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Realities of Trading Bitcoin etc
Jon Jones
#1 Posted : Monday, November 23, 2020 8:06:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 200
Location: Thika
Bitcoin traded at around $2 in 2012. Today, it trades at around $18,000. That's a 9000X return.

Most people who bought bitcoin at $2 did not become millionaires because trading is not that straightforward.

Between then and now, bitcoin crashed by over 80% 4 times. It also crashed between 30% and 80% many times. How many people in this world can endure an 86% drawdown and being underwater for 3 years?? Very few if any. And most of the few would have such a small stake that it is meaningless to their net worth, so it wouldn't matter.

We can be in the biggest bull market in history, but very few people will make a killing from this. Trading is a zero sum game so it is impossible for most people to make money. Your loss is my gain, and vice versa.

The cold reality of trading/speculation is that for you to make money, someone else has to lose it. And there will always be the same percentages of winners and losers. There may be more winners these days, but the percentages, they stay exactly the same.

That's why you hardly know any successful traders in real life because to be successful long-term, you have to be better/smarter than 90% of all market participants.

Anyone can buy a coin/commodity etc and get lucky afew times. But to make a career out of trading, you have to be smarter than 90% of all market participants.

The probability of making money short term is 50% (that's why people think they have a chance). The probability of long term success is 10%.
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
Swenani
#2 Posted : Tuesday, November 24, 2020 1:14:34 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,183
Location: Vacuum
Jon Jones wrote:
Bitcoin traded at around $2 in 2012. Today, it trades at around $18,000. That's a 9000X return.

Most people who bought bitcoin at $2 did not become millionaires because trading is not that straightforward.

Between then and now, bitcoin crashed by over 80% 4 times. It also crashed between 30% and 80% many times. How many people in this world can endure an 86% drawdown and being underwater for 3 years?? Very few if any. And most of the few would have such a small stake that it is meaningless to their net worth, so it wouldn't matter.

We can be in the biggest bull market in history, but very few people will make a killing from this. Trading is a zero sum game so it is impossible for most people to make money. Your loss is my gain, and vice versa.

The cold reality of trading/speculation is that for you to make money, someone else has to lose it. And there will always be the same percentages of winners and losers. There may be more winners these days, but the percentages, they stay exactly the same.

That's why you hardly know any successful traders in real life because to be successful long-term, you have to be better/smarter than 90% of all market participants.

Anyone can buy a coin/commodity etc and get lucky afew times. But to make a career out of trading, you have to be smarter than 90% of all market participants.

The probability of making money short term is 50% (that's why people think they have a chance). The probability of long term success is 10%.


@Madam madimoni, merge this thread with the bitcoin thread
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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