January 27, 2020 11:02:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,019
Location: NAIROBI
xtina wrote:
There is a downward trend. On Jan 10th NASI was 171.36. Today 27th Jan, NASI is at 164.98. Time to load up more shares......


Still early
Extraterrestrial
#24 Posted : Monday, January 27, 2020 11:55:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/17/2018
Posts: 116
Location: Mars
Locust invasion is the worst in 70 years, almost a Biblical event.

With 34% of the economy relying on the agricultural sector (2018), food security is at risk; food inflation has already blown past a 2 year high.

Let's hope that the horticultural and tea areas remain safe because a shock reduction in export proceeds, combined with increasingly evident need for food imports will put pressure on the Shilling. Freed up money from bank lending will also increase imports.

On the plus side, bank earnings have the best chance of growing.

Telco is at risk; I just saw Telkom offering 50 GB monthly at 3k. Compare to SafariCON.

FDI inflows fell below Uganda last year, a sad event.

Manufacturing sector continues to grapple with low productivity and high costs.

Reserves will need new debt to replenish and they are already at an almost one year low. With an increasingly critical stance taken by World Bank and IMF on Kenya's debt situation, it will be hard to borrow much at commercial rates externally, concessional loans will come with some very uncomfortable conditions and domestic debt will continue to be in high demand, crowding out private sector.

Nonetheless, Safaricom and tier one banks are attractive to long-term investors on a forward PE and dividend yield basis. The entry price is what matters as you want to watch your winners play about, not your losers flop around.
Ericsson
#25 Posted : Monday, January 27, 2020 12:42:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,019
Location: NAIROBI
Extraterrestrial wrote:
Locust invasion is the worst in 70 years, almost a Biblical event.

With 34% of the economy relying on the agricultural sector (2018), food security is at risk; food inflation has already blown past a 2 year high.
The cost of corruption .The government doesn't care,country is now on campaign mode courtesy of BBI

Let's hope that the horticultural and tea areas remain safe because a shock reduction in export proceeds, combined with increasingly evident need for food imports will put pressure on the Shilling. Freed up money from bank lending will also increase imports.

On the plus side, bank earnings have the best chance of growing.
Explain how with job losses and auctions the order of the day

Telco is at risk; I just saw Telkom offering 50 GB monthly at 3k. Compare to SafariCON.
What about Telkom kenya data/4G/3G network coverage

FDI inflows fell below Uganda last year, a sad event.

Manufacturing sector continues to grapple with low productivity and high costs.
Manufacturing intentionally been killed,if you want to rule people ruthlessly,make them hungry and desperate first

Reserves will need new debt to replenish and they are already at an almost one year low. With an increasingly critical stance taken by World Bank and IMF on Kenya's debt situation, it will be hard to borrow much at commercial rates externally, concessional loans will come with some very uncomfortable conditions and domestic debt will continue to be in high demand, crowding out private sector.
It will take ten years with a good leader to repair the mess created

Nonetheless, Safaricom and tier one banks are attractive to long-term investors on a forward PE and dividend yield basis. The entry price is what matters as you want to watch your winners play about, not your losers flop around.

Plus counters with low debt and expanded regionally
xtina
#26 Posted : Monday, January 27, 2020 1:16:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 289
Ericsson wrote:
Extraterrestrial wrote:
Locust invasion is the worst in 70 years, almost a Biblical event.

With 34% of the economy relying on the agricultural sector (2018), food security is at risk; food inflation has already blown past a 2 year high.
The cost of corruption .The government doesn't care,country is now on campaign mode courtesy of BBI

Let's hope that the horticultural and tea areas remain safe because a shock reduction in export proceeds, combined with increasingly evident need for food imports will put pressure on the Shilling. Freed up money from bank lending will also increase imports.

On the plus side, bank earnings have the best chance of growing.
Explain how with job losses and auctions the order of the day

Telco is at risk; I just saw Telkom offering 50 GB monthly at 3k. Compare to SafariCON.
What about Telkom kenya data/4G/3G network coverage

FDI inflows fell below Uganda last year, a sad event.

Manufacturing sector continues to grapple with low productivity and high costs.
Manufacturing intentionally been killed,if you want to rule people ruthlessly,make them hungry and desperate first

Reserves will need new debt to replenish and they are already at an almost one year low. With an increasingly critical stance taken by World Bank and IMF on Kenya's debt situation, it will be hard to borrow much at commercial rates externally, concessional loans will come with some very uncomfortable conditions and domestic debt will continue to be in high demand, crowding out private sector.
It will take ten years with a good leader to repair the mess created

Nonetheless, Safaricom and tier one banks are attractive to long-term investors on a forward PE and dividend yield basis. The entry price is what matters as you want to watch your winners play about, not your losers flop around.

Plus counters with low debt and expanded regionally


Dude you are extremely pessimistic
Ericsson
#27 Posted : Monday, January 27, 2020 4:13:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,019
Location: NAIROBI
xtina wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Extraterrestrial wrote:
Locust invasion is the worst in 70 years, almost a Biblical event.

With 34% of the economy relying on the agricultural sector (2018), food security is at risk; food inflation has already blown past a 2 year high.
The cost of corruption .The government doesn't care,country is now on campaign mode courtesy of BBI

Let's hope that the horticultural and tea areas remain safe because a shock reduction in export proceeds, combined with increasingly evident need for food imports will put pressure on the Shilling. Freed up money from bank lending will also increase imports.

On the plus side, bank earnings have the best chance of growing.
Explain how with job losses and auctions the order of the day

Telco is at risk; I just saw Telkom offering 50 GB monthly at 3k. Compare to SafariCON.
What about Telkom kenya data/4G/3G network coverage

FDI inflows fell below Uganda last year, a sad event.

Manufacturing sector continues to grapple with low productivity and high costs.
Manufacturing intentionally been killed,if you want to rule people ruthlessly,make them hungry and desperate first

Reserves will need new debt to replenish and they are already at an almost one year low. With an increasingly critical stance taken by World Bank and IMF on Kenya's debt situation, it will be hard to borrow much at commercial rates externally, concessional loans will come with some very uncomfortable conditions and domestic debt will continue to be in high demand, crowding out private sector.
It will take ten years with a good leader to repair the mess created

Nonetheless, Safaricom and tier one banks are attractive to long-term investors on a forward PE and dividend yield basis. The entry price is what matters as you want to watch your winners play about, not your losers flop around.

Plus counters with low debt and expanded regionally


Dude you are extremely pessimistic

It's the reality siste.
Talk to people in treasury and you'll literally cry.
Ebenyo
#28 Posted : Tuesday, January 28, 2020 5:55:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,791
Location: Kitale
After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ericsson
#29 Posted : Wednesday, January 29, 2020 4:04:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,019
Location: NAIROBI
Ebenyo wrote:
After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve.


Mention the companies you have got rid of
Ebenyo
#30 Posted : Wednesday, January 29, 2020 9:05:34 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,791
Location: Kitale
Ericsson wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve.


Mention the companies you have got rid of




Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly I don't intend to discourage anyone who is still holding what I discard.As you know in this market even dead stocks have owners.So no need to mention.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ericsson
#31 Posted : Wednesday, January 29, 2020 11:43:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,019
Location: NAIROBI
Ebenyo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve.


Mention the companies you have got rid of




Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly I don't intend to discourage anyone who is still holding what I discard.As you know in this market even dead stocks have owners.So no need to mention.


The Motley Fool
@themotleyfool

When you commit to holding your investments at least 5+ years, here's what happens:

(1) You buy better companies

(2) You study different data and find that the market drops 1 out of 3 years (ho hum)

(3) You make lots more money after taxes

(4) Less stress, more fun & freedom
VituVingiSana
#32 Posted : Wednesday, January 29, 2020 8:28:09 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,716
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve.


Mention the companies you have got rid of




Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly I don't intend to discourage anyone who is still holding what I discard.As you know in this market even dead stocks have owners.So no need to mention.


The Motley Fool
@themotleyfool

When you commit to holding your investments at least 5+ years, here's what happens:

(1) You buy better companies

(2) You study different data and find that the market drops 1 out of 3 years (ho hum)

(3) You make lots more money after taxes

(4) Less stress, more fun & freedom
Applause Applause Applause
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Swenani
#33 Posted : Thursday, January 30, 2020 10:07:46 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,090
Location: Vacuum
Ebenyo wrote:
After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve.


As an experienced NSE trader and guru, I think your portfolio is too big if you are investing for long term. But if buying for speculation(<2yrs), then the potofolio is okay.


If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
Mainat
#34 Posted : Thursday, January 30, 2020 10:42:26 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,586
Why not Scangroup?
Sehemu ndio nyumba
babashuge
#35 Posted : Thursday, January 30, 2020 8:03:56 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/4/2019
Posts: 23
Location: Nairobi
Swenani wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve.


As an experienced NSE trader and guru, I think your portfolio is too big if you are investing for long term. But if buying for speculation(<2yrs), then the potofolio is okay.




Hmm, why is it too big for long term?
obiero
#36 Posted : Saturday, February 01, 2020 11:33:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,463
Location: nairobi
xtina wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Extraterrestrial wrote:
Locust invasion is the worst in 70 years, almost a Biblical event.

With 34% of the economy relying on the agricultural sector (2018), food security is at risk; food inflation has already blown past a 2 year high.
The cost of corruption .The government doesn't care,country is now on campaign mode courtesy of BBI

Let's hope that the horticultural and tea areas remain safe because a shock reduction in export proceeds, combined with increasingly evident need for food imports will put pressure on the Shilling. Freed up money from bank lending will also increase imports.

On the plus side, bank earnings have the best chance of growing.
Explain how with job losses and auctions the order of the day

Telco is at risk; I just saw Telkom offering 50 GB monthly at 3k. Compare to SafariCON.
What about Telkom kenya data/4G/3G network coverage

FDI inflows fell below Uganda last year, a sad event.

Manufacturing sector continues to grapple with low productivity and high costs.
Manufacturing intentionally been killed,if you want to rule people ruthlessly,make them hungry and desperate first

Reserves will need new debt to replenish and they are already at an almost one year low. With an increasingly critical stance taken by World Bank and IMF on Kenya's debt situation, it will be hard to borrow much at commercial rates externally, concessional loans will come with some very uncomfortable conditions and domestic debt will continue to be in high demand, crowding out private sector.
It will take ten years with a good leader to repair the mess created

Nonetheless, Safaricom and tier one banks are attractive to long-term investors on a forward PE and dividend yield basis. The entry price is what matters as you want to watch your winners play about, not your losers flop around.

Plus counters with low debt and expanded regionally


Dude you are extremely pessimistic

Understatement
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 2,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KNRE 100,000 ABP 2.90; KQ 392,100 ABP 8.32
Swenani
#37 Posted : Monday, February 03, 2020 1:45:44 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,090
Location: Vacuum
babashuge wrote:
Swenani wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve.


As an experienced NSE trader and guru, I think your portfolio is too big if you are investing for long term. But if buying for speculation(<2yrs), then the potofolio is okay.




Hmm, why is it too big for long term?


Not sure about the value of his portfolios but my thinking is that small traders need not have more than three counters
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
sparkly
#38 Posted : Monday, February 03, 2020 6:55:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 7,568
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Swenani wrote:
babashuge wrote:
Swenani wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve.


As an experienced NSE trader and guru, I think your portfolio is too big if you are investing for long term. But if buying for speculation(<2yrs), then the potofolio is okay.




Hmm, why is it too big for long term?


Not sure about the value of his portfolios but my thinking is that small traders need not have more than three counters


What do you consider a small trader?
Life is short. Live passionately.
Swenani
#39 Posted : Tuesday, February 04, 2020 5:01:08 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,090
Location: Vacuum
sparkly wrote:
Swenani wrote:
babashuge wrote:
Swenani wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve.


As an experienced NSE trader and guru, I think your portfolio is too big if you are investing for long term. But if buying for speculation(<2yrs), then the potofolio is okay.




Hmm, why is it too big for long term?


Not sure about the value of his portfolios but my thinking is that small traders need not have more than three counters


What do you consider a small trader?

Minority shareholders in any company
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
Ericsson
#40 Posted : Wednesday, February 05, 2020 10:07:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,019
Location: NAIROBI
sparkly wrote:
Swenani wrote:
babashuge wrote:
Swenani wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve.


As an experienced NSE trader and guru, I think your portfolio is too big if you are investing for long term. But if buying for speculation(<2yrs), then the potofolio is okay.




Hmm, why is it too big for long term?


Not sure about the value of his portfolios but my thinking is that small traders need not have more than three counters


What do you consider a small trader?

Someone who is yet to fully understand market dynamics,detail analysis of a company's financial statements.
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