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Investors Lounge
muandiwambeu
#5061 Posted : Sunday, December 25, 2016 2:43:57 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 744
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Merry Xmas & a prosperous 2017. smile

Did I ever imagine mi doing green corn and sugarless black caffeine on Xmas and still make Merry. Eish! Thanks to the late short rains.Sad Sad Sad merry Xmas.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
subaru
#5062 Posted : Sunday, December 25, 2016 5:08:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2010
Posts: 369
Location: nairobie
muandiwambeu wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Merry Xmas & a prosperous 2017. smile

Did I ever imagine mi doing green corn and sugarless black caffeine on Xmas and still make Merry. Eish! Thanks to the late short rains.Sad Sad Sad merry Xmas.

Though we have burnt our fingers at the NSE let's celebrate as God has given us good health happy holidays wazuans
Gatheuzi
#5063 Posted : Wednesday, December 28, 2016 12:31:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 935
Meanwhile, on the other side of the atlantic....

Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse!
muandiwambeu
#5064 Posted : Friday, December 30, 2016 1:26:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 744
subaru wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Merry Xmas & a prosperous 2017. smile

Did I ever imagine mi doing green corn and sugarless black caffeine on Xmas and still make Merry. Eish! Thanks to the late short rains.Sad Sad Sad merry Xmas.

Though we have burnt our fingers at the NSE let's celebrate as God has given us good health happy holidays wazuans

Thanks @Subaru, could not dare eat the seed. Its that time you have to plant enmass and switch on hibernation mode ASAP.Applause Applause Applause smile
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
lochaz-index
#5065 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2017 11:54:05 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 713
Cbk is running scared of the sliding KES and has resorted to issuing warnings/threats to banks' executives.
Quote:
Executives from some of the country’s biggest lenders were summoned to meetings with policy makers last week, the people said, asking not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak about the issue. Others were telephoned individually and warned against making comments the regulator says are fueling the shilling’s decline, they said. Grace Okara, the central bank’s communications director, acknowledged by phone that she’d received an e-mailed request from Bloomberg for comment, without responding to the questions.

http://www.bloomberg.com...-over-shilling-comments
Cbk can't mount a serious KES defense and at the same time fend off a liquidity shortage in the banking sector. Which one to let go?
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Liv
#5066 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2017 12:16:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,188
lochaz-index wrote:
Cbk is running scared of the sliding KES and has resorted to issuing warnings/threats to banks' executives.
Quote:
Executives from some of the country’s biggest lenders were summoned to meetings with policy makers last week, the people said, asking not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak about the issue. Others were telephoned individually and warned against making comments the regulator says are fueling the shilling’s decline, they said. Grace Okara, the central bank’s communications director, acknowledged by phone that she’d received an e-mailed request from Bloomberg for comment, without responding to the questions.

http://www.bloomberg.com...-over-shilling-comments
Cbk can't mount a serious KES defense and at the same time fend off a liquidity shortage in the banking sector. Which one to let go?


Bloomberg commentary based on the views from Martin Oduor of Cytonn investment only.

And you take Cytonn views seriously?


Ericsson
#5067 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2017 12:26:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 3,609
Location: NAIROBI
lochaz-index wrote:
Cbk is running scared of the sliding KES and has resorted to issuing warnings/threats to banks' executives.
Quote:
Executives from some of the country’s biggest lenders were summoned to meetings with policy makers last week, the people said, asking not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak about the issue. Others were telephoned individually and warned against making comments the regulator says are fueling the shilling’s decline, they said. Grace Okara, the central bank’s communications director, acknowledged by phone that she’d received an e-mailed request from Bloomberg for comment, without responding to the questions.

http://www.bloomberg.com...-over-shilling-comments
Cbk can't mount a serious KES defense and at the same time fend off a liquidity shortage in the banking sector. Which one to let go?


Suspend the interest rate cap law all will be fine
Spikes
#5068 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2017 12:29:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 1,972
Liv wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Cbk is running scared of the sliding KES and has resorted to issuing warnings/threats to banks' executives.
Quote:
Executives from some of the country’s biggest lenders were summoned to meetings with policy makers last week, the people said, asking not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak about the issue. Others were telephoned individually and warned against making comments the regulator says are fueling the shilling’s decline, they said. Grace Okara, the central bank’s communications director, acknowledged by phone that she’d received an e-mailed request from Bloomberg for comment, without responding to the questions.

http://www.bloomberg.com...-over-shilling-comments
Cbk can't mount a serious KES defense and at the same time fend off a liquidity shortage in the banking sector. Which one to let go?


Bloomberg commentary based on the views from Martin Oduor of Cytonn investment only.

And you take Cytonn views seriously?





Cytonn analysts are never trusted . Take them seriously at your own peril....
John 1:46 "Nazareth! Can anything good come from there?" Nathaniel asked ."Come and see," said Philip.
lochaz-index
#5069 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2017 6:52:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 713
Spikes wrote:
Liv wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Cbk is running scared of the sliding KES and has resorted to issuing warnings/threats to banks' executives.
Quote:
Executives from some of the country’s biggest lenders were summoned to meetings with policy makers last week, the people said, asking not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak about the issue. Others were telephoned individually and warned against making comments the regulator says are fueling the shilling’s decline, they said. Grace Okara, the central bank’s communications director, acknowledged by phone that she’d received an e-mailed request from Bloomberg for comment, without responding to the questions.

http://www.bloomberg.com...-over-shilling-comments
Cbk can't mount a serious KES defense and at the same time fend off a liquidity shortage in the banking sector. Which one to let go?


Bloomberg commentary based on the views from Martin Oduor of Cytonn investment only.

And you take Cytonn views seriously?





Cytonn analysts are never trusted . Take them seriously at your own peril....

You are both missing the point by a country mile. Does taking cytonn seriously (or not) change the headwinds facing the KES? KES is the issue not the commentators.

Cbk pulls such stunts whenever KES is under sustained pressure...I wouldn't expect anything different this time.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
muandiwambeu
#5070 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2017 12:27:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 744
Divas marathon competition,Drool Drool Drool Drool Drool, ooooh no no no no! Looking at equity and kcb I change my mind asap. This is banking divas diving acrobatic competition. New lows record about to be tested. Equity is aiming below 19/=.
Total supply ekuity 2,725,500 vs 102,700 demanded on red zone. Hapa mi nachungulia tu nikiwa kando ya Barabara mawe zipite.
Vroooooom. Some fuse must have blown off someplace.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
alutacontinua
#5071 Posted : Thursday, January 12, 2017 12:05:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 285
Following Trumps first Press Conference since July yesterday the market has experienced an increase in volatility:

-DXY currently under 101. (USDJPY under 114)

-Gold just broke above $1200.

- US 10yr yield holding just above the November low.

- DowJones still hasn't hit 20k

Thinking this could be the start of unwinding of the Trump election win...
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
hisah
#5072 Posted : Thursday, January 12, 2017 12:14:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,963
alutacontinua wrote:
Following Trumps first Press Conference since July yesterday the market has experienced an increase in volatility:

-DXY currently under 101. (USDJPY under 114)

-Gold just broke above $1200.

- US 10yr yield holding just above the November low.

- DowJones still hasn't hit 20k

Thinking this could be the start of unwinding of the Trump election win...

Dow and USD need a breather to reload more bid power.

My target for Dow is 22000 by year end. The USD will resume its rally when the big euroland elections upsets eventually materialize. As long as the euro$ is heading sub 1.00 the USD will keep rallying.

Update: Just had a relook at the long term chart. If the Dow gets to 22000 or above then a top will likely set in as the Trump rally runs out of steam.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#5073 Posted : Thursday, January 12, 2017 6:08:14 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 713
hisah wrote:
alutacontinua wrote:
Following Trumps first Press Conference since July yesterday the market has experienced an increase in volatility:

-DXY currently under 101. (USDJPY under 114)

-Gold just broke above $1200.

- US 10yr yield holding just above the November low.

- DowJones still hasn't hit 20k

Thinking this could be the start of unwinding of the Trump election win...

Dow and USD need a breather to reload more bid power.

My target for Dow is 22000 by year end. The USD will resume its rally when the big euroland elections upsets eventually materialize. As long as the euro$ is heading sub 1.00 the USD will keep rallying.

Update: Just had a relook at the long term chart. If the Dow gets to 22000 or above then a top will likely set in as the Trump rally runs out of steam.

US stocks could very well outrun their fundamentals especially with the euro and the EU collapsing. Hedge funds have been cash biased for a while and might just decide to jump in the fray adding to the bidside precipated by capital inflows.

Most likely that rally will be short and intense before the inevitable crash whose timing has wrongfooted so many analysts.

My favorite EU election is the French one due to the odds stacked against Le Pen. This is closely followed by the German version. Italy appears to have - in the short term - dodged a mine field of a snap election via a court ruling. That would have made for an awesome hatrick against the establishment/EU coming from its biggest constituent economies in the same year.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5074 Posted : Monday, January 16, 2017 3:40:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 713
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
The naira has been through one tough roller coaster. The official devaluation downgraded it from 190 to 300+ vs the dollar in four months(June through to September) whilst the black market rate is still north of 400 having clocked a gruesome 436 about two weeks ago.

Having extended a zero interest loan to Nigeria, the IMF is pressing for further debasement and a fuel hike.

http://www.vanguardngr.c...itions-tough-handle-fg/

KE has taken two precautionary loans in two years, will it find itself in the same predicament in one years time?

African currencies are having a torrid time especially the ones with fixed pegs. The Egyptian pound is falling like a rock and is still expected to fall some more.
Quote:
Abdel Aal expects the CBE to follow the controlled flotation and drop the Egyptian pound’s value down against the US dollar by 30%, either once or twice.

More fx expenditures than revenue means the CBE doesn't have the ammo to float the currency despite the IMF's insistence.

The next 18-24 months are promising to be excruciating for developing economies and their currencies more so the African ones.

The fx market is a reliable pulse reader of coming moves in the financial world. Recent actions imply some heavy weight action is on the way probably in the bond market.
http://www.dailynewsegyp...ial-request-borrow-imf/


Take 3: at the bottom of the the sovereign bond barrel, Mozambique officially issues an SOS to its creditors. Will it be a soft default via debt restructuring as so desired or an outright default? Either way it has good company in the form of Venezuela.

Their debt to GDP ratio is projected to close at 130% by end of 2016. A developed nation can try to juggle this kind of debt, but for a developing economy it is toxic. This has grown from 62.4% in 2014, 53.1% in 2013 and 38.1% in 2011. Ring a bell? KE had better watch out. Things went south in a two year window and now they are in distress.

The metical lost 30% vs the dollar in 2015 and a further 70% this year which ballooned their debt. With inflation at a scorching 16.7% (from 2.4% in 2015), the BdM has hiked its rate to circa 23%.

http://www.wsj.com/artic...estructuring-1477418742

EA economies and currencies have held their ground quite admirably in 2016, will they manage the same feat?

Outright default it is for Mozambique! They can't hack the first coupon payment. Bond prices have plummeted to 54.9 cents on the dollar while yields have risen to 25.81%.

https://www.bloomberg.co...-eurobond-ministry-says

Official default is to be registered on Wednesday 18th January 2017. Venezuela should not be that far behind on this.

Meanwhile, both EM and FM assets are selling off caused by the news of the imminent default. 2017 is going to be a tough year for both these markets.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#5075 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 5:17:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,963
ECB: Any country leaving eurozone must settle bill first

Quote:
Any country leaving the eurozone would have to settle its claims or debts with the bloc’s payments system before severing ties, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has said.

It coincides with a groundswell of anti-euro sentiment in Italy and other eurozone states, fuelled in part by last June’s unprecedented decision by the United Kingdom to leave the EU.

“If a country were to leave the Eurosystem, its national central bank’s claims on or liabilities to the ECB would need to be settled in full,” Draghi said in the letter.


The question now is not if, but when will the euro die?! d'oh!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#5076 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 5:39:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,963
Dow finally scales above 20,000 handle.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#5077 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 5:41:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 11,698
hisah wrote:
Dow finally scales above 20,000 handle.


Interesting! Capital flight to US?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
lochaz-index
#5078 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 7:58:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 713
hisah wrote:
ECB: Any country leaving eurozone must settle bill first

Quote:
Any country leaving the eurozone would have to settle its claims or debts with the bloc’s payments system before severing ties, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has said.

It coincides with a groundswell of anti-euro sentiment in Italy and other eurozone states, fuelled in part by last June’s unprecedented decision by the United Kingdom to leave the EU.

“If a country were to leave the Eurosystem, its national central bank’s claims on or liabilities to the ECB would need to be settled in full,” Draghi said in the letter.


The question now is not if, but when will the euro die?! d'oh!

ECB clutching on straws. Resorting to threats and ultimatums to keep member states in the euro/EU is a sure sign of desperation and it still doesn't stop any of them from defaulting on their liabilities. Tough 2017 for the old continent.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5079 Posted : Thursday, January 26, 2017 6:39:33 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 713
Despite the doomsday predictions on the consequences of brexit, the UK posted a 2% GDP growth with H2 (post brexit) accelerating faster than H1.
Quote:
Alan Clarke, of Scotiabank, noted that the first six months since the Brexit vote had seen growth of almost 2.5% annualised, which is above the economy’s trend rate. “Clearly, life goes on, despite the Brexit vote.”

https://www.theguardian....ures-2016-brexit-economy
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5080 Posted : Thursday, January 26, 2017 9:16:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 713
For most of Europe, I think there is a huge iceberg called default risk that is masquerading as inflation expectations in bond yields.
Quote:
With eurozone growth and inflation expectations picking up, policy makers and market participants are starting to ask when the ECB’s extraordinary monetary stimulus measures will end.

The ECB’s negative interest-rate policy and massive bond-buying program have been key in pushing bond yields lower. But such measures, aimed at stimulating growth and inflation, may be less warranted if both are starting to gain momentum.

http://www.wsj.com/artic...ds-1j485449912?mod=e2tw
A small uptick in commodity prices is not sufficient to reflate their economies.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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